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View Full Version : Breakdown of the Today's Top, Up-and-Coming, and HoF Closers...


WhiteSoxFan84
12-10-2008, 03:05 AM
Didn't know where to exactly put this as it involves a current White Sox player, Bobby Jenks, and where he stands amongst almost all of the other closers in the game.

I broke this down into 3 fields: current top closers (with at least 100 save opportunities), "up-and-coming" closers, and "on the way to the hall/on the way out" closers. What you'll see is their saves converted/save opportunities, save conversion percentage, and career ERAs. I have them ranked order of save conversion percentage...

Current Top Closers (w/ 100 or more SV opp)
Joe Nathan, Twins...................200/224, 89.3, 2.82
Johnathen Papelbon, Red Sox....113/128, 88.3, 1.84
Bobby Jenks, White Sox............117/133, 88.0, 3.09
Francisco Rodriguez, Mets.........208/241, 86.3, 2.35
Jose Valverde, Astros...............142/165, 86.1, 3.31
Brad Lidge, Phillies...................164/191, 85.9, 3.10
Brian Fuentes, FA....................115/139, 82.7, 3.41
BJ Ryan, Blue Jays...................115/142, 81.0, 3.24
JJ Putz, Mariners.....................101/125, 80.8, 3.07
Francisco Cordero, Reds...........211/263, 80.2, 3.29
Houston Street, Rockies.............94/121, 77.7, 2.88


"Up-And-Coming" Closers
Joakim Soria, Royals..................59/66, 89.4, 2.05
Takashi Saito, Dodgers..............81/91, 89.0, 1.95
Brian Wilson, Giants..................48/56, 85.7, 4.34
Kerry Wood, FA.......................34/40, 85.0, 3.65
CJ Wilson, Rangers...................38/45, 84.4, 4.83
Kevin Gregg, Cubs....................62/77, 80.5, 4.00
George Sherrill, Orioles..............35/45, 77.8, 3.96
Brandon Lyon, FA.....................51/71, 71.8, 4.46
Matt Capps, Pirates..................40/57, 70.2, 3.06


"On There Way to the Hall" Closers
Eric Gagne, Brewers................187/204, 91.7, 3.47
Trevor Hoffman, FA................554/621, 89.2, 2.78
Mariano Rivera, Yankees..........482/542, 88.9, 2.29
Troy Percival, Rays.................352/409, 86.1, 3.12
Billy Wagner, Mets..................385/447, 86.1, 2.40
Jason Isringhausen, FA............293/347, 84.4, 3.61
Todd Jones, FA......................319/394, 81.0, 3.97


I left out a few guys including Joe Borowski because we can easily assume that he'll never close again and doesn't belong in the Hall.

Dan Mega
12-10-2008, 06:50 AM
Rivera and Hoffman are the only HOF closers on that list.

Marqhead
12-10-2008, 07:12 AM
Rivera and Hoffman are the only HOF closers on that list.

2nd.

WhiteSoxFan84
12-10-2008, 07:34 AM
Rivera and Hoffman are the only HOF closers on that list.

Yehhh... I just needed a catchy title for that last group. "Over The Hill Closers" wouldn't fit because Mariano is still amazing, Hoff made a remarkable turnaround and ended up having a decent season last year, Percival may still go for another few more years, and Wagner may make a solid return in 2010 and beyond.

Eddo144
12-10-2008, 12:23 PM
Yehhh... I just needed a catchy title for that last group. "Over The Hill Closers" wouldn't fit because Mariano is still amazing, Hoff made a remarkable turnaround and ended up having a decent season last year, Percival may still go for another few more years, and Wagner may make a solid return in 2010 and beyond.
Why didn't you just include Rivera in the first group? He had the best year of any closer in 2008.

pythons007
12-10-2008, 01:55 PM
Why didn't you just include Rivera in the first group? He had the best year of any closer in 2008.

Lidge had the best year of any closer last year, period.

FedEx227
12-10-2008, 02:35 PM
Somehow I have trouble believing Todd Jones is "on his way" to the Hall.

soxinem1
12-10-2008, 02:45 PM
"On There Way to the Hall" Closers
Eric Gagne, Brewers................187/204, 91.7, 3.47
Trevor Hoffman, FA................554/621, 89.2, 2.78
Mariano Rivera, Yankees..........482/542, 88.9, 2.29
Troy Percival, Rays.................352/409, 86.1, 3.12
Billy Wagner, Mets..................385/447, 86.1, 2.40
Jason Isringhausen, FA............293/347, 84.4, 3.61
Todd Jones, FA......................319/394, 81.0, 3.97


What hall will these guys be going to????:tongue:

khan
12-10-2008, 02:47 PM
Gagne was a 'roider when he was good, and has sucked since then. He's a shrinky-dink, in that he's lost ~50# or so from his 'roider days.

He's a fraud, and a joke. If McGuire/Bonds don't make it to the HOF, neither does this cheater.

Eddo144
12-10-2008, 04:13 PM
Lidge had the best year of any closer last year, period.
You can make a very good case for Lidge, yes, but it's far from "period". Rivera had a better ERA (1.40 vs 1.95), WHIP (.67 vs 1.23), and K/BB (12.83 vs 2.63) and was nearly as good in save opportunities (39/40 vs 41/41). I'd pick Rivera, and probably Soria, over Lidge, but he's definitely top three.

DSpivack
12-10-2008, 04:27 PM
You can make a very good case for Lidge, yes, but it's far from "period". Rivera had a better ERA (1.40 vs 1.95), WHIP (.67 vs 1.23), and K/BB (12.83 vs 2.63) and was nearly as good in save opportunities (39/40 vs 41/41). I'd pick Rivera, and probably Soria, over Lidge, but he's definitely top three.

Umm, no, when you're perfect, you're perfect. He didn't blown one save.

RockyMtnSoxFan
12-10-2008, 05:24 PM
Umm, no, when you're perfect, you're perfect. He didn't blown one save.

Yeah, but the difference in save percentages is only 0.025. Based on the other numbers, it is more likely that Lidge got lucky a few times more than Rivera. Everybody knows that closers are the most overrated players because of the emphasis placed on a single stat, the save, which measures only the final outcome. I read somewhere that even bad teams win more than 85% of games that they lead going into the 9th inning. So saying that Lidge was better because he didn't blow a save is misleading. I would have rather had '08 Rivera on my team than '08 Lidge, because he was the better pitcher.

DSpivack
12-10-2008, 06:08 PM
Yeah, but the difference in save percentages is only 0.025. Based on the other numbers, it is more likely that Lidge got lucky a few times more than Rivera. Everybody knows that closers are the most overrated players because of the emphasis placed on a single stat, the save, which measures only the final outcome. I read somewhere that even bad teams win more than 85% of games that they lead going into the 9th inning. So saying that Lidge was better because he didn't blow a save is misleading. I would have rather had '08 Rivera on my team than '08 Lidge, because he was the better pitcher.

I agree with you on the save stat being overrated and such, but I'll take the extra win.

turners56
12-10-2008, 06:10 PM
Gagne is not a hall of fame closer...

Neither is Jones, Percival, or Isringhausen.

SBSoxFan
12-10-2008, 09:32 PM
I agree with you on the save stat being overrated and such, but I'll take the extra win.

Lidge also pitched real well in the playoffs, didn't he? Based on his previous performances, I thought no team with Brad Lidge as their closer could ever win a World Series.

DSpivack
12-10-2008, 09:37 PM
Lidge also pitched real well in the playoffs, didn't he? Based on his previous performances, I thought no team with Brad Lidge as their closer could ever win a World Series.

Amen to that. I actually began to feel bad for the guy after the 2004 and 2005 [NL, anyway :D:] playoffs.

Domeshot17
12-10-2008, 09:38 PM
You all are missing the point of the 3rd group, what he is saying is its guys who are either on their way to the hall of fame or on their way out of the game. I agree the title is a little misleading, but it is basically 3 groups, Young Bloods who just started closing, Middle of the Road guys who have stuck it out for a while, and the last group is closers who only have a short time left until they retire. He just tried to Jazz it up.

Maybe it should have been 4 groups, with the last one split between potential HOF and End of the road Closers.

But yes, Lidge had the best year. I get what you guys are saying, but when the only stat that matters is save percentage, 100% is better than 97%. It is like saying even though he scored perfect on his exam, he was 2nd best, because another guy showed all his work, even though he got a question wrong.

WhiteSoxFan84
12-10-2008, 10:19 PM
You all are missing the point of the 3rd group, what he is saying is its guys who are either on their way to the hall of fame or on their way out of the game. I agree the title is a little misleading, but it is basically 3 groups, Young Bloods who just started closing, Middle of the Road guys who have stuck it out for a while, and the last group is closers who only have a short time left until they retire. He just tried to Jazz it up.

Maybe it should have been 4 groups, with the last one split between potential HOF and End of the road Closers.

But yes, Lidge had the best year. I get what you guys are saying, but when the only stat that matters is save percentage, 100% is better than 97%. It is like saying even though he scored perfect on his exam, he was 2nd best, because another guy showed all his work, even though he got a question wrong.

Thank you sir. You are correct.
The point of this was NOT the grouping.
The point of this was to show where Bobby Jenks stands.
I was having a discussion with a fellow WSI'er yesterday and I stated that with K-Rod off the market now and rumors of Jenks being available, Jenks was the best closer available. The other guy disagreed and I was intrigued enough to put those numbers together at 2AM.

CWSpalehoseCWS
12-10-2008, 10:44 PM
What hall will these guys be going to????:tongue:

Well, if Santo gets in...

Eddo144
12-11-2008, 10:28 AM
But yes, Lidge had the best year. I get what you guys are saying, but when the only stat that matters is save percentage, 100% is better than 97%. It is like saying even though he scored perfect on his exam, he was 2nd best, because another guy showed all his work, even though he got a question wrong.
That's exactly it! No one's saying Lidge had worse results for his team than Rivera did, but we're saying Rivera pitched better this year. Using your student analogy, let's say you have a 40-question multiple choice math exam:

Lad Bridge scored 40/40, but didn't show any work for five answers, he just guessed on those and got them right. That's the equivalent of putting the first two guys on base in the ninth inning, but getting a slick defensive play from a fielder to save the game.

Rariano Mivera scored 39/40, but didn't show his work for only a single answer. For that answer, he did not guess correctly. That's the equivalent of putting the first two guys on base in the ninth inning, and ultimately not getting a good defensive play to bail him out.

So now, as a teacher, you're judging those students' abilities. You see that Rariano Mivera fully understood 39 of the 40 questions. That's excellent! He clearly has learned the material. Lad Bridge, on the other hand, only understood 35 of the 40 questions, but was a better guesser. Understanding 35 out of 40 is still extremely good, but not as good as understanding 39 questions.

Ask yourself, who was the better student? One who demonstrates they understand just about all the material, but didn't get lucky on the one thing they didn't understand, or one who understands not quite as much of the material, but gets lucky results?

Again, only Rivera and maybe Soria had better seasons than Lidge, they just didn't get the same ultimate binary results.

WhiteSoxJunkie
12-22-2008, 02:44 PM
When the hell did Todd Jones get over 300 saves?!

CashMan
12-22-2008, 02:55 PM
That's exactly it! No one's saying Lidge had worse results for his team than Rivera did, but we're saying Rivera pitched better this year. Using your student analogy, let's say you have a 40-question multiple choice math exam:

Lad Bridge scored 40/40, but didn't show any work for five answers, he just guessed on those and got them right. That's the equivalent of putting the first two guys on base in the ninth inning, but getting a slick defensive play from a fielder to save the game.

Rariano Mivera scored 39/40, but didn't show his work for only a single answer. For that answer, he did not guess correctly. That's the equivalent of putting the first two guys on base in the ninth inning, and ultimately not getting a good defensive play to bail him out.

So now, as a teacher, you're judging those students' abilities. You see that Rariano Mivera fully understood 39 of the 40 questions. That's excellent! He clearly has learned the material. Lad Bridge, on the other hand, only understood 35 of the 40 questions, but was a better guesser. Understanding 35 out of 40 is still extremely good, but not as good as understanding 39 questions.

Ask yourself, who was the better student? One who demonstrates they understand just about all the material, but didn't get lucky on the one thing they didn't understand, or one who understands not quite as much of the material, but gets lucky results?

Again, only Rivera and maybe Soria had better seasons than Lidge, they just didn't get the same ultimate binary results.


I see your point and agree with it to a certain extent. Pitching is not just who can strike who out. Pitching involves the defense. A pitcher should not be punished for putting a ball in play. I didn't look at either of their stats, but if Lidge had an ERA of 5.00 and was like 40/40 in saves and Mariano had an ERA of 1.50 and was 39/40, I would say Mariano was better. At the end of the day, it is about gettting the job done.

Eddo144
12-22-2008, 03:20 PM
I see your point and agree with it to a certain extent. Pitching is not just who can strike who out. Pitching involves the defense. A pitcher should not be punished for putting a ball in play. I didn't look at either of their stats, but if Lidge had an ERA of 5.00 and was like 40/40 in saves and Mariano had an ERA of 1.50 and was 39/40, I would say Mariano was better. At the end of the day, it is about gettting the job done.
I'm not saying a pitcher should be punished for putting a ball in play; groundball pitchers can be just as effective as strikeout pitchers.

But you can't credit the pitcher for his defense. Pitching does not involve defense, but the result does.

Rivera's ERA wasn't miles better (1.40 to 1.95), but his WHIP sure was. And WHIP doesn't take strikeouts into effect at all. It also measures results - how both Rivera and Lidge fared against the hitter they faced. WHIP tells us that for every 3 batters Rivera retired, only .67 reached based, and that for every 3 batters Lidge retired, 1.23 reached base. Using these numbers, Rivera retired 81.7% of all batters he faced, while Lidge retired "only" 70.9% of all batters he faced.

If you're measuring results, you can either look at save percentage or out percentage. I choose out percentage because there's a greater sample size and chance affects it less.