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DSpivack
03-11-2009, 12:54 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/03/11/whitesox.williams/index.html

EDIT: Didn't see a thread already in WTS.

CashMan
03-11-2009, 01:05 PM
I think I misread the article, who is the outside the box guy for 2B?

eriqjaffe
03-11-2009, 01:12 PM
I think I misread the article, who is the outside the box guy for 2B?Beckham.

Tragg
03-11-2009, 01:21 PM
Nice article.
Thanks for posting it.

CashMan
03-11-2009, 01:26 PM
Beckham.


But I thought he wasn't ready, and there is no way he could skip all the important parts in the minors.

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 01:32 PM
Posted this in the other thread:

I like Kenny Williams and I do believe he is criminally underrated- however, I don't think he's one of the games very best general managers as the article seems to argue.

He's done a very good job making the White Sox relevant in the International market while also having exploited some other teams on some fairly lopsided deals.

That said, his draft history is pretty spotty and while that's more of an indictment on the entire organization, his role as general manager should receive credit/ blame for. Additionally, the Ken Griffey trade was utterly pointless last season and at times, he tends to totally ignore depth.

The 09 team has a ton of holes- however, I'd be willing to give him a lot of credit for showing financial restraint this off-season. The recession could very well end up biting a lot of teams on the ass this year and the following season. We're with in sight of another massive market correction among major league contracts. When talented guys like Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell are struggling to find deals worth more than 20 million- something is up.

CashMan
03-11-2009, 01:36 PM
Posted this in the other thread:

I like Kenny Williams and I do believe he is criminally underrated- however, I don't think he's one of the games very best general managers as the article seems to argue.

He's done a very good job making the White Sox relevant in the International market while also having exploited some other teams on some fairly lopsided deals.

That said, his draft history is pretty spotty and while that's more of an indictment on the entire organization, his role as general manager should receive credit/ blame for. Additionally, the Ken Griffey trade was utterly pointless last season and at times, he tends to totally ignore depth.

The 09 team has a ton of holes- however, I'd be willing to give him a lot of credit for showing financial restraint this off-season. The recession could very well end up biting a lot of teams on the ass this year and the following season. We're with in sight of another massive market correction among major league contracts. When talented guys like Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell are struggling to find deals worth more than 20 million- something is up.


I think you uare right about the market correction and it biting teams in the ass. Thome and Jose come off the books next year and Paulie the year after, so I think he is sitting pretty with the young talent.

RedHeadPaleHoser
03-11-2009, 01:41 PM
I was surprised it was more than a 4 paragraph story.

Also glad the C word (ubs) wasn't mentioned at all.

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 01:42 PM
I think you uare right about the market correction and it biting teams in the ass. Thome and Jose come off the books next year and Paulie the year after, so I think he is sitting pretty with the young talent.

An interesting question is: Would fans accept a team struggling a lot for 1-2 years while the front office does relatively nothing in hopes of capitalizing on a very good situation 2-3 years from now.

I don't think it's a question specifically for the white sox... but is it correct for a fairly strong financially organization to "punt" a season or two in order to dominate over 5 years, two seasons later?

esbrechtel
03-11-2009, 01:45 PM
But I thought he wasn't ready, and there is no way he could skip all the important parts in the minors.


Ha, take that to the other thread...we dont want Beckham to become the next BA...

Good article...it is nice to see that Kenny has some fans...

eriqjaffe
03-11-2009, 01:50 PM
But I thought he wasn't ready, and there is no way he could skip all the important parts in the minors.I agree that Beckham should spend at least another full year in the minors, but the article is pretty clear:

COPYRIGHTED TEXT

bradchifan3
03-11-2009, 01:59 PM
Copyright infringement mods in 3, 2, 1............

thomas35forever
03-11-2009, 02:04 PM
Pretty good read. True that the doubters far outnumber the believers, but that's probably because we never make a big splash via trade or free agency unless they're veterans past their prime or players few have heard of. Instead of just thinking World Series championship year after year, Kenny just wants to prove everyone wrong with his moves. I think the Sox'll be fine.

asindc
03-11-2009, 02:06 PM
Posted this in the other thread:

I like Kenny Williams and I do believe he is criminally underrated- however, I don't think he's one of the games very best general managers as the article seems to argue.

He's done a very good job making the White Sox relevant in the International market while also having exploited some other teams on some fairly lopsided deals.

That said, his draft history is pretty spotty and while that's more of an indictment on the entire organization, his role as general manager should receive credit/ blame for. Additionally, the Ken Griffey trade was utterly pointless last season and at times, he tends to totally ignore depth.

The 09 team has a ton of holes- however, I'd be willing to give him a lot of credit for showing financial restraint this off-season. The recession could very well end up biting a lot of teams on the ass this year and the following season. We're with in sight of another massive market correction among major league contracts. When talented guys like Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell are struggling to find deals worth more than 20 million- something is up.

While I won't debate the KW-as-one-the-best-GMs-out-there question here, I will say that if Boston's Boy Wonder or Cashman had made the deals KW has since 2004, every one of them would have received rave reviews across sports media as examples of the GM's "genius." I think that is the point the author is making, one with which I agree.

doublem23
03-11-2009, 02:08 PM
But I thought he wasn't ready, and there is no way he could skip all the important parts in the minors.

There's nothing that says he can't skip all those levels in the minors, it's just very, very, very, very, very, very likely to mess up his development.

Carolina Kenny
03-11-2009, 02:19 PM
This is it.

bradchifan3
03-11-2009, 02:37 PM
This is it.

Huh?

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 02:44 PM
While I won't debate the KW-as-one-the-best-GMs-out-there question here, I will say that if Boston's Boy Wonder or Cashman had made the deals KW has since 2004, every one of them would have received rave reviews across sports media as examples of the GM's "genius." I think that is the point the author is making, one with which I agree.

I don't know where I stand on Cashman, he's very intelligent- though the Yankees have had a pretty awful blunder to success ratio since his arrival. That said, given the situation in NY, it's difficult to tell what moves are Cashman's ideas and which are are his bosses. I guess my point with Cashman, is that it's impossible to say how good of a general manager he is. He certainly talks a good game (wanting to emulate Boston's farm model, looking to build redundancy and flexibility with in an organization) it's just that when ever the Yankees seem to have found religion on rationality, they go out and spend half a billion dollars.

Epstein gets a ton of press and he deserves it. Do the press overstate his excellence, certainly- but that may be the result of the tremendous amount of success he's had since he took over in 03. Boston had a crappy farm system, a good but older team and a lot of bad contracts. Since then, they've made the play offs every year except 2006 (when just about everyone on their roster got hurt), built one of the best farm systems in baseball (this year they're ranked anywhere from 7-14 depending on the expert and that's after having Buccholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Masterson graduate to the majors) and have stayed fairly stable in terms of payroll (usually sitting somewhere around 130 million dollars). Additionally, he's only signed only two free agent players to long term contract (JD Drew and Julio Lugo) and while one of them has been a disaster, the other has been worth about what they're paying him. Finally, the chore of their team are either guys who came up the system, were traded for with prospects in the system or picked up the scrap heap.

I mean can you look at the guys track record and tell me he's a phantom of the East Coast media?

...
03-11-2009, 02:45 PM
There's nothing that says he can't skip all those levels in the minors, it's just very, very, very, very, very, very likely to mess up his development.

Just curious, what experience do you have in developing baseball players?

White City
03-11-2009, 02:49 PM
That article on page 3 suggests a Chone Figgins trade to the Yankees.

Maybe we could work out a three-way: Figgins to us, Fields to the Yanks (as A-Rod insurance at a younger age with more pop in his bat), and a Yankee prospect to the Angels.

Figgins plays third and bats lead-off. BA in centerfield, platooning some with Wise. Later, Owens.

Figgins is a short-term solution until Viciedo is ready to play 3B everyday in the big leagues.

delben91
03-11-2009, 02:50 PM
EDIT: Didn't see a thread already in WTS.

Yeah...

My thread gets no love... :whiner:

delben91
03-11-2009, 02:51 PM
Just curious, what experience do you have in developing baseball players?

This is a shot in the dark, but I've long thought doublem is really...

:nardi

asindc
03-11-2009, 02:53 PM
I don't know where I stand on Cashman, he's very intelligent- though the Yankees have had a pretty awful blunder to success ratio since his arrival. That said, given the situation in NY, it's difficult to tell what moves are Cashman's ideas and which are are his bosses. I guess my point with Cashman, is that it's impossible to say how good of a general manager he is. He certainly talks a good game (wanting to emulate Boston's farm model, looking to build redundancy and flexibility with in an organization) it's just that when ever the Yankees seem to have found religion on rationality, they go out and spend half a billion dollars.

Epstein gets a ton of press and he deserves it. Do the press overstate his excellence, certainly- but that may be the result of the tremendous amount of success he's had since he took over in 03. Boston had a crappy farm system, a good but older team and a lot of bad contracts. Since then, they've made the play offs every year except 2006 (when just about everyone on their roster got hurt), built one of the best farm systems in baseball (this year they're ranked anywhere from 7-14 depending on the expert and that's after having Buccholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Masterson graduate to the majors) and have stayed fairly stable in terms of payroll (usually sitting somewhere around 130 million dollars). Additionally, he's only signed only two free agent players to long term contract (JD Drew and Julio Lugo) and while one of them has been a disaster, the other has been worth about what they're paying him. Finally, the chore of their team are either guys who came up the system, were traded for with prospects in the system or picked up the scrap heap.

I mean look at the guys track record and tell me he's a phantom of the East Coast media?

I agree with your assessment of both Cashman (really impossible for any GM to be adequately assessed while working under any Steinbrenner, it seems) and Epstein (he has done all you have stated and does deserve the credit for it), but my point is (as well as the author's, I believe) that KW's moves since 2004 would have been lauded to the same degree at least as much as Epstein's have.

I don't begrudge Epstein's acumen, even though I loathe the team he works for. I'm only miffed about KW not receiving just due. He should have won 2005 Executive of the Year.

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 03:00 PM
I agree with your assessment of both Cashman (really impossible for any GM to be adequately assessed while working under any Steinbrenner, it seems) and Epstein (he has done all you have stated and does deserve the credit for it), but my point is (as well as the author's, I believe) that KW's moves since 2004 would have been lauded to the same degree at least as much as Epstein's have.

I don't begrudge Epstein's acumen, even though I loathe the team he works for. I'm only miffed about KW not receiving just due. He should have won 2005 Executive of the Year.

I actually think Williams wouldn't last a month in NY, but that has nothing to do with his ability as a GM.

I also don't think Williams would have gotten the same credit if he were in Boston and made the exact same moves Epstein has. A lot of his press comes from (I think) the fact that he's really really young, followed Pearl Jam to South America during his bizarre retirement and has contemplated leaving baseball for the glamorous cash filled world of social work-

Meaning, I think as a person he's interesting and subsequently it's easy for a sports writer to write about him from a number of different angles:

1) How does he get along with Lucchino
2) What's his love life like
3) Is it odd for him to negotiate with players older then him (though this isn't as much of an issue as it was 4 years ago)

Sports writers are lazy and for the most part incompetent. Epstein is an easy guy to write about. That and him being in Boston and being very good at his job = press overload.

voodoochile
03-11-2009, 03:01 PM
Nice article. Great to see KW get some respect. He deserves it.

Jim Shorts
03-11-2009, 03:29 PM
. Additionally, the Ken Griffey trade was utterly pointless last season and at times, he tends to totally ignore depth.



According to my book, Jr. won at least one game for us last year...and when you win a one game playoff for the playoffs, it matters; it wasn't utterly pointless. KW gave up nothing.

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 03:36 PM
According to my book, Jr. won at least one game for us last year...and when you win a one game playoff for the playoffs, it matters; it wasn't utterly pointless. KW gave up nothing.


Yes (actually no), that OPS+ of 95 directly resulted in 1 win for the white sox last season.

For the record, he was worth about .2 wins last year total (between the White Sox and Reds). If you really believe that in 1 at bat he saved a game, what do you think he did in his other 131 at bats last season?

I repeat, it was a pointless trade for a player who adds zero value.

oeo
03-11-2009, 03:44 PM
He should have won 2005 Executive of the Year.

But Shapiro's team finished in second place. Doesn't it make sense?

areilly
03-11-2009, 03:46 PM
According to my book, Jr. won at least one game for us last year...and when you win a one game playoff for the playoffs, it matters; it wasn't utterly pointless.

That's a bit of a stretch.

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 03:49 PM
That's a bit of a stretch.

On top of that, I wouldn't call Masset and Richar nothing- Richar could very well become a solid utility player and Masset is a fringe major league reliever who and thus is useful depth and could possibly even be a decent reliever for a year or two.

oeo
03-11-2009, 03:53 PM
On top of that, I wouldn't call Masset and Richar nothing- Richar could very well become a solid utility player and Masset is a fringe major league reliever who and thus is useful depth and could possibly even be a decent reliever for a year or two.

That should be rephrased: they were two guys who were expendable, and were not going to get the opportunities they needed to succeed here.

Masset is too erratic at times, which is why he's garbage as a reliever. Unless he starts the inning, it's likely trouble. I still think he's better suited as a starter, but again, that opportunity wasn't going to happen here. Richar was pushed behind Getz on the depth chart, and with the emergence of Alexei, as well as the drafting of Beckham, he wasn't going to get an opportunity here, either.

voodoochile
03-11-2009, 03:53 PM
On top of that, I wouldn't call Masset and Richar nothing- Richar could very well become a solid utility player and Masset is a fringe major league reliever who and thus is useful depth and could possibly even be a decent reliever for a year or two.

From a Sox perspective it wasn't much to give up and they were clearly trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Sometimes you take those chances when you are in a playoff hunt.

Johnny Mostil
03-11-2009, 04:01 PM
I found it interesting to read that BP underestimates the Sox by an average of 8 1/2 wins per year. At the risk of raising a topic even more controversial than BA, may I ask if anybody knows what teams BP routinely overestimates?

Britt Burns
03-11-2009, 04:14 PM
Great article! I for one doubted a lot of the moves KW made in the past, but no more. TCM for next to nothing in salary? Quentin for a one dimensional A+ ball player? Dumping Swisher's salary for some halfway decent prospects?

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 04:16 PM
I found it interesting to read that BP underestimates the Sox by an average of 8 1/2 wind per year. At the risk of raising a topic even more controversial than BA, may I ask if anybody knows what teams BP routinely overestimates?

I think it may have to do some to the fact that the seasons the White Sox have crushed their BP projections (05 and 08 off the top of my head) a bunch of individual players have come up with seasons that were totally unexpected. Jon Danks, Gavin Floyd were both considered very good prospects but no one expected them to pitch 400 innings last year (and while I'm totally sold on Danks, I'm still not sold on Floyd at all). In 05, just about everybody in the bullpen hit their stride as well...

It helps when you have young talent realizing all their talent and/or some journeymen having the seasons of their lives.

I guess in short- BP has been wrong because as good as they are, projections are very difficult. More so when we're talking about a tiny sample (one team over several years is a tiny sample when one considers these projection systems are looking at trends from every team ever).

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 04:20 PM
Great article! I for one doubted a lot of the moves KW made in the past, but no more. TCM for next to nothing in salary? Quentin for a one dimensional A+ ball player? Dumping Swisher's salary for some halfway decent prospects?


Again, I like Williams- but I think he screwed the pooch on Swisher.

Swisher for Gio Gonzalez + Ryan Sweeney = good trade, even though it didn't work out in 08.

Swisher + Teixeira for Betemint + Jeffrey Marquez + Jhonny Nunez = a pretty awful trade.

Swisher is a good bet to rebound, he was ungodly unlucky last season on balls in play and was signed to a relatively cheap contract. On top of that, he's versatile as all hell. He's a good ball player.

RedHeadPaleHoser
03-11-2009, 04:25 PM
Swisher is a good bet to rebound, he was ungodly unlucky last season on balls in play and was signed to a relatively cheap contract. On top of that, he's versatile as all hell. He's a good ball player.

I agree. I think Swish will have a good season this year. Sometimes things just click, or, don't....look at AJ in San Fran.

Johnny Mostil
03-11-2009, 04:49 PM
I think it may have to do some to the fact that the seasons the White Sox have crushed their BP projections (05 and 08 off the top of my head) a bunch of individual players have come up with seasons that were totally unexpected. Jon Danks, Gavin Floyd were both considered very good prospects but no one expected them to pitch 400 innings last year (and while I'm totally sold on Danks, I'm still not sold on Floyd at all). In 05, just about everybody in the bullpen hit their stride as well...

It helps when you have young talent realizing all their talent and/or some journeymen having the seasons of their lives.

I guess in short- BP has been wrong because as good as they are, projections are very difficult. More so when we're talking about a tiny sample (one team over several years is a tiny sample when one considers these projection systems are looking at trends from every team ever).

OK, but if BP is underestimating one team by 8 wins, then it has to be overestimating another by 8 wins, or overestimating 8 teams by 1 win each, right? Are there any teams it consistently overestimates? Or am I missing something here (and not for the first time!)?

Respect your elders . . .

delben91
03-11-2009, 04:56 PM
Swisher + Teixeira for Betemint + Jeffrey Marquez + Jhonny Nunez = a pretty awful trade.



The Sox had Teixeira and traded him? Then that IS a really awful trade.

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 05:00 PM
OK, but if BP is underestimating one team by 8 wins, then it has to be overestimating another by 8 wins, or overestimating 8 teams by 1 win each, right? Are there any teams it consistently overestimates? Or am I missing something here (and not for the first time!)?

Respect your elders . . .

sorry, I'm a little confused (likely due to how poorly I worded the previous post).

All I was saying is that PECOTA is an excellent tool, in fact it's likely the best projection system available. That said, it's going to be wrong an awful lot of the time.

Thus far, it's has looked silly due to the White Sox blowing away their projections a couple of times- I was only arguing that it may have to do with the composition of the White Sox roster those years. Generally PECOTA is good for ball park estimates, but if a team goes 10 games over their expected total... there's more than enough wiggle room with teams missing their projections by 1 or 2 games, or some team falling apart due to injury to make up the difference.

I'd say it would be a foolish idea to bet against PECOTA but at the same time, it would be equally foolish for a fan of a team to completely give up hope because of it either.

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 05:02 PM
The Sox had Teixeira and traded him? Then that IS a really awful trade.

Yes they did. He's a minor league pitcher (http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=31023) who was included in the Swisher deal, nice try though.

Johnny Mostil
03-11-2009, 05:15 PM
sorry, I'm a little confused (likely due to how poorly I worded the previous post).

All I was saying is that PECOTA is an excellent tool, in fact it's likely the best projection system available. That said, it's going to be wrong an awful lot of the time.

Thus far, it's has looked silly due to the White Sox blowing away their projections a couple of times- I was only arguing that it may have to do with the composition of the White Sox roster those years. Generally PECOTA is good for ball park estimates, but if a team goes 10 games over their expected total... there's more than enough wiggle room with teams missing their projections by 1 or 2 games, or some team falling apart due to injury to make up the difference.

I'd say it would be a foolish idea to bet against PECOTA but at the same time, it would be equally foolish for a fan of a team to completely give up hope because of it either.

So your answer is no, BP is not systematically overestimating any other team, it just underestimated the Sox for reasons you note?

DirtySox
03-11-2009, 05:45 PM
ESPN's Spring Training Blog (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=mlb_spring_training) talks about the Sox today. Some good quotes in there.

Says if Colon and Contreras are healthy we have the best rotation in the Central. Kurkjian also raves about Travis Beckham.

Billy Ashley
03-11-2009, 05:51 PM
So your answer is no, BP is not systematically overestimating any other team, it just underestimated the Sox for reasons you note?

Perhaps it would overate a team composed of players with solid baselines over 2-3 years around the age of 27, but it's likely that there isn't such a team.

I'm not sure if I'd say it underestimated the white sox either, the system just failed to predict the emergence as Danks as a front line starter so soon. Or Floyd's season either.

Additionally, from what I've read, PECOTA doesn't heavily reward breakout seasons, so it's very possible that they're down on those two again.

SoxGirl4Life
03-11-2009, 06:48 PM
"we would have traded Swisher for a bag of balls"?

ouch

SoxGirl4Life
03-12-2009, 07:10 AM
Cowly article on Kenny today. Coincidence, I'm sure.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/1472770,CST-SPT-sox12.article

RedHeadPaleHoser
03-12-2009, 07:18 AM
Thome's quote in the ESPN blog made me smile.

Cowley's article in the ST took it right off my ****ing face. Took him all of 3 sentences to mention the Cubs.

Joe - go write for the comics, you dumbass.

thedudeabides
03-12-2009, 09:10 AM
Again, I like Williams- but I think he screwed the pooch on Swisher.

Swisher for Gio Gonzalez + Ryan Sweeney = good trade, even though it didn't work out in 08.

Swisher + Teixeira for Betemint + Jeffrey Marquez + Jhonny Nunez = a pretty awful trade.

Swisher is a good bet to rebound, he was ungodly unlucky last season on balls in play and was signed to a relatively cheap contract. On top of that, he's versatile as all hell. He's a good ball player.

I have to disagree with you on this. I don't think Swisher is a sure thing to rebound. Looking at his career, 2006 is starting to look like the outlier. It's the only time he has hit more than 24 home runs and driven in more than 78 runs. That year he also scored 106 runs, also his highest, by far. His best attribute is being versatile, but he just doesn't hit well enough to be a corner outfielder or first baseman. He has a good eye at the plate, but I think it's to a fault. It's why he doesn't drive in a lot of runs and has a career .244 batting average.

He said he had trouble handling the media here, which means if he starts off slow in New York, he will get buried. Not to mention he is going to be relegated to being a bench player. He may only get about 250-300 at bats.

And New York was one of the only teams that could afford to take a chance on him. I give Kenny a lot of credit for being able to dump him and possibly recoup the prospects he originally gave up. It will take a while to see which group of prospects would have been more valuable to the White Sox, but at least he new when to cut his losses and get the best package he could for Swisher.

And there is a good chance that Marquez will work out. He is exactly the type of player this article was referencing. He would not have been available in a similar package a year earlier. Since he had a down year, a result of some injury trouble, he became attainable in a package.

This is where Kenny excels. Billy Beane and Moneyball have gotten a lot of love for identifying what is undervalued as a whole, in the market. I think Kenny is maybe the best at identifying undervalued players. Guys who may have had a down year, for a myriad of reasons, and not previously been available. They have faith in their coaching staff and their training staff to get these players right. It's what happened with Loiaza, Contreras, Floyd, Quentin, Thornton, Jenks, and even Dye to an extent. These are just a few examples. There certainly have been some misses, but that is going to happen.

The Sox management seems to have their minor league system headed in the right direction, which has been the missing piece in his tenure. If that gets corrected, I think this organization is in good shape, for a long time.

Billy Ashley
03-12-2009, 10:30 AM
1: You’re absolutely correct in that the White Sox are in the right direction as far as player development. They still need to work on putting together consistently good drafts, but their minors are much improved over recent years when they were hanging out with the likes of the Astros.

2: The 2006 Nick Swisher isn’t coming back, I agree that 2006 was just a season in which some combination of luck and just everything clicking for a talented hitter translating into an outlier season.

That said, he had a BABIP of .251 last season (compared to .279 for his career) despite the fact that he posted the best line drive percentage of his career. On top of that, his walk rate was in line with his career averages and his K rate was only slightly higher than his career clip. It is obvious that the guy was ridiculously unlucky last season.






BTW the Coen brothers are awesome


I wouldn’t expect him to put up an OPS+ of 126 anytime soon (like the years in Oakland that he looked like he was becoming a star), but don’t be surprised if he’s around 110-115. He’ll draw a ton of walks, have moderate power and likely hit around .240. That’ll likely be good for an OPS somewhere around .790-.830. Given that he’s an asset defensively at 1b and won’t kill you in center- that’s a pretty valuable ball player.

BTW the Coen brothers are awesome

thedudeabides
03-12-2009, 10:40 AM
1: Youíre absolutely correct in that the White Sox are in the right direction as far as player development. They still need to work on putting together consistently good drafts, but their minors are much improved over recent years when they were hanging out with the likes of the Astros.

2: The 2006 Nick Swisher isnít coming back, I agree that 2006 was just a season in which some combination of luck and just everything clicking for a talented hitter translating into an outlier season.

That said, he had a BABIP of .251 last season (compared to .279 for his career) despite the fact that he posted the best line drive percentage of his career. On top of that, his walk rate was in line with his career averages and his K rate was only slightly higher than his career clip. It is obvious that the guy was ridiculously unlucky last season.






BTW the Coen brothers are awesome


I wouldnít expect him to put up an OPS+ of 126 anytime soon (like the years in Oakland that he looked like he was becoming a star), but donít be surprised if heís around 110-115. Heíll draw a ton of walks, have moderate power and likely hit around .240. Thatíll likely be good for an OPS somewhere around .790-.830. Given that heís an asset defensively at 1b and wonít kill you in center- thatís a pretty valuable ball player.

BTW the Coen brothers are awesome

It'll be interesting to see how he handles New York. And he may end up getting at bats playing CF there. I realize he was a bit unlucky, but I also think there is a solid book out on him now. He needs to make adjustments to get back to being what he was. He is way too passive on good strikes early in the count. It's never good to be consistently behind in the count.

TheCommander
03-12-2009, 10:48 AM
Cowley's article in the ST took it right off my ****ing face. Took him all of 3 sentences to mention the Cubs.


And this is the second time you have mentioned them in this thread. :redneck

RedHeadPaleHoser
03-12-2009, 11:10 AM
And this is the second time you have mentioned them in this thread. :redneck

Point taken.

Billy Ashley
03-12-2009, 12:26 PM
It'll be interesting to see how he handles New York. And he may end up getting at bats playing CF there. I realize he was a bit unlucky, but I also think there is a solid book out on him now. He needs to make adjustments to get back to being what he was. He is way too passive on good strikes early in the count. It's never good to be consistently behind in the count.

It's a fair point that he'll need to make adjustments- that's needed all the time. Additionally, (god I hope this doesn't turn into a stat argument with some of the other posters) a player with the skill set of Swisher (old man skills) tend to evolve poorly as hitters as they advance in age.

Additionally, sporadic playing time could very well have a much larger impact on Swisher's statistics given that he puts so few balls in play in relation to the average batter.

So yeah, it should not be taken for granted that Swisher will rebound, it's that he's likely too.

EndemicSox
03-12-2009, 02:11 PM
1: You’re absolutely correct in that the White Sox are in the right direction as far as player development. They still need to work on putting together consistently good drafts, but their minors are much improved over recent years when they were hanging out with the likes of the Astros.

2: The 2006 Nick Swisher isn’t coming back, I agree that 2006 was just a season in which some combination of luck and just everything clicking for a talented hitter translating into an outlier season.

That said, he had a BABIP of .251 last season (compared to .279 for his career) despite the fact that he posted the best line drive percentage of his career. On top of that, his walk rate was in line with his career averages and his K rate was only slightly higher than his career clip. It is obvious that the guy was ridiculously unlucky last season.





BTW the Coen brothers are awesome


I wouldn’t expect him to put an OPS+ of 126 anytime soon (like the years in Oakland that he looked like he was becoming a star), but don’t be surprised if he’s around 110-115. He’ll draw a ton of walks, have moderate power and likely hit around .240. That’ll likely be good for an OPS somewhere around .790-.830. Given that he’s an asset defensively at 1b and won’t kill you in center- that’s a pretty valuable ball player.

BTW the Coen brothers are awesome

No doubt Swish didn't get the breaks on batted balls last season, but he really didn't hit the ball that hard on the other hand. After watching him and the A's quite often while I was stuck in California, his bat-speed just isn't what it once was, and I think we all have an idea why that was the case. I hope he can turn it around, but unless he gives A-Rod's trainer a call, I don't see it happening. Apologies to Swish if I'm off-base...

areilly
03-12-2009, 02:29 PM
After watching him and the A's quite often while I was stuck in California, his bat-speed just isn't what it once was, and I think we all have an idea why that was the case. I hope he can turn it around, but unless he gives A-Rod's trainer a call, I don't see it happening. Apologies to Swish if I'm off-base...

That's a pretty bold claim, and I'm curious what you base it on.

esbrechtel
03-12-2009, 02:40 PM
probably just that he was an A and they have a history of that sort of thing...

EndemicSox
03-12-2009, 03:08 PM
That's a pretty bold claim, and I'm curious what you base it on.

Not much really, loss of power/bat-speed at the age of 27(which in theory should be the absolute prime of a hitter's career). Throw in the A's connection, and well, it's just a guess. Is it fair to Swish? No, not really, but it is what it is, and I truly hope I'm just wrong and being an ass.

Craig Grebeck
03-12-2009, 03:23 PM
Not much really, loss of power/bat-speed at the age of 27(which in theory should be the absolute prime of a hitter's career). Throw in the A's connection, and well, it's just a guess. Is it fair to Swish? No, not really, but it is what it is, and I truly hope I'm just wrong and being an ass.
When you have to preface things with so many qualifiers, you should probably just keep them to yourself. There's speculation, and then there's pointless babble.

HomeFish
03-12-2009, 03:34 PM
1: Youíre absolutely correct in that the White Sox are in the right direction as far as player development.

Yes, but in the same way that a man who has been pulled out of a burning building is "in the right direction" because he is no longer on fire. :smile:

asindc
03-12-2009, 03:48 PM
Yes, but in the same way that a man who has been pulled out of a burning building is "in the right direction" because he is no longer on fire. :smile:

Huh?:scratch:

doublem23
03-12-2009, 04:16 PM
Huh?:scratch:

It's just HomeFish being HomeFish.

voodoochile
03-12-2009, 05:04 PM
Yes, but in the same way that a man who has been pulled out of a burning building is "in the right direction" because he is no longer on fire. :smile:

You have to put out the fire before you can start to heal the wounds and no way to start working on the roll of fat, receding hairline and deviated septum until the wounds from the fire have been healed.

Baby steps, Homefish... baby steps...

EndemicSox
03-12-2009, 06:31 PM
When you have to preface things with so many qualifiers, you should probably just keep them to yourself. There's speculation, and then there's pointless babble.

It is what it is, and I'm certainly not the first person to suggest it. A bag of balls says it all...but you're right...

Dan Mega
03-13-2009, 06:21 PM
Posted this in the other thread:

I like Kenny Williams and I do believe he is criminally underrated- however, I don't think he's one of the games very best general managers as the article seems to argue.

He's done a very good job making the White Sox relevant in the International market while also having exploited some other teams on some fairly lopsided deals.

That said, his draft history is pretty spotty and while that's more of an indictment on the entire organization, his role as general manager should receive credit/ blame for. Additionally, the Ken Griffey trade was utterly pointless last season and at times, he tends to totally ignore depth.

The 09 team has a ton of holes- however, I'd be willing to give him a lot of credit for showing financial restraint this off-season. The recession could very well end up biting a lot of teams on the ass this year and the following season. We're with in sight of another massive market correction among major league contracts. When talented guys like Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell are struggling to find deals worth more than 20 million- something is up.

To be fair though he took the necessary steps to righten the ship. The guys he had in charge weren't getting it done so I believe he eliminated them.

I can't think of one GM that has not made bad moves. The Griffey trade and Konerko's still being on the team are both bad moves/non-moves, but his positives outweigh the negatives.

I mean, what GM's are better than KW? A handful at best?

Billy Ashley
03-13-2009, 08:31 PM
To be fair though he took the necessary steps to righten the ship. The guys he had in charge weren't getting it done so I believe he eliminated them.

I can't think of one GM that has not made bad moves. The Griffey trade and Konerko's still being on the team are both bad moves/non-moves, but his positives outweigh the negatives.

I mean, what GM's are better than KW? A handful at best?


With the massive caveat that I (nor any fan) can't really know exactly all the responsibilities of running an organization, you're correct- I can't think of many (maybe 4-6) who are better.

HomeFish
03-13-2009, 08:57 PM
I mean, what GM's are better than KW? A handful at best?

2005 Executive of the Year Mark Shapiro

rwcescato
03-14-2009, 09:02 AM
A nice positive article. Its nice someone gives Kenny credit.