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thedudeabides
03-12-2009, 06:06 PM
This is a good article by Rosenthal addressing the internal discussion and pros and cons. I think it covers a couple of different viewpoints fairly well.


http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9325900/Rookie-hurler-tempting-Tigers-to-keep-him-up

There has been a lot of discussion about Beckham making the team, but this is has to be an even bigger debate between Tigers fans. I'm sure Oblong, or one of our other resident Tiger fans can chime in with the temperament amongst Tigers fans on the subject.

guillensdisciple
03-12-2009, 09:25 PM
I'm confused, and probably too new to know this, but how many Tigers fans are there on this forum?

As for the tigers, I really hope D-Will can rebound. Loved that guy on the Marlins, and it would be a shame if his career disappeared.

DumpJerry
03-12-2009, 09:39 PM
I'm confused, and probably too new to know this, but how many Tigers fans are there on this forum?

As for the tigers, I really hope D-Will can rebound. Loved that guy on the Marlins, and it would be a shame if his career disappeared.
We have quite a few Kittie fans here. They want to see what it feels like to support a winner.....

Dontrelle is done. His last couple of years with the Marlins were not spectacular and then he met the AL last year......By the end of last year he had trouble finding the Plate in A ball.

rdivaldi
03-12-2009, 09:43 PM
Porcello is the most polarizing young player discussed on WSI outside of the White Sox system...

whitesox901
03-12-2009, 09:57 PM
good, that just shows how bad Detroit really is, and that 2006 was a fluke year

Oblong
03-13-2009, 04:55 PM
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090313/SPORTS0104/903130368/&imw=Y

There's another article on the subject.

You can put me down in the "cautious" camp. I want him at AA where there is less pressure and he can still work on things. Now if they say there's nothing left to work on... well that's for the scouts and coaches.

Given that he'll be on a strict pitch limit I am not sure of the prospects of knowing that every fifth game you'll most likely be in your bullpen in the fifth or sixth inning at best.

Maybe he is special. I've heard a lot of rave reviews from scouts and others who follow this sort of thing. I won't pretend to be one.

Domeshot17
03-13-2009, 05:16 PM
As a big fan of the kid, I hope they don't rush him. He just made a huge adjustment to the way he pitched last year. He went from trying to strike everyone out to pitching to contact and forcing a ton of ground balls. It worked out great for him, but he still has some growing to do. Plus if he pitches for the Tigers, the reality of having to cheer against him plus knowing he passed on him is going to suck.

I would hate to see him go the route of Jeff Weaver, and have a huge future go down the drain because he was rushed.

Oblong
03-13-2009, 05:22 PM
I think Weaver's problem was between his head. But I agree with your point overall.

The fact that Porcello may be one of the top 5 starting candidates speaks more to Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, and Zach Miner.

doublem23
03-13-2009, 05:31 PM
Porcello is the most polarizing young player discussed on WSI outside of the White Sox system...

This thread is bursting at the seams.

Daver
03-13-2009, 05:39 PM
I think Weaver's problem was between his head.


Rushing a player tends to make them lose confidence.

michned
03-13-2009, 07:59 PM
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090313/SPORTS0104/903130368/&imw=Y

There's another article on the subject.

You can put me down in the "cautious" camp. I want him at AA where there is less pressure and he can still work on things. Now if they say there's nothing left to work on... well that's for the scouts and coaches.

Given that he'll be on a strict pitch limit I am not sure of the prospects of knowing that every fifth game you'll most likely be in your bullpen in the fifth or sixth inning at best.

Maybe he is special. I've heard a lot of rave reviews from scouts and others who follow this sort of thing. I won't pretend to be one.

Oblong, sorry for the semi-hijack, but speaking of young Tiger pitchers, is Ryan Perry turning any heads in ST? He's semi-famous down in my neck of the woods.

Billy Ashley
03-13-2009, 10:24 PM
Porcello is clearly an excellent prospect, but this would be an astoundingly stupid thing for the Tigers to do. Heís really young (20), and while he draws a great deal of groundballs he only strikes out around 5 batters per 9 innings. Thatís in A+ ball mind you.

He simply doesnít miss enough bats yet to succeed. If he were to pitch at the same level of performance as last year and in the majors- heíd likely walk more batters than heíd strike out. I donít care how good his sinking fast ball is, thatís not a recipe for success.

The guys a talent- just let him develop. If the Tigers were that hard up for pitching they should have made a run at a free agent.

Daver
03-13-2009, 10:32 PM
Porcello is clearly an excellent prospect, but this would be an astoundingly stupid thing for the Tigers to do. He’s really young (20), and while he draws a great deal of groundballs he only strikes out around 5 batters per 9 innings. That’s in A+ ball mind you.

He simply doesn’t miss enough bats yet to succeed. If he were to pitch at the same level of performance as last year and in the majors- he’d likely walk more batters than he’d strike out. I don’t care how good his sinking fast ball is, that’s not a recipe for success.

The guys a talent- just let him develop. If the Tigers were that hard up for pitching they should have made a run at a free agent.

Based on this logic no pitcher can make it unless he is a strikeout pitcher.

Brilliant.

DumpJerry
03-13-2009, 10:48 PM
Porcello is clearly an excellent prospect, but this would be an astoundingly stupid thing for the Tigers to do. Heís really young (20), and while he draws a great deal of groundballs he only strikes out around 5 batters per 9 innings. Thatís in A+ ball mind you.

He simply doesnít miss enough bats yet to succeed. If he were to pitch at the same level of performance as last year and in the majors- heíd likely walk more batters than heíd strike out. I donít care how good his sinking fast ball is, thatís not a recipe for success.

The guys a talent- just let him develop. If the Tigers were that hard up for pitching they should have made a run at a free agent.
Strikeout pitchers throw more pitches over the course of the season. Under your criteria, Mark Buehrle should be in Birmingham.

Just sayin'

Oblong
03-14-2009, 12:16 AM
Oblong, sorry for the semi-hijack, but speaking of young Tiger pitchers, is Ryan Perry turning any heads in ST? He's semi-famous down in my neck of the woods.

An emphatic yes! Just as much as Porcello. Thet two names get mentioned hand in hand. I like the idea of Perry making the team but there may not be any room for him in the bullpen. It's not as much of a glaring need like the starting pitching. There's more bodies.

I'm pretty sure he'll be the closer in 2010 and that it was the plan when they drafted him.

Perry's a big boy too.

Billy Ashley
03-14-2009, 05:07 PM
Based on this logic no pitcher can make it unless he is a strikeout pitcher.

Brilliant.

No, but I'm fairly confident that no one has effectively pitched as a starter with a K rate under 4 over the past 50 years for a prolonged period of time. If you can think of one, please enlighten me.

Your constant responses to me show nothing more than your ignorance. BTW, I'm considering this a knockdown punch on my part pal. Your comment is so utterly stupid, I'm just going to repeat it when ever you disagree with me again.

Billy Ashley
03-14-2009, 05:09 PM
Strikeout pitchers throw more pitches over the course of the season. Under your criteria, Mark Buehrle should be in Birmingham.

Just sayin'

Mark Buehrle strikes out anywhere fro 5 batters per nine to 6 on any given season. Additionally he walks about 2 per game. That's the background of a good pitcher. Porcello on the other hand would have walked around 4 and struck out 3 if he pitched in the majors last season (that's not to say he isn't a better pitcher now than he was 8 months ago).

pearso66
03-14-2009, 06:38 PM
Mark Buehrle strikes out anywhere fro 5 batters per nine to 6 on any given season. Additionally he walks about 2 per game. That's the background of a good pitcher. Porcello on the other hand would have walked around 4 and struck out 3 if he pitched in the majors last season (that's not to say he isn't a better pitcher now than he was 8 months ago).

I realize you are saying this because he struck out 5 a game last year in A ball, but I don't see how you can take that number and just say it's 3 in the majors. Might it have been 3? yes of course, but maybe not. I'm not a numbers guy, but if he has the stuff to be in the majors, he could be successful and strike out his 5 a game. I don't think the Tigers should bring him up yet, but one of my good friends is a Tiger fan and hopes to see him up to start the season. If he's better than their 4th or 5th starter now, and they don't think it will hurt to have him up, by all means call him up, but I think that he probably needs to develop another pitch or 2. Similar to Poreda for us.

Oblong
03-14-2009, 10:51 PM
I know all about the K rate being a decent predictor of success for pitchers. However the stuff I've read about Porcello is that he's just a "freakish groundball machine." That's the words from a guy who does this analysis for a living. There's also reasons why his strikeouts may have been lower at Lakeland than he normally would have had. Perhaps he was restricted in throwing certain pitches? I do recall reading that he wasn't throwing a big curve he's got but instead working on his sinker.

You don't tell a pitcher to work on his strikeouts. If he's getting outs, he's getting outs. Would you rather have a strikeout or a ground ball with a man on first? The strikeouts happen on their own.

I can think of a few more important reasons to not bring the guy North but lack of strikeouts isn't even on the list. I don't think you'll see a GM or coach tell a pitcher "Sorry kid, you can't come up with us until you strike more guys out. I don't care if you re getting everybody out and your stuff is better than most guys on our staff. Get more strikeouts, The computer said you can't be good until you do that."

(And I say that as a guy who's sympathetic to a lot of the numbers stuff. But this is just the wrong application for the theory.)

FloridaTigers
03-15-2009, 02:14 AM
If Porcello continues to outperform Miner, Robertson, and Willis, then I wouldn't mind him getting the fifth spot. Of course, there'd have to be a strict pitch count, regardless of performance, and perhaps even a move to the bullpen towards the end to protect him.

As for Perry, I'm hoping he can make the bullpen out of ST this year. I haven't seen him pitch, but the stats don't lie.

Billy Ashley
03-15-2009, 07:25 PM
I know all about the K rate being a decent predictor of success for pitchers. However the stuff I've read about Porcello is that he's just a "freakish groundball machine." That's the words from a guy who does this analysis for a living. There's also reasons why his strikeouts may have been lower at Lakeland than he normally would have had. Perhaps he was restricted in throwing certain pitches? I do recall reading that he wasn't throwing a big curve he's got but instead working on his sinker.

You don't tell a pitcher to work on his strikeouts. If he's getting outs, he's getting outs. Would you rather have a strikeout or a ground ball with a man on first? The strikeouts happen on their own.

I can think of a few more important reasons to not bring the guy North but lack of strikeouts isn't even on the list. I don't think you'll see a GM or coach tell a pitcher "Sorry kid, you can't come up with us until you strike more guys out. I don't care if you re getting everybody out and your stuff is better than most guys on our staff. Get more strikeouts, The computer said you can't be good until you do that."

(And I say that as a guy who's sympathetic to a lot of the numbers stuff. But this is just the wrong application for the theory.)



I don't disagree with you at all about some pitchers being able to be effective because they induce a great number of grounders. However, even extreme ground ballers like Wang had respectable strike out numbers in the minors.

The reason is, it's not that difficult for a major league caliber talent to create swings and misses. Given that he was in high A ball, he was facing a great deal of hitters who likely don't fully know what they're doing yet. Subsequently, they're more likely to chase pitches they can't hit both in and outside of the strike zone.

There have been pitchers to succeed with a K rate around 3 (and that's only my estimate for what he would have done last year given his competition). However, they're pretty damn rare. Bill Lee did it over a career. Fuesto Carmona did it over a season. However, it's hard to think of a number of players who can do it.

Billy Ashley
03-15-2009, 07:26 PM
If Porcello continues to outperform Miner, Robertson, and Willis, then I wouldn't mind him getting the fifth spot. Of course, there'd have to be a strict pitch count, regardless of performance, and perhaps even a move to the bullpen towards the end to protect him.

As for Perry, I'm hoping he can make the bullpen out of ST this year. I haven't seen him pitch, but the stats don't lie.


If he pitches over 150 innings this year, the Tigers FO should be sued.

Oblong
03-16-2009, 09:32 AM
I don't disagree with you at all about some pitchers being able to be effective because they induce a great number of grounders. However, even extreme ground ballers like Wang had respectable strike out numbers in the minors.

The reason is, it's not that difficult for a major league caliber talent to create swings and misses. Given that he was in high A ball, he was facing a great deal of hitters who likely don't fully know what they're doing yet. Subsequently, they're more likely to chase pitches they can't hit both in and outside of the strike zone.

There have been pitchers to succeed with a K rate around 3 (and that's only my estimate for what he would have done last year given his competition). However, they're pretty damn rare. Bill Lee did it over a career. Fuesto Carmona did it over a season. However, it's hard to think of a number of players who can do it.

I'm confused as to what your point is. If you are saying you don't think Porcello will be the great pitcher that he's predicted to be based on his K rate so far then that's a fair point since the research bears that out based on previous examples. We'll see what happens.

But from your first point you gave the impression that he shouldn't be brought up because of his K rate. I disagree on that. If he's one of the better pitchers on the team and the front office is comfortable that he's ML ready and that they can manage his workload without sacrificing his future, then fine, go ahead and do it.

What exactly is the front office to do about his K rate issue? I don't see anything worht doing.

Billy Ashley
03-16-2009, 12:29 PM
I'm confused as to what your point is. If you are saying you don't think Porcello will be the great pitcher that he's predicted to be based on his K rate so far then that's a fair point since the research bears that out based on previous examples. We'll see what happens.

But from your first point you gave the impression that he shouldn't be brought up because of his K rate. I disagree on that. If he's one of the better pitchers on the team and the front office is comfortable that he's ML ready and that they can manage his workload without sacrificing his future, then fine, go ahead and do it.

What exactly is the front office to do about his K rate issue? I don't see anything worht doing.

I think given his natural ability, there's very little chance his K rate does not improve. I'm only arguing that it's a very good indicator that he's not ready yet. He's what, 20 years old? What's the point in bring him up for 2009 if he's only a bad starter at this point (regardless of how much better he is than the crap at the back end of the rotation) given that such action will 1) make him become a FA before he reaches his prime and 2) possibly could retard his development.

The FO can't really do anything more than they're already doing. I'd assume that player development is working with Porcello on how to repeat his delivery, how to disguise the baseball, how to improve his command and so on. They just should not rush him. If his K rate doesn't imrpove as he assends, and the Tigers still believe he's capable of getting batters out, they should promote him (at a more appropriate age). It's unlikely.... but possible that he'll as successful as a Bill Lee.

Oblong
03-16-2009, 01:46 PM
From what I've read his mechanics are near impeccable and he's as polished as can be. Mentally strong too.

For me the only issue is workload. I would think/hope that they wouldn't bring him up unless they were sure he'd succeed.


I'm more excited about Ryan Perry, who was mentioned earlier in the thread.

jabrch
03-16-2009, 02:32 PM
From what I've read his mechanics are near impeccable and he's as polished as can be.

Now where have I heard that before?

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/Images/Examples/Example_InvertedW_MarkPrior_002.jpg

munchman33
03-16-2009, 02:35 PM
Now where have I heard that before?

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/Images/Examples/Example_InvertedW_MarkPrior_002.jpg

Yeah, only it wasn't scouts saying that last time.

Porcello could easily make that rotation. He'd probably be their best starter. It's more a question of how much they want to stretch him out this year, and if throwing 180+ innings might cause him harm. If they think so, he needs to spend the year between AA and AAA and finish the year early.

Billy Ashley
03-16-2009, 03:01 PM
Now where have I heard that before?

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/Images/Examples/Example_InvertedW_MarkPrior_002.jpg


I don't want to open yet another can of worms about analysis- I wouldn't want Daver to make a fool of himself again but-

Google driveline mechanics and Mark Prior. That site has a very good breakdown as to why some believe Prior's mechanics were actually so bad, he never had a chance.

I've read a great deal about the "inverted W" and can not make an intelligent conclusion as to how valid of a concern it is to see a pitcher do it. There are a great deal of well respected, intelligent people on both sides of the fence. That said, Prior's motion was so dramatic, it seems almost comical now that scouts were thinking he had a great deli delivery.

I don't know if Porcello has an inverted W, but if he does- it's very unlikely to be as dramatic as Prior's. That picture above just demonstrates how much stress that pitcher put on his elbow/ shoulders with every pitch.

Oblong
03-16-2009, 05:46 PM
Now where have I heard that before?



In a discussion I read on the topic of Porcello, someone specifically Prior's mechanics and the "expert" stated he was never a fan of Prior's but loves Porcello's.

Here's Porcello's delivery in HS.

http://www.pitchingclips.com/players/rick_porcello.htm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dG9zlRro7W8&

SBSoxFan
03-16-2009, 08:41 PM
I don't want to open yet another can of worms about analysis- I wouldn't want Daver to make a fool of himself again but-

Google driveline mechanics and Mark Prior. That site has a very good breakdown as to why some believe Prior's mechanics were actually so bad, he never had a chance.

I've read a great deal about the "inverted W" and can not make an intelligent conclusion as to how valid of a concern it is to see a pitcher do it. There are a great deal of well respected, intelligent people on both sides of the fence. That said, Prior's motion was so dramatic, it seems almost comical now that scouts were thinking he had a great deli delivery.

I don't know if Porcello has an inverted W, but if he does- it's very unlikely to be as dramatic as Prior's. That picture above just demonstrates how much stress that pitcher put on his elbow/ shoulders with every pitch.

In a discussion I read on the topic of Porcello, someone specifically Prior's mechanics and the "expert" stated he was never a fan of Prior's but loves Porcello's.

Here's Porcello's delivery in HS.

http://www.pitchingclips.com/players/rick_porcello.htm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dG9zlRro7W8&

When were people saying this about Prior? Was it before 2003, or since the time Prior is best known for winning simulated awards? If it's the latter, neither hindsight nor piling on make one an expert.

Anyway, has any medical person who has worked with Prior ever said he has anything more than the typical "damage" you'd expect from pitching? I haven't heard anything like that.

Billy Ashley
03-16-2009, 09:08 PM
When were people saying this about Prior? Was it before 2003, or since the time Prior is best known for winning simulated awards? If it's the latter, neither hindsight nor piling on make one an expert.

Anyway, has any medical person who has worked with Prior ever said he has anything more than the typical "damage" you'd expect from pitching? I haven't heard anything like that.

I'm 25, and while I've been a baseball fan my entire life, I wasn't a super geek until about 3 or 4 years ago. So I can't really tell you if people were calling Prior's mechanics out back in 03. - However, even if they weren't, I hope we're smarter than we were 6 years ago.

I know there are a number of people with medical backgrounds who have argued that Prior's mechanics does add pressure. I also know others who argue against that point. I would expect that any Doctor working specifically with Prior would be bound by legal issues to not discuss his injury with anyone outside of Mark Prior and the organization paying for his/ her consultation.

To me, the "Inverted W," "L," and so on demonstrates how little we know about baseball. Any opinion I have, or anyone other fan has on the topic must be taken with a massive dose of salt. I'm smart enough to find this stuff interesting, and to be mildly concerned once a pitcher uses similar mechanics- but for me to claim to know definitively is laughable.

A number of posters on another board I frequent have been debating Stephen Starsburg's mechanics. Some of these guys have known people who have played with him/ against him in high school or college. Several posters with medical backgrounds have expressed concern that his elbow is likely to blow into a million pieces, while others with similar backgrounds remain unconvinced. It would be a stretch to call these guys authoritative on the subject, but they're a lot brighter than 99% of the baseball viewing population and they're far far far from being in agreement.

I guess my point is- it's really interesting and worth reading. But, until more data is available this is all very murky.

jabrch
03-16-2009, 10:12 PM
When were people saying this about Prior? Was it before 2003, or since the time Prior is best known for winning simulated awards? If it's the latter, neither hindsight nor piling on make one an expert.

Anyway, has any medical person who has worked with Prior ever said he has anything more than the typical "damage" you'd expect from pitching? I haven't heard anything like that.

Dr. Tom House said it when he was in college... House is well known - but lives in a contraversial area. Some say that the nature of pitching results in no mechanics being "perfect". It is unnatural and leads to injury.

SBSoxFan
03-16-2009, 10:26 PM
Dr. Tom House said it when he was in college... House is well known - but lives in a contraversial area. Some say that the nature of pitching results in no mechanics being "perfect". It is unnatural and leads to injury.

Interesting. I was once told by a doctor that raising your arm above your head is bad for your shoulders. :rolleyes:

The thing is that "bad" mechanics aren't bad for everyone.

Oh well, I guess I've hijacked the thread long enough.

jabrch
03-17-2009, 12:05 AM
Interesting. I was once told by a doctor that raising your arm above your head is bad for your shoulders. :rolleyes:

The thing is that "bad" mechanics aren't bad for everyone.

Oh well, I guess I've hijacked the thread long enough.

Pitching - at the MLB level - stresses the arm in unnatural ways. Nobody can really have "perfect" mechanics if they are really making the ball move enough to be effective. Only freaks of nature can do it for a long time and avoid injury.

jabrch
03-19-2009, 11:00 PM
Dontrelle Willis still sucks. Got pounded again today.

OUCH

Billy Ashley
03-20-2009, 10:13 AM
Dontrelle Willis still sucks. Got pounded again today.

OUCH

I'm far from a Tigers fan, but it sucks to see what happened to Willis. He's the new Steve Avery (only he was better). He logged a ton of innings at a very young age and had very difficult mechanics to repeat, but it's still sort of shocking to see how he went from superstar to decent to not even replacement player quality in less than 3 years.

I always like him with Florida, but it may be time to pull the plug on that career.

Rocky Soprano
03-20-2009, 10:38 AM
I'm far from a Tigers fan, but it sucks to see what happened to Willis. He's the new Steve Avery (only he was better). He logged a ton of innings at a very young age and had very difficult mechanics to repeat, but it's still sort of shocking to see how he went from superstar to decent to not even replacement player quality in less than 3 years.

I always like him with Florida, but it may be time to pull the plug on that career.

I can't believe the Tigers gave him that extension!

FloridaTigers
03-21-2009, 11:33 PM
I can't believe the Tigers gave him that extension!

Or Nate Robertson.

DirtySox
04-01-2009, 11:24 AM
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=4971

Porcello will be in the starting rotation.

jabrch
04-01-2009, 12:51 PM
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=4971

Porcello will be in the starting rotation.


This will be interesting - he's never thrown above Single A. That doesn't mean he can't make it right off the bat - I'm just curious as to how effective he can be, and how many innings he can throw in 2009.

FloridaTigers
04-01-2009, 05:10 PM
Perry also made the team

SBSoxFan
04-01-2009, 09:50 PM
Perry also made the team

Herbert?