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BadBobbyJenks
03-30-2009, 01:57 PM
I have been fighting off boredom this morning so I went through the MLB prop bets for the 2009 season. Here is what I found most interesting, what do you think?

White Sox Props:

Team Wins - O/U 78

Carlos Quentin home runs - O/U 28 (over is even, under is -120)

In case you are wondering the odds for the Sox to win it all are 50-1.

MLB Player Props:

Prince Fielder home runs - O/U 35.5, I have already picked Prince to lead the majors in homers at 15-1.

Adam Dunn homers - 33.5 ( He has hit 40 5 straight years)

Jay Bruce homers - 29.5 seems too high to me right now.

Brandon Webb wins 15.5 (last 3 seasons 16, 18 and 22)

Roy Halladay wins - 15.5 has done this every season since 2002 except for two seasons with injuries in 04 and 05.

Chad Billingsley wins - 13.5 over is +115 (I think this is a steal, Chad is going to be competing for cy youngs in the near future)

MLB Team Win Totals:

Houston Astros 73.5 ( I think the over is a lock)

Los Angeles Dodgers 85 ( I see LA running away with the division)

Chicago Cubs 92.5 ( I hate to say it, but this looks like a lock)

oeo
03-30-2009, 03:03 PM
Chicago Cubs 92.5 ( I hate to say it, but this looks like a lock)

While they look like they should have another good season, nothing is a lock that high.

Eddo144
03-30-2009, 04:16 PM
I have been fighting off boredom this morning so I went through the MLB prop bets for the 2009 season. Here is what I found most interesting, what do you think?

White Sox Props:

Team Wins - O/U 78

Carlos Quentin home runs - O/U 28 (over is even, under is -120)

In case you are wondering the odds for the Sox to win it all are 50-1.
I'm pessimistic about the Sox this year, so I feel that's a dead-on O/U on the team wins. I'd like to say over, but I probably wouldn't touch it. It's all going to come down to pitching.

That Quentin HR O/U seems like a slam dunk over, especially getting better odds that way.

MLB Player Props:

Prince Fielder home runs - O/U 35.5, I have already picked Prince to lead the majors in homers at 15-1.

Adam Dunn homers - 33.5 ( He has hit 40 5 straight years)

Jay Bruce homers - 29.5 seems too high to me right now.
Over on Fielder.

Way over on Dunn - it seems like too easy a bet, though.

Under on Bruce.

Brandon Webb wins 15.5 (last 3 seasons 16, 18 and 22)

Roy Halladay wins - 15.5 has done this every season since 2002 except for two seasons with injuries in 04 and 05.

Chad Billingsley wins - 13.5 over is +115 (I think this is a steal, Chad is going to be competing for cy youngs in the near future)
I don't see Arizona being that good, so I could see Webb coming in under 15.5 quite easily.

Halladay, however, is just awesome, so I'd take the over there.

The Dodgers figure to run away with the NL West, and Billingsley is becoming a stud, so I think that over is a great bet.

MLB Team Win Totals:

Houston Astros 73.5 ( I think the over is a lock)

Los Angeles Dodgers 85 ( I see LA running away with the division)

Chicago Cubs 92.5 ( I hate to say it, but this looks like a lock)
I actually think the Astros come in under that number, but it's just so low I don't think I'd bet it. They're a pretty crappy team.

The Dodgers seem like a safe over.

As a previous poster said, the Cubs' O/U is just too high to feel that comfortable about betting the over. They should easily win the Central, though.

OmarLittle
03-30-2009, 04:50 PM
What site are you finding these on?

I use Pinnacle, and they had 09 prop bets until a couple days ago.

doublem23
03-30-2009, 05:15 PM
How will the new park in Washington affect Dunn's power numbers? I know he can hit and all, but he was playing in a launching pad at Cincinnati.

BadBobbyJenks
03-30-2009, 08:11 PM
What site are you finding these on?

I use Pinnacle, and they had 09 prop bets until a couple days ago.

These were on the website allpro, it is out of the UK.

BadBobbyJenks
03-30-2009, 08:16 PM
How will the new park in Washington affect Dunn's power numbers? I know he can hit and all, but he was playing in a launching pad at Cincinnati.

I honestly think it will have little effect. It is not like Dunn hits wall scrapers, he hits moon shots.

Eddo144
03-30-2009, 10:24 PM
How will the new park in Washington affect Dunn's power numbers? I know he can hit and all, but he was playing in a launching pad at Cincinnati.
My gut instinct is that it won't take away the seven HR needed for Dunn to fall under the line. But, my gut instinct isn't quite enough. Let's look at his numbers:

Dunn's home runs by year, during his famous 40-per-year streak:
Year | Total | Home | Away
2008 | 40 | 21 | 19
2007 | 40 | 19 | 21
2006 | 40 | 22 | 18
2005 | 40 | 26 | 14
Avg | 40 | 22 | 18

We can assume his road HR would stay the same. According to ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2008), Great American Ballpark (Cincinnati) had a HR park factor of 1.230 last year, meaning it increased HR by 23%. Nationals Park (Washington) had a HR park factor of 0.942, meaning it decreased HR by 5.8%.

Therefore, we can estimate his home HR using 22 * 0.942 / 1.230, which comes out to just under 17 HR, which would bring the total number of HR to 35. Basically, he hit five extra HR because he played in Cincinnati. That's still more than 33.5, so I'd feel comfortable betting on the over. As a previous poster said, it's not like Dunn's HRs barely clear the wall; most are no-doubters. I'm of the belief that park factors affect marginal hitters more than they affect big boppers like Dunn.

Still, it was an interesting exercise, and does make me feel a little less confident about the over bet.

Brian26
03-30-2009, 10:34 PM
As a previous poster said, the Cubs' O/U is just too high to feel that comfortable about betting the over. They should easily win the Central, though.I think St. Louis and Cincinnatti are going to surprise a lot of people.

getonbckthr
03-30-2009, 10:48 PM
I went gut pick and took Grady Sizemore at 75:1 for HomeRun leader. I got mine at Bodog.

BadBobbyJenks
03-30-2009, 11:50 PM
I went gut pick and took Grady Sizemore at 75:1 for HomeRun leader. I got mine at Bodog.

Id like to see his MVP line, but I don't think he has a shot to hit 45+.