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Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 01:54 PM
Selling while the value is high: Gavin Floyd

Here is the sales pitch- Available: 25 year old pitcher (26 next OD) coming off a 17 win season with an ERA+ of 119 available. Former stud prospect appears to have turned the corner and is on the verge of being able to anchor most rotations for the next decade. Willing to listen to offers if they include primo talent.

Now I don’t expect every team to be chomping at the bit over Floyd given his peripherals. However, with the current cost of pitching and the fact that not every front office is inclined to use statistical analysis as others, there are teams that may actually believe that Floyd, given his age and cost would be worth a kings ransom in prospects. It only takes one dumb GM to make an awful trade and we know there are a couple out there, additionally we know a couple of them (Bowden, Minaya) are dying to make a statement this off-season.

First here’s the case to why Floyd is more likely a pumpkin than a princess:

In 2008 his K/BB ratio actually got worse instead of better; his homerun % went down somehow despite his LD rate increasing by 2 percent and his FB % staying the same. His entire ERA can be attributed to his BABIP of .268 (something that is a function of luck rather than skill).

Having some issue with the graphs, will just post the results

Floyd:

K/BB:
2007- 2.58
2008- 2.07

K per 9:
2007- 6.3
2008- 6.32

BB per 9:
2007- 2.44
2008-3.05

HR per 9:
2007- 2.19
2008-1.31

LD%
2007- 17%
2008- 19.1%

FB%:
2007: 40.9%
2008: 39.7%

FIP:
2007- 6:07
2008-4.77 (and FIP doesn't take into consideration LD% and FB% which were unchanged from the year before)

BABIP:
2007: .314
2008: .268 (this is not a skill based statistic, only a product of variance)

GB to FB:
2007: 1.03
2008: 1.04




When looking at these graphs (from fan graphs btw, great site) we can see that he didn’t do anything that different than he did the year before. His HR decrease looks unsustainable, his BABIP is unsustainable, his average against is almost certain to go up. In short, he’s a lot more Omar Daal than John Danks (who I think has a very good chance at being the pitcher a lot of people might thin Floyd is).


The question is, would you trade Floyd (why or why not) and what would you want for him. If I’m Kenny Williams, I’m looking to gut some team by giving up a number 4 or 5 starter than some in baseball may mistake a snumber 1 or 2.

voodoochile
11-11-2008, 01:58 PM
Stupid idea to trade a young inexpensive pitcher who just had their breakout season and is still under team control for the next 4 years or whatever.

His value because of last year won't decline significantly over the next few years no matter what unless his arm falls off.

JermaineDye05
11-11-2008, 02:00 PM
A year ago I would have kicked myself for saying this.

Keep Gavin Floyd.

He just seems to have found it, whatever confidence wasn't there before has emerged now. He pretty much became our stopper last year. I really don't expect him to fall off next year. With him and Danks, the Sox rotation looks promising for years to come.

Boondock Saint
11-11-2008, 02:03 PM
Gavin's obviously a joke of a pitcher. I lost my fantasy league because of him, and that has to mean that he's worthless in real baseball.

Marqhead
11-11-2008, 02:05 PM
This thread sucks.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 02:07 PM
Glad to see such objective empirically sound reasoning as to why Floyd won't regress next season or why trading someone while their value is at its highest is a bad idea.

Boondock Saint
11-11-2008, 02:11 PM
Glad to see such objective empirically sound reasoning as to why Floyd won't regress next season or why trading someone while their value is at its highest is a bad idea.

You can't see the forest for the trees. All you see is numbers, while everyone else sees a good pitcher that has grown immensely since coming to Chicago. He's ours for cheap for quite a while, and it should stay that way.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 02:14 PM
You can't see the forest for the trees. All you see is numbers, while everyone else sees a good pitcher that has grown immensely since coming to Chicago. He's ours for cheap for quite a while, and it should stay that way.

Same thing was said about Omar Daal, why isn't Floyd Daal? Or Rick Helling or countless other guys who had one good flukish looking year at a relatively young age

chisox616
11-11-2008, 02:26 PM
I don't think we really have a choice with Floyd. I'd consider him untouchable even. Especially with Vasquez possibly on his way out, we need all the starting pitching we can get. I don't want to see both Richard AND Poreda starting next year.

champagne030
11-11-2008, 02:28 PM
Glad to see such objective empirically sound reasoning as to why Floyd won't regress next season or why trading someone while their value is at its highest is a bad idea.

During 2008, Gavin just built upon what he started in late August 2007. He has much more command and confidence than earlier in his career. Maybe his BABIP was a little low, but maybe the experience and confidence gained in '08 will more than offset a potential 30 point increase in BABIP.

Look, I thought Floyd's pitching at the end of 2007 was a fluke, but he's not anywhere near the same guy who pitched for the Phillies or for us in July 2007.

JorgeFabregas
11-11-2008, 02:29 PM
Check his peripherals in the second half. I know the K:BB, for one, was much better.

Boondock Saint
11-11-2008, 02:30 PM
Same thing was said about Omar Daal, why isn't Floyd Daal? Or Rick Helling or countless other guys who had one good flukish looking year at a relatively young age


Jesus, would you just take off your **** colored glasses and just be happy that we've got 2 young studs in our rotation?

veeter
11-11-2008, 02:34 PM
This thread sucks.Seconded.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 02:39 PM
Check his peripherals in the second half. I know the K:BB, for one, was much better.

His K to walk ratio improved a ton in August and September for sure, oddly enough those were his two worst months in regards to ERA (not that I think that means anything). Aside from that 12 start stretch though, he was worse than 07, does that 12 start stretch represent anything predictive? Or is it merely a hot streak?

I'm going to look up how those 12 starts were against to see if there's a trend there...


Ok those 12 starts got a very nice random sampling of the league, including the Red Sox twice (though if memory serves, they were pretty average offensively in mid August) LAA, and NY, along with teams like KC and Oakland.

So yeah, those 12 starts could be something to be excited about, or it could just be a variance from a relatively small sample.

KRS1
11-11-2008, 02:43 PM
Paging Daver...You're needed on the the sales floor.

Lukin13
11-11-2008, 02:43 PM
Good thread actually...

Everyone on this forum wants change but just wants to trade our garbage in exchange for superstars.

You have to give someone up in order to get something back. The Mets aren't trading Beltran for Jenks people.

Bill: It is very hard to replace young starting pitching. I didn't check the numbers, but I believe Greg Smith had a season relative to Gavin's and he was just the centerpiece of a deal for Matt Holiday. I actually like Gavin better as he had success at the Cell while A's pitchers in general seem to suck everywhere but at home.

If you told me KW was going to sign Sabathia, Burnett or even Dempster, I would listen to Floyd offers. But otherwise I just don't know where our rotation would come from next season.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 02:44 PM
Paging Daver...You're needed on the the sales floor.

I eagerly await him dismissing research that has gone through peer review with a witty one liner.

ChiSoxFan81
11-11-2008, 02:45 PM
:threadblows:

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 02:48 PM
Good thread actually...

Everyone on this forum wants change but just wants to trade our garbage in exchange for superstars.

You have to give someone up in order to get something back. The Mets aren't trading Beltran for Jenks people.

Bill: It is very hard to replace young starting pitching. I didn't check the numbers, but I believe Greg Smith had a season relative to Gavin's and he was just the centerpiece of a deal for Matt Holiday. I actually like Gavin better as he had success at the Cell while A's pitchers in general seem to suck everywhere but at home.

If you told me KW was going to sign Sabathia, Burnett or even Dempster, I would listen to Floyd offers. But otherwise I just don't know where our rotation would come from next season.

Thanks, and I believe you nail the crux of my problem convincing people-

Every fan wants to see their team get better, but when guys like Kyle Lohse get 40 million dollar contracts they become gun shy at trading away arms. I understand that.

It's just my view that the White Sox have two pitchers many teams would love to have, and would give up a lot for. One of them, should be held onto unless they get an offer built around something like Weitters, Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Matt Cain type of young player (Danks), the other should be traded more aggressively in trying to fill the needs of 09.

LoveYourSuit
11-11-2008, 02:59 PM
With Javy crapping his pants the second half last season and dropping from the #1 starter down to #4, you have no choice with any other guy on this rotation but to keep them. Gavin is our #2 going into next year (Buehrle, Gavin, Danks...), those will be big shoes to fill but we will wait and see what happens.

kittle42
11-11-2008, 02:59 PM
Thanks, and I believe you nail the crux of my problem convincing people-

Every fan wants to see their team get better, but when guys like Kyle Lohse get 40 million dollar contracts they become gun shy at trading away arms. I understand that.

It's just my view that the White Sox have two pitchers many teams would love to have, and would give up a lot for. One of them, should be held onto unless they get an offer built around something like Weitters, Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Matt Cain type of young player (Danks), the other should be traded more aggressively in trying to fill the needs of 09.

To bring up a very good point in another thread - whom do you replace Floyd with?

voodoochile
11-11-2008, 03:01 PM
Oh man, I stopped reading the opening post before I got to the good stuff...

We are getting GRAPHS!!!

:hawk:
"I love graphs!"

:DJ:
"Trend lines based on two years of stats are great!"

:farmer:
"I was just out golfing with a ND buddy the other day and as we approached the 13th green he commented that ball followed trend lines very well on this particular hole - that's hole as in the hole where you put the golf ball to complete the whole hole. He was using a graphite putter which I had never seen from a company named Graff. I asked him if the graff helped with the trend lines."

:hawk:
"That's a whole nother can of worms there, Ed, I tell you what. I've never seen a Graff that didn't help with trend lines, but again with only two years of data, it's kind of silly to be drawing conclusions."

:farmer:
"I tried to draw some of the trend lines on that green, but it ended up looking like those artist depictions of energy fluxes around a black hole that you see... and again, that's not the same thing as the hole the golf ball goes in, which is a whole different story. I took my drawing home and tried to graph it, but I ended up practicing with my new Graff instead. I'm hoping it won't take me two years to get good enough with it to make a hole in one - not that I'd need a graff putter or even a graph of trend lines if that happened. I'd probably emit enough energy to escape a black hole..."

:hawk
"I once missed a hole in one by 6" dadgumit. If only there had been a black hole at the bottom of the hole, I might have actuall sunk it. Ever since when I go back to that hole I try to play it the same way, but it's been 2 years and my trend line is downward at that hole as well as many others."

:DJ:
"Well my trend line says I am out of here next year and but my trade value is pretty high. I mean you got a guy who threw a no-hitter for me straight up. So the announcing trend line is probably upward."

:hawk:
"We'll miss you feisty. I hope we don't miss Gavin next year. I don't know where this talk is coming from about trading him. Seems wholely silly."

:farmer:
"hole... whole... hole... why isn't whole pronounced "Wole" with a long O like Whale but with an O instead of an A? Would that make it a blo-wole on the top of their head. Oh and I'm not wearing any pants, but I agree. Only a total stat freak would even consider trading Gavin Floyd.

http://www.chicagomag.com/images/2007/October%202007/stoney2.jpg

"Farmer and I agree on something? Ain't that a kick in the hole..."

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 03:06 PM
To bring up a very good point in another thread - whom do you replace Floyd with?

Impossible to answer at the moment. There is a wealth of talent on the FA market-

The sexy names:CC, Burnett, Sheets,
Quality arms: Lowe, Dempster
The innings eaters: Garland, Byrd and so on.

Then there is the trade market: Peavy, Cain, someone we haven't heard about yet?

It would be impossible to say because we don't know what the White Sox would be getting back for Floyd. Clearly, if they get back a stud prospect they can sign a free agent whether it be a big name or just filler at the back end of the rotation or trade that blue chipper for an even better pitcher.

It all depends on how much you believe in Floyd. I myself, don't think Garland projects to be much worse than Floyd next season. Lowe has a very good chance at being better. The other names would be a massive upgrade (but are admittedly unlikely).

aryzner
11-11-2008, 03:06 PM
We need a more normal sized Steve Stone picture to adhere to the standards of the Hawk, DJ and Farmio ones.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 03:09 PM
A serous question:

What did Floyd do better than he did in 2007?



(and if you say win 17 games, I'm just going to ignore you)

thomas35forever
11-11-2008, 03:10 PM
Trading Gavin coming off a career year?

http://www.badideadesigns.com/images/bad%20toaster%201.jpg

voodoochile
11-11-2008, 03:15 PM
A serous question:

What did Floyd do better than he did in 2007?



(and if you say win 17 games, I'm just going to ignore you)

Pitched more innings.

Pitched more consistently over many more innings.

Lowered his ERA.

Pitched effectively in high pressure games against playoff caliber opponents instead of during mop up garbage time against expanded rosters.

Seriously though the guy lowered his ERA by 33% and his WHIP by 17% while tripling the number of innings he pitched and this in his first full season as a strarter.

Trading Floyd is simply silly unless you get some kind of mega blockbuster trade like Santana and Beltran for Floyd, Vazquez and Paulie...

ChiSoxFan81
11-11-2008, 03:18 PM
Trading Gavin coming off a career year?

http://www.badideadesigns.com/images/bad%20toaster%201.jpg

LOL @ "Career Year". If it truly was a career year, then I'd want to trade him now, no doubt about it.

FarmerAndy
11-11-2008, 03:20 PM
I don't necessarily agree that we should trade Gavin, but what is so wrong with expoloring possibilities? I mean, I hear possibilities being explored by fans all of the time........ as someone said earlier, they want to trade all of our bad players for good players.

It takes some to get some. And while I'm not really sold on the idea of trading Gavin Floyd, any smart GM would at least listen to offers. And you never know, some team out there might throw you the offer of a lifetime. Probably not, but it's always worth hearing what somebody is willing to give you.

This is a good thread. (Well, at least the original topic of this thread is good.)

oeo
11-11-2008, 03:24 PM
When looking at these graphs (from fan graphs btw, great site) we can see that he didnít do anything that different than he did the year before.

Seriously, this is why you can't just open up a stat book and draw conclusions. I'm not one of those that feel stats should be thrown out the window, but too much is over the top.

soxfan43
11-11-2008, 03:28 PM
It can't hurt to explore this idea if you're Kenny I guess. My question is, how many years left of arbitration or team control does Gavin have? If it's truly 4 yrs like someone said earlier, I'd keep him. But if he's going to hit arb. within the next year or 2, I'd definitely see if someone blows you away. It is sort of like the Jenks stuff we've been seeing. I dont think Kenny is planning on trading him or shopping him, but since he's going to get a huge raise, why not see if someone blows you away?

cheezheadsoxfan
11-11-2008, 03:30 PM
:rolling:Gavin's obviously a joke of a pitcher. I lost my fantasy league because of him, and that has to mean that he's worthless in real baseball.

:rolling::rolling:

oeo
11-11-2008, 03:31 PM
Good thread actually...

To say what? That we should be open to trading anyone if the return is right? Anyone can tell you that.

The OP put some stats together, and didn't even draw a conclusion. Oh, so his stats were similar to 2007, where he threw how many innings? When he was actually successful at the end of the year? Seriously, who gives a ****?

I saw actual improvement as Gavin's year went along. Both in his command of his pitches, and in his composure. The stat book unfortunately missed that.

It can't hurt to explore this idea if you're Kenny I guess. My question is, how many years left of arbitration or team control does Gavin have? If it's truly 4 yrs like someone said earlier, I'd keep him. But if he's going to hit arb. within the next year or 2, I'd definitely see if someone blows you away. It is sort of like the Jenks stuff we've been seeing. I dont think Kenny is planning on trading him or shopping him, but since he's going to get a huge raise, why not see if someone blows you away?

That's the case with any player...

We should not be shopping Gavin. We really shouldn't be shopping any starting pitchers because we're already down a starting pitcher.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 03:37 PM
Pitched more innings.

Pitched more consistently over many more innings.

Lowered his ERA.

Pitched effectively in high pressure games against playoff caliber opponents instead of during mop up garbage time against expanded rosters.

Seriously though the guy lowered his ERA by 33% and his WHIP by 17% while tripling the number of innings he pitched and this in his first full season as a strarter.

Trading Floyd is simply silly unless you get some kind of mega blockbuster trade like Santana and Beltran for Floyd, Vazquez and Paulie...


Yes, his ERA went down- however as I've demonstrated, that is in large part due to his good fortune with home runs and BABIP. He didn't strike out more people than the year before, and he walked more (per game). Generally a pitcher has control of 3 things- Walks, K's and home runs. Everything else is variance. Floyd did not improve his k's or walks. While his HR's went down a lot, his LD% suggests batters are still squaring up on him. He appears to have been as fortunate last season as Swisher was unfortunate.

As for that trade: Hardy har har. An amazing center fielder, the best pitcher of the past 4 years and unloading an awful contract for an average pitcher and a pitcher who has had one good year?

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 03:44 PM
To say what? That we should be open to trading anyone if the return is right? Anyone can tell you that.

The OP put some stats together, and didn't even draw a conclusion. Oh, so his stats were similar to 2007, where he threw how many innings? When he was actually successful at the end of the year? Seriously, who gives a ****?

I saw actual improvement as Gavin's year went along. Both in his command of his pitches, and in his composure. The stat book unfortunately missed that.



That's the case with any player...

We should not be shopping Gavin. We really shouldn't be shopping any starting pitchers because we're already down a starting pitcher.

Ever notice how everyone loves a players composure when they're having a good year? Seems that that perception was true of Phillip Hughes before he tweaked his hammy two years ago, Buchholz when he threw his no hitter, Jorge De La Rosa when he was on for about a month last season, Micah Owens in 2007 and just about any pitcher when they're not doing poorly.

The fact that beyond ERA and IP, essentially nothing changed from Gavin Floyd's stat line is the definition of a big deal. The guy has regression written all over him and this perception of better command and composer is nothing more than the musings of a fan with no scouting history watching television while ignoring hard irrefutable statistics.

You wanna tell me he pitches well to contact? Is that how he went from a turd to borderline number 1 last season? If now, what the heck else did he do? He had the exact same results save 60 points in BABIP and only 30 home runs despite the same LD and FB%.

KenBerryGrab
11-11-2008, 03:45 PM
Well, I do remember Gavin showing up in Minnesota at the end of July when the Sox really needed him, and with great starts against the Red Sox and Yankees in September when the team was stuck in the mud.

oeo
11-11-2008, 03:48 PM
Ever notice how everyone loves a players composure when they're having a good year? Seems that that perception was true of Phillip Hughes before he tweaked his hammy two years ago, Buchholz when he threw his no hitter, Jorge De La Rosa when he was on for about a month last season, Micah Owens in 2007 and just about any pitcher when they're not doing poorly.

No, actually I hated Floyd's composure until about August, when he really started to mature. I think his performances in Yankee Stadium and the Metrodome can attest to that.

The fact that beyond ERA and IP, essentially nothing changed from Gavin Floyd's stat line is the definition of a big deal. The guy has regression written all over him and this perception of better command and composer is nothing more than the musings of a fan with no scouting history watching television while ignoring hard irrefutable statistics.

You wanna tell me he pitches well to contact? Is that how he went from a turd to borderline number 1 last season? If now, what the heck else did he do? He had the exact same results save 60 points in BABIP and only 30 home runs despite the same LD and FB%.You're using his statistics from last year, when he was actually successful. He wasn't a 'turd.' When he moved to the rotation, he pitched quite well. One thing he didn't have yet was that command of his breaking ball. Hell, he still didn't have it until about midseason in 2008.

My BR-41N says your stats suck.

This isn't a case of 2005 Jon Garland. Could it be that a kid with loads of potential finally put it together? He's been on the up since June of 2007.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 03:51 PM
No, actually I hated Floyd's composure until about August, when he really started to mature. I think his performances in Yankee Stadium and the Metrodome can attest to that.



You're using his statistics from last year, when he was actually successful. He wasn't a 'turd.' When he moved to the rotation, he pitched quite well. One thing he didn't have yet was that command of his breaking ball. Hell, he still didn't have it until about midseason in 2008.

This isn't a case of 2005 Jon Garland. Could it be that a kid with loads of potential finally put it together? He's been on the up since June of 2007.

So what does he do well? It isn't getting strike outs, it's not walking very few batters and it isn't producing many ground balls. What is it that makes Floyd such a good pitcher?

oeo
11-11-2008, 03:54 PM
So what does he do well? It isn't getting strike outs, it's not walking very few batters and it isn't producing many ground balls. What is it that makes Floyd such a good pitcher?

Outs?

doublem23
11-11-2008, 03:59 PM
I eagerly await him dismissing research that has gone through peer review with a witty one liner.

I'm guessing none of these peers have ever seen a real, live baseball game, either.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 04:02 PM
Outs?

So he gets out by what? Pitching to contact? If that's the case they should trade him in a cocaine heartbeat.

doublem23
11-11-2008, 04:02 PM
So he gets out by what? Pitching to contact? If that's the case they should trade him in a cocaine heartbeat.

:burly
He'll never make a career out of that.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 04:03 PM
I'm guessing none of these peers have ever seen a real, live baseball game, either.

Given that I was referring to the work of Voros McCracken who actually was paid by a pro baseball team to you know, consult for them professionally, I'd guess he's seen a couple as games here and there.

voodoochile
11-11-2008, 04:07 PM
Yes, his ERA went down- however as I've demonstrated, that is in large part due to his good fortune with home runs and BABIP. He didn't strike out more people than the year before, and he walked more (per game). Generally a pitcher has control of 3 things- Walks, K's and home runs. Everything else is variance. Floyd did not improve his k's or walks. While his HR's went down a lot, his LD% suggests batters are still squaring up on him. He appears to have been as fortunate last season as Swisher was unfortunate.

As for that trade: Hardy har har. An amazing center fielder, the best pitcher of the past 4 years and unloading an awful contract for an average pitcher and a pitcher who has had one good year?

I completely and totally disagree with this statement. Some pitchers are more effective pitching to contact than others.

Sometimes the stats really don't tell the wole story...

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 04:07 PM
:burly
He'll never make a career out of that.


Use him as an example next time he gives up 67 home runs in 380 or so innings. Buehrle is very good at what he does, batters don't hit homers against him. Throw out his flukey 2006 and he's never given up as many homers per 9 as Floyd did during his 2008

kittle42
11-11-2008, 04:11 PM
So he gets out by what? Pitching to contact? If that's the case they should trade him in a cocaine heartbeat.

Note: I am not comparing Floyd to Greg Maddux, but Greg Maddux made quite the career of it.

You can trade Gavin Floyd if you get an outstanding deal. You can trade Gavin Floyd if you at least replace him with someone likely to get the same results. But without BOTH of those two things, you cannot trade him. The risk of him regressing is something I can deal with better than the risk of getting a bad deal in return for him and him not regressing.

doublem23
11-11-2008, 04:12 PM
Use him as an example next time he gives up 67 home runs in 380 or so innings. Buehrle is very good at what he does, batters don't hit homers against him. Throw out his flukey 2006 and he's never given up as many homers per 9 as Floyd did during his 2008

Nice job skewing the stats. :thumbsup:

Yes, Floyd's career IP/HR rate is 380/67 (5.67), but this past year he brought it down to 208/30 (6.88).

I look forward to your other peer reviewed research.

khan
11-11-2008, 04:13 PM
Unless the object of the exercise is to "go young" and "rebuild," I can't see a good reason to trade away one of the 4 healthy SPs. And that includes the disappointing Javier Vazquez, too. I'm guessing that KW wants to compete for 2009, so I'd think that he'd be more likely to add pitching than to trade it away.


Now, in a year from now when Thome, Dye, and perhaps Konerko are all off the payroll, and the team is a LOT younger/cheaper than it is now, sure. Back up the truck, and reload. Sell high.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 04:15 PM
Nice job skewing the stats. :thumbsup:

Yes, Floyd's career IP/HR rate is 380/67 (5.67), but this past year he brought it down to 208/30 (6.88).

I look forward to your other peer reviewed research.

Yeah and that was really really lucky given his FB% and LD%, people who pitch to contact and allow flyballs don't do well unless the pitch in Oakland...

It's just not a good combination, I'm not making this stuff up.

voodoochile
11-11-2008, 04:16 PM
Use him as an example next time he gives up 67 home runs in 380 or so innings. Buehrle is very good at what he does, batters don't hit homers against him. Throw out his flukey 2006 and he's never given up as many homers per 9 as Floyd did during his 2008

IN HIS FIRST COMPLETE SEASON IN THE MAJORS!

No way he'll ever improve on that... Not gonna happen, nope... dump his sorry ass...:rolleyes:

His HR/IP dropped by almost half from his previous years and is in line with Buehrle's worst years in the majors from a HR/IP perspective.

Billy, please, stop. You cannot make projections on what the next 10 years are going to be like based on 11/3 years of pitching stats, especially when the 1 is the first full season of pitching on the major league level.

You don't "sell high" on a guy entering his second year in the majors when pitching is at such a premium price. It just isn't done and no amount of stats and graphs based on a pitchers first 400 innings can prove otherwise.

If anything Floyd's trendlines are so far up for major stats (HR/IP, IP, ERA, WHIP) that you actually project him doing better next year, not worse.

voodoochile
11-11-2008, 04:17 PM
Nice job skewing the stats. :thumbsup:

Yes, Floyd's career IP/HR rate is 380/67 (5.67), but this past year he brought it down to 208/30 (6.88).

I look forward to your other peer reviewed research.

Prior to last year it was like 1/4. You actually skewed your own stats negatively by lumping it all together.

doublem23
11-11-2008, 04:18 PM
Prior to last year it was like 1/4. You actually skewed your own stats negatively by lumping it all together.

I guess I'm no Voros McCracken.

guillensdisciple
11-11-2008, 04:19 PM
So what does he do well? It isn't getting strike outs, it's not walking very few batters and it isn't producing many ground balls. What is it that makes Floyd such a good pitcher?

He knows how to win?

ode to veeck
11-11-2008, 04:20 PM
dumbest idea I have seen in maybe years, even for WSI

oeo
11-11-2008, 04:23 PM
So he gets out by what? Pitching to contact? If that's the case they should trade him in a cocaine heartbeat.

Why are you trying to find an answer to Gavin's success? His 2008 was not a 2003 Loaiza year, or a 2005 Garland year, where years of mediocrity suddenly became very good seasons. Gavin Floyd is 25 years old with limited major league experience, which means it's very possible that he wasn't just lucky and had a career year, but is actually improving.

There's not always an answer to everything, stop trying to find it. You still have this feeling that Gavin is a sack of ****. Is it totally out of the realm of possibility that a 25-year-old with a load of potential is starting to put it together?

voodoochile
11-11-2008, 04:23 PM
He knows how to win?

Heart, knowledge, composure, confidence - none of these things are graphable and yet they are as important to success in sports as any of the traditional or non-traditional stats...

TDog
11-11-2008, 04:25 PM
Stupid idea to trade a young inexpensive pitcher who just had their breakout season and is still under team control for the next 4 years or whatever.

His value because of last year won't decline significantly over the next few years no matter what unless his arm falls off.

Statheads are full of stupid ideas. GMs sometimes are full of stupid ideas. I hope this stupid idea doesn't meet up with a stupid idea in the White Sox front office, but considering the economics and the lack of major-league-ready pitching talent, I don't expect as much.

champagne030
11-11-2008, 04:26 PM
So he gets out by what? Pitching to contact? If that's the case they should trade him in a cocaine heartbeat.

You act like he produced some ridiculous BABIP. He allowed a "typical" .304 during the second half and was still quit effective. Your luck theory doesn't hold water.

pmck003
11-11-2008, 05:15 PM
The whole theory in the pro-maybe trade Floyd argument is that he could get worse, which you are basing off of comparing some select ratio's from 2007 to 2008. I don't know everything about stats, but I would assume to show at least some supporting evidence you would have to show data that correlates with pitchers of the same age, body build, types of pitches thrown, and so on who have gotten worse based off the same one year changes in production. I don't feel like doing that much work, especially considering that other GM's have more of the same information that we have.

EndemicSox
11-11-2008, 05:46 PM
If his curve wasn't so filthy, I'd wouldn't be opposed to moving him. But Floyd has the type of "stuff" that you don't deal. He either pans out in a Sox uniform, or he busts in one...

delben91
11-11-2008, 05:59 PM
Can we package Floyd, Danks and Jenks for David Weathers?

I hear David Weathers >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jenks.

whitesox901
11-11-2008, 06:36 PM
Worst thread ever

Sox4ever77
11-11-2008, 06:39 PM
Selling while the value is high: Gavin Floyd

Here is the sales pitch- Available: 25 year old pitcher (26 next OD) coming off a 17 win season with an ERA+ of 119 available. Former stud prospect appears to have turned the corner and is on the verge of being able to anchor most rotations for the next decade. Willing to listen to offers if they include primo talent.

Now I donít expect every team to be chomping at the bit over Floyd given his peripherals. However, with the current cost of pitching and the fact that not every front office is inclined to use statistical analysis as others, there are teams that may actually believe that Floyd, given his age and cost would be worth a kings ransom in prospects. It only takes one dumb GM to make an awful trade and we know there are a couple out there, additionally we know a couple of them (Bowden, Minaya) are dying to make a statement this off-season.

First hereís the case to why Floyd is more likely a pumpkin than a princess:

In 2008 his K/BB ratio actually got worse instead of better; his homerun % went down somehow despite his LD rate increasing by 2 percent and his FB % staying the same. His entire ERA can be attributed to his BABIP of .268 (something that is a function of luck rather than skill).

Having some issue with the graphs, will just post the results

Floyd:

K/BB:
2007- 2.58
2008- 2.07

K per 9:
2007- 6.3
2008- 6.32

BB per 9:
2007- 2.44
2008-3.05

HR per 9:
2007- 2.19
2008-1.31

LD%
2007- 17%
2008- 19.1%

FB%:
2007: 40.9%
2008: 39.7%

FIP:
2007- 6:07
2008-4.77 (and FIP doesn't take into consideration LD% and FB% which were unchanged from the year before)

BABIP:
2007: .314
2008: .268 (this is not a skill based statistic, only a product of variance)

GB to FB:
2007: 1.03
2008: 1.04




When looking at these graphs (from fan graphs btw, great site) we can see that he didnít do anything that different than he did the year before. His HR decrease looks unsustainable, his BABIP is unsustainable, his average against is almost certain to go up. In short, heís a lot more Omar Daal than John Danks (who I think has a very good chance at being the pitcher a lot of people might thin Floyd is).


The question is, would you trade Floyd (why or why not) and what would you want for him. If Iím Kenny Williams, Iím looking to gut some team by giving up a number 4 or 5 starter than some in baseball may mistake a snumber 1 or 2.

You could ask the samething about Carlos, though he's coming off an injury. But I expect Carlos, even if fully healthy to come back to earth, I can't see him hitting 38 or so HR by August next year.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 06:50 PM
You could ask the samething about Carlos, though he's coming off an injury. But I expect Carlos, even if fully healthy to come back to earth, I can't see him hitting 38 or so HR by August next year.

Nothing about Carlos Quentin makes him look like he's going to turn into a pumpkin. He's got one weakness thus far in his career (staying healthy) and with his kind of talent and performance you take that risk every time.

KyWhiSoxFan
11-11-2008, 07:06 PM
This is a dumb thread.

Sox4ever77
11-11-2008, 07:28 PM
Nothing about Carlos Quentin makes him look like he's going to turn into a pumpkin. He's got one weakness thus far in his career (staying healthy) and with his kind of talent and performance you take that risk every time.


You just contridicted yourself. He is injury prone. Even if he wasn't he won't hit more than 25 hr next year. Pitchers will adjust and Carlos won't.

guillen4life13
11-11-2008, 07:45 PM
If Billy Ashley takes the time to actually WATCH Gavin pitch a ballgame instead of looking at trends with small sample sizes, he may come to his senses. This game ain't played on paper!

Other than a huge blockbuster, Danks, Quentin, Alexei and Floyd are untouchable. They're under Sox control for an extended period and they are cheap. And they're stud players. Given the Sox payroll limitations, they ought not be dealing the inexpensive, quality players they have on their roster.

RedPinStripes
11-11-2008, 07:50 PM
How the **** did this thread get 5 pages long?:scratch: From posts as dumb as this.

Martinigirl
11-11-2008, 07:54 PM
Who do you think his going to take his place in the rotation? Do you really think starting pitching is that easy to replace? And if you do, why would his trade value be high?

This is like the other thread about trading Bobby. We need both of these men if we are going to get to the playoffs again next year. You don't give up good, reliable, young and inexpensive pitching.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 08:55 PM
How the **** did this thread get 5 pages long?:scratch: From posts as dumb as this.

Yeah, you're right- discussing whether or not it would be a good idea to trade a player or not is stupid. Especially when that post attempts to further our understanding of baseball by talking about what makes a person a good pitcher, what trends means and how projectable a 25 year old is.

Let's just go back to the really deep conversations on this board about where we can find those 05 WS champs hats, or why the Cubs suck or why Dye is the bestest player in the whole wide world.

Sometimes I think I should only read this board after a healthy dose of booze, that way I wouldn't mind every logical fallacy or sentence fragment.

kittle42
11-11-2008, 08:58 PM
Yeah, you're right- discussing whether or not it would be a good idea to trade a player or not is stupid. Especially when that post attempts to further our understanding of baseball by talking about what makes a person a good pitcher, what trends means and how projectable a 25 year old is.

Let's just go back to the really deep conversations on this board about where we can find those 05 WS champs hats, or why the Cubs suck or why Dye is the bestest player in the whole wide world.

Sometimes I think I should only read this board after a healthy dose of booze, that way I wouldn't mind every logical fallacy or sentence fragment.

You should not be getting ripped on for making a topic of discussion, posting some arguments for why you believe it is a decent idea, and inviting criticism. "This thread is stupid" is a pretty poor counterargument when the OP is actually trying to support his position with something. I do not generally agree with the OP, but on the other hand, no one on this team is really good enough to be considered completely untradeable, and Gavin isn't even in the Top 3.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 09:11 PM
You should not be getting ripped on for making a topic of discussion, posting some arguments for why you believe it is a decent idea, and inviting criticism. "This thread is stupid" is a pretty poor counterargument when the OP is actually trying to support his position with something. I do not generally agree with the OP, but on the other hand, no one on this team is really good enough to be considered completely untradeable, and Gavin isn't even in the Top 3.

I overreacted in that post, my bad.

The point of my post was not that I don't believe Floyd is going to have value (as I think he can be a fine back end of the rotation starter), rather I only want to bring up the power of perceived value and it's use in bettering a baseball team.

I generally consider no player to be a prized cow, everyone has a price. That said, given his struggles last season and his track record, I'd be reluctant to trade Swisher as I don't think it's possible to get a fair return for him. This does not mean that I believe that Swisher is on the cusp of super stardom, but rather that as a commodity, his value is way down. Dumping him would be a waste. Conversely, I believe that Gavin Floyd is Yahoo and the year is 1999. Forgive the analogy, as I'm sure most of us post on boards like this to escape the real world and the brutality of the markets today... but Floyd's a barrel of gas trading at 145 and if I'm Williams, I'm worried someones about to invent an electric car.

oeo
11-11-2008, 09:16 PM
I overreacted in that post, my bad.

The point of my post was not that I don't believe Floyd is going to have value (as I think he can be a fine back end of the rotation starter), rather I only want to bring up the power of perceived value and it's use in bettering a baseball team.

I generally consider no player to be a prized cow, everyone has a price. That said, given his struggles last season and his track record, I'd be reluctant to trade Swisher as I don't think it's possible to get a fair return for him. This does not mean that I believe that Swisher is on the cusp of super stardom, but rather that as a commodity, his value is way down. Dumping him would be a waste. Conversely, I believe that Gavin Floyd is Yahoo and the year is 1999. Forgive the analogy, as I'm sure most of us post on boards like this to escape the real world and the brutality of the markets today... but Floyd's a barrel of gas trading at 145 and if I'm Williams, I'm worried someones about to invent an electric car.

Well, answer this: in what way does trading Floyd better us? We're not likely to get a major league ready starter in return, or else they wouldn't be dealing for Floyd. We already only have a 4-man rotation, there's no need to add another hole unless you're damn sure someone else can be brought in. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Sounds like you're looking more towards after 2009, when with a few more pieces we have a realistic shot at making another run for a title.

RedPinStripes
11-11-2008, 09:23 PM
Yeah, you're right- discussing whether or not it would be a good idea to trade a player or not is stupid. Especially when that post attempts to further our understanding of baseball by talking about what makes a person a good pitcher, what trends means and how projectable a 25 year old is.

Let's just go back to the really deep conversations on this board about where we can find those 05 WS champs hats, or why the Cubs suck or why Dye is the bestest player in the whole wide world.

Sometimes I think I should only read this board after a healthy dose of booze, that way I wouldn't mind every logical fallacy or sentence fragment.


Trade Floyd away because we can just pull anyone out of the minors or KW will get someone with twice the talent right? BULL****! The rotation was the bright spot last year. I don't even want to think of messing with 1-4.


There are plenty of topics here I don't like. Yours just happened to be the one I picked tonight.

johnnyg83
11-11-2008, 09:32 PM
If you're trading to get potential ... wasn't that what you did to get Floyd? It's a never ending cycle ... value is high, but so is upside ... for every 8 studs in the minor leagues, maybe one or two make it to where Gavin is. And Gavn at this point s a solid #2 ... with the potential to be the #1 ... isn't that the best you could trade for? Could you get multiple #1 potential SPs for him? Otherwise it's a push at very best.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 09:35 PM
Trade Floyd away because we can just pull anyone out of the minors or KW will get someone with twice the talent right? BULL****! The rotation was the bright spot last year. I don't even want to think of messing with 1-4.


There are plenty of topics here I don't like. Yours just happened to be the one I picked tonight.

I believe I outlined other options two pages ago, I never once mentioned someone from the minors. I don't think anyone in the White Sox system would be a good bet to step in for 30 starts.

You clearly make the move with the intention of making another, whether that be signing a guy like Lowe or trading the pieces you get for Floyd for a Peavy type of pitcher.

champagne030
11-11-2008, 10:09 PM
I believe I outlined other options two pages ago, I never once mentioned someone from the minors. I don't think anyone in the White Sox system would be a good bet to step in for 30 starts.

You clearly make the move with the intention of making another, whether that be signing a guy like Lowe or trading the pieces you get for Floyd for a Peavy type of pitcher.

Why would anyone give us **** for Gavin, if the stats so clearly tell us he sucks?

Daver
11-11-2008, 10:18 PM
This thread is a hoot.

kittle42
11-11-2008, 10:25 PM
Why would anyone give us **** for Gavin, if the stats so clearly tell us he sucks?

I don't think he's saying that Floyd sucks, per se. He's saying that given the trends he pointed out, it's his belief (or there is at least the possibility) that Floyd = Omar Daal. I agree that it is a possibility, but disagree that it is the case.

He thinks that the risk of keeping Floyd and having him bust is worse than the risk of trading him and having him flourish IF we can get a good trade for him and IF the Sox are willing to break the bank a little on a FA pitcher to replace him. That's not a horrible argument. I disagree, but it is worth discussing without simply dismissing it.

Billy Ashley
11-11-2008, 10:29 PM
Why would anyone give us **** for Gavin, if the stats so clearly tell us he sucks?


First of all, there is a massive difference in being a capable number 4 or5 and sucking. A number five goes for 8-12 million a year now a days so I'd appreciate it if you didn't simplify my argument so much. Given your operant lack reading comprehension skills, I'm not sure the use it me stating this again but I stated the reason other teams would be willing to take on Floyd on the first post of this entire thread.

For those who missed it the first time:

Not every front office in baseball in savvy to statistical analysis. Several teams are in the market for pitching this off-season and should they fail to land one of the FA, they'll want to make a splash in the FA market. The Nats, the Mets and several other teams are run by buffoons who are in need of making a statement.

Floyd wouldn't be worth as much in prospects or already established major leaguers to a team like Oakland, Boston, Toronto, San Diego and a handful of other teams but a lot of clubs might be willing to give up too much for Floyd.

PalehosePlanet
11-11-2008, 10:32 PM
Glad to see such objective empirically sound reasoning as to why Floyd won't regress next season or why trading someone while their value is at its highest is a bad idea.

With all due respect, there is nothing in all of your statistical data to account for the fact that Gavin is incredibly hard to square-up and hit hard. All of his pitches have excellent movement. I know that the downside of that is that he walks a lot of hitters, but as long as he rarely gives up 3 hits in an inning it's something I can live with.

There were about 5 or 6 games this year where he gave up maybe 2 or 3 hard balls (if that) all game. I don't care if batters are making contact off of him so long as they are weak, defensive type swings.

cards press box
11-11-2008, 10:35 PM
Selling while the value is high: Gavin Floyd.

No.

This thread sucks.

Yes.

Lundind1
11-11-2008, 10:52 PM
Good, starting pitching is so easy to come by!!!

Daver
11-11-2008, 10:57 PM
Not every front office in baseball in savvy to statistical analysis.


You want to know why?
It isn't worth a squirt of piss.

It is crunching numbers way beyond normal performance and not allowing for anomalies like having a bad day.

It will never replace scouting because it can't tell you what the personality makeup of the player is.

There is a reason the so called "genius" Billy Beane hasn't won a damn thing with his teams, it's because he doesn't know how to build a winning team, only how to assemble players based on a spreadsheet.


By the numbers Mark Buerhle sucks too, so why not include him in the trade of Gavin Floyd.

champagne030
11-11-2008, 11:03 PM
I don't think he's saying that Floyd sucks, per se. He's saying that given the trends he pointed out, it's his belief (or there is at least the possibility) that Floyd = Omar Daal. I agree that it is a possibility, but disagree that it is the case.

He thinks that the risk of keeping Floyd and having him bust is worse than the risk of trading him and having him flourish IF we can get a good trade for him and IF the Sox are willing to break the bank a little on a FA pitcher to replace him. That's not a horrible argument. I disagree, but it is worth discussing without simply dismissing it.

I haven't said this thread sucks. I just disagree with his analysis of the stats and his complete reliance on stats and no live observation. I'm not opposed to trading Floyd, but find it almost impossible for a team to provide us a return that would be considered "selling high".

First of all, there is a massive difference in being a capable number 4 or5 and sucking. A number five goes for 8-12 million a year now a days so I'd appreciate it if you didn't simplify my argument so much. Given your operant lack reading comprehension skills, I'm not sure the use it me stating this again but I stated the reason other teams would be willing to take on Floyd on the first post of this entire thread.

For those who missed it the first time:

Not every front office in baseball in savvy to statistical analysis. Several teams are in the market for pitching this off-season and should they fail to land one of the FA, they'll want to make a splash in the FA market. The Nats, the Mets and several other teams are run by buffoons who are in need of making a statement.

Floyd wouldn't be worth as much in prospects or already established major leaguers to a team like Oakland, Boston, Toronto, San Diego and a handful of other teams but a lot of clubs might be willing to give up too much for Floyd.

So you're saying that your "savvy statistical analysis" provides more information than other teams have at their disposal? Using your words, a 5th starter costs $8-12M per year, so a 4 or 5 at league minimum should be quite a haul. And that's not considering you're going to be selling high. What do you really think the Nats or Mets are going to offer? If those teams are willing to trade us so many top prospects that we will turn around, for a top of the rotation pitcher, why wouldn't they just deal those prospects to that team? And you haven't been paying attention if you think we're going to get one of the top FA pitchers available.

johnnyg83
11-11-2008, 11:07 PM
You want to know why?



By the numbers Mark Buerhle sucks too, so why not include him in the trade of Gavin Floyd.

Amen. I saw a different Floyd this year. A guy whose stuff was always better than his stats. But not this year. I don't disagree with selling stocks when the value is high, but the value of a former #4 pick who has seemed to find his comfort zone with both this pitching coach, team and city ... you're guessing he's peaked ... but while some stats may support you. His progression and comfort with our system seem to point to rosier days.

kittle42
11-11-2008, 11:07 PM
So you're saying that your "savvy statistical analysis" provides more information than other teams have at their disposal?

That's where his argument falls apart, IMO.

Konerko05
11-11-2008, 11:27 PM
I don't think the premise of this thread is that outrageous. If the Sox can improve the team by trading Floyd, they should definitely consider the move. The Sox just have to make sure they can fill Gavin's production in the rotation in 2009.

An example I just thought of is the Brandon Mccarthy trade. I know Mccarthy didn't have half the talent or half the success as Floyd, so some people might dismiss this example....

Mccarthy was occupying a spot in the rotation and he was probably at his peak value. Williams traded him for three pieces that improved the White Sox organization greatly. One piece had three times the talent Mccarthy had. It isn't unreasonable for Williams to look around for a team willing to drastically overpay for Floyd.

The problem I have with Bill Ashley is the fact that he seems to think it's impossible for Floyd to improve. This was Floyd's first full season. You seem to have a problem with his strikeout and walk totals. Why is it out of the realm of possibility that a 25 year old pitcher can improve in that department? Many young pitchers improve their peripheral numbers as they age and mature.

His biggest difference from 2007 to 2008 is hits allowed. You say he was lucky because the same amount of balls were put into play. There is a difference between all balls put into play. Not every ball put into play is equal. There are such things as broken bats, jam shots, hitters popping up pitches out of the zone . I'm pretty sure those don't show up on a stat sheet. If you watched any White Sox games in 2008, you would notice hitters were having a tough time squaring up and making solid contact off Floyd.

guillen4life13
11-11-2008, 11:40 PM
The only way I see the Sox trading Floyd is if it's a Brandon McCarthy type scenario. The only hitch is that at the time of McCarthy's trade, he was a projected 5th starter on a pretty damn good rotation coming off of a 90 win season.

IIRC, at that point the rotation was to be Buehrle, Contreras, Vazquez, Garland, McCarthy, since Garcia had been traded only two weeks prior.

At that point it made sense to trade McCarthy in hindsight, but I think KW knew something no one else did. Come to think of it, I think that's been the case with just about every Sox starting pitcher traded over the last decade, excluding Garland and El Duque, both of whom have been mediocre since they were traded from here.

Wow. Garcia, McCarthy, Baldwin, Sirotka, Loaiza, etc. Who actually stayed healthy and/or did well after being traded out of here?

Madscout
11-11-2008, 11:41 PM
I don't think the premise of this thread is that outrageous. If the Sox can improve the team by trading Floyd, they should definitely consider the move. The Sox just have to make sure they can fill Gavin's production in the rotation in 2009.

An example I just thought of is the Brandon Mccarthy trade. I know Mccarthy didn't have half the talent or half the success as Floyd, so some people might dismiss this example....


Luckily for all of us, we have a GM that will not hesitate to pull the trigger if this is the case.

Lukin13
11-11-2008, 11:51 PM
The outlook on this board is extremely "what have you done for me lately".

Coming into '08 Gavin was considered a bad #5 option, and Javy was untouchable here at WSI. Now after roughly 35 starts the OP is absolutely blasted for saying that we should sell high on Floyd, and the Vazquez thread has a hundred pages of people shipping him out of town.

My issue is with the fact that we have four solid starters and a big IF at #5. I have no problem trading any one of our starting pitchers if KW brings in a proven arm via free agency or a different deal. In fact I wouldn't trade any of our starters, AND I would try and add another quality arm. I would save Clayton for an injury replacement. Odds are he will still start 20+ games.

johnnyg83
11-11-2008, 11:55 PM
I think everyone's pretty rational, if Floyd gets us Lincecum or a Hamels fine ... but if we're trading for wait and see ... why should we? We have him cheap and for a while ... same with Danks...

kittle42
11-12-2008, 01:05 AM
I think everyone's pretty rational, if Floyd gets us Lincecum or a Hamels fine ...

Well, the return isn't going to be *that* good!

Jerome
11-12-2008, 01:29 AM
good thread, at least I think

I don't want to trade Floyd because I think his elevator in a white sox uniform is going up, but if the OP wants to try and make a case otherwise, go ahead.

And it is tempting to think about, trading Floyd, replacing him with a Lowe or Dempster type from the FA market and plucking a few stud prospects from another team. I seem to recall a lot of people (not everyone of course) pissed off at the Danks and Floyd trades at the time, if KW sees another opportunity like that, why not?

I don't want to see it happen because I think Floyd will improve though. So why not cash in at that cheap contract?

guillen4life13
11-12-2008, 01:43 AM
good thread, at least I think

I don't want to trade Floyd because I think his elevator in a white sox uniform is going up, but if the OP wants to try and make a case otherwise, go ahead.

And it is tempting to think about, trading Floyd, replacing him with a Lowe or Dempster type from the FA market and plucking a few stud prospects from another team. I seem to recall a lot of people (not everyone of course) pissed off at the Danks and Floyd trades at the time, if KW sees another opportunity like that, why not?

I don't want to see it happen because I think Floyd will improve though. So why not cash in at that cheap contract?

We're happy because Danks and Floyd, at least so far, have given good results in a Sox uniform. I want to stress that both moves, IMHO were a huge gamble. They paid off. I didn't think Danks' 2007 was that bad for a first season in the majors. He would have won a lot more games if, in the beginning of the season, the Sox scored any runs for him.

Come to think of it, Danks in his 2 years in a Sox uniform has not been the beneficiary of good run support.

Taliesinrk
11-12-2008, 07:29 AM
Come to think of it, Danks in his 2 years in a Sox uniform has not been the beneficiary of good run support.

Understatement.

Further, this thread is about to get a big tomato.. that's awesome.
That could be the highlight of my day - this says a lot about my life right now.

kittle42
11-12-2008, 09:35 AM
Understatement.

Of course, it's because Danks "doesn't know how to win."

guillen4life13
11-12-2008, 10:27 AM
I guess, to go along with the idea of trading Floyd... the return would have to be huge. I mean blue chip SP prospect who could come in and contribute in 2009. I know Danks was a very highly touted prospect, but Floyd would have to get us someone like Rick Porcello in return (meaning, the return had better be one of the top 5 SP prospects in the majors). I know that may seem like a far stretch, but Porcello has done nothing at the major league level while Floyd has shown he can be a good starter and would presumably only get better.

However, though Dave Dombrowski can be kind of slow when it comes to pitching acquisitions, I don't see that type of a move happening, but if the opportunity arose I would do it in a heartbeat.

Less than that, I would have some major problems with the Sox trading him.

guillensdisciple
11-12-2008, 10:28 AM
I would understand the trade of Gavin if we got some extremely valued hitting and pitching talent out of the deal while signing a Derreck Lowe or another starter to fill the void.

As you guys have stated, he is cheap, his ceiling still hasn't been reached, so why give away a commodity like that for nothing?

Even if he proves to be below this years expectations, we didn't give him enough to screw up the team in the long run.

If he does pan out, him and Danks can become one of the best one two punches in the game. Two contrasting styles that would drive apposing hitters crazy. Floyd with a finnese type pitching style and Danks with the strike-out arsenal.

Truly, the Sox might have the build for something special, so why give up on it after one year?

RockyMtnSoxFan
11-12-2008, 10:56 AM
I agree with the OP to some extent, that Floyd might not be as good next year as he was in 08, and now might be a good time to sell high. However, IMO most of the other people are right in saying we would have to get a really good deal, namely some can't miss pitching prospects. I think the argument based on BABIP is misleading; I've seen people say this stuff before, that BABIP should be around .300, and anything else is just variance/luck. That's BS -- good pitchers induce lots of bad swings and weak contact that result in outs. In fact, the best pitchers realize that strikeouts are inefficient (except when you really need one), and use their best pitches to induce outs rather than try to blow somebody away. The same thing holds with hitters. Tony Gwynn might not have hit as many home runs as Bonds or McGwire, and his BABIP was certainly higher than average, but he was one of the best hitters of the last 30 years. Also, a change in BABIP for a young player shouldn't be a signal that he is due for a regression. In an older player, that is perhaps true. A breakout season for someone over 32 is more likely to be a fluke. But Gavin is young enough that he might be finally reaching his talent level.

thedudeabides
11-12-2008, 10:56 AM
Can this Derreck Lowe stuff please stop? I know it's often a hypothetical, but he is Borass client in his mid thirties looking for a 4+ year contract. What would make anyone think the Sox would sign him?

kitekrazy
11-12-2008, 10:56 AM
Stupid idea to trade a young inexpensive pitcher who just had their breakout season and is still under team control for the next 4 years or whatever.


Stupid is a kind word for that post. I expect comments like that from hardcore fantasy leaguers.

Good pitching is the most difficult thing to get and replace in MLB.

Discussion like this should be left for Pirate fans or teams who are farm systems for other teams.

khan
11-12-2008, 10:59 AM
The only way I see the Sox trading Floyd is if it's a Brandon McCarthy type scenario. The only hitch is that at the time of McCarthy's trade, he was a projected 5th starter on a pretty damn good rotation coming off of a 90 win season.

IIRC, at that point the rotation was to be Buehrle, Contreras, Vazquez, Garland, McCarthy, since Garcia had been traded only two weeks prior.

The Garcia trade returned a near-MLB ready arm. And the McCarthy trade returned TWO MLB-ready arms. And the minor league system had more pieces in it to trade or use than it does now, if memory serves correctly. And the team was thought to be "more complete" and "more balanced," with Podsednik as a leadoff man and Iguchi as an able #2 in the lineup. So even the McCarthy trade isn't really an apt comparison, as the team is not in the same condition now as it was back then.

Given the totality of what IS in the lineup [tons of slow, aging sluggers] and what ISN'T in the lineup right now [a #1 or #2 hitter], I'd be against trading ANY of the 4 SP, unless 2 MLB-ready arms come back. Given the gaping holes in the starting lineup [CF/2B/3B], I'd be against trading ANY of the 4 SP. Given that the club is already down a SP with the injury to Contrereas, I wouldn't trade an SP. Trading away ANY of the extant healthy and MLB-vetted arms adds yet another hole for KW to fill, even IF it solves some other issues.

kittle42
11-12-2008, 11:05 AM
Can this Derreck Lowe stuff please stop?

Agreed. It's Derek. Is it that ****ing hard to spell it right?

esbrechtel
11-12-2008, 11:14 AM
We do not have insane depth in starting pitching...we should not be trading ANY of them...

kittle42
11-12-2008, 11:26 AM
We do not have insane depth in starting pitching...we should not be trading ANY of them...

They can be traded if they can be replaced by comparable FAs or if picthing is received in trades.

khan
11-12-2008, 11:29 AM
They can be traded if they can be replaced by comparable FAs or if picthing is received in trades.

...Or even at the trade deadline, IF Richard or Poreda prove themselves to be MLB-ready. But not in the offseason, IMO. I'd actually prefer that KW would ADD another SP-capable arm in the offseason as 6th or 7th in the SP "depth chart," even if it is a veteran, a rental, or a recent injury risk.

russ99
11-12-2008, 04:42 PM
They can be traded if they can be replaced by comparable FAs or if picthing is received in trades.

That's the thing. There's not comparable value out there in the FA market. All these guys are looking to cash in for way more salary and years than the Sox would be willing to offer.

Floyd is a young healthy pitcher and IMO as close to a sure thing as we can get in this league. I'm not expecting him to be an ace as some do, but he's a better 2/3 option than anyone available this offseason in FA or trade.

With SP a question mark already: we have an absolute need for a fifth starter (any return by Contreras in 2009 IMO is wishful thinking, Richard is a stopgap at best and Poreda ultimately should max out at reliever) and the need for a starter upgrade with Sox looking to deal Vazquez, why take the chance on trading Floyd? Or are you advocating dealing Floyd and keeping Vazquez?

There are way too many holes elsewhere on this club and I don't want to see all of Fields, Getz and Anderson starting.

turners56
11-12-2008, 06:47 PM
Floyd is nowhere near the complete product. He can still develop and still needs to develop. 2008 wasn't a fluke, but saying that he wasn't lucky would be lying. I don't see any reason to trade him because of his tender age and cheap price tag unless it can yield pieces that can contribute right now in the rotation, second base, third base, or center field plus another prospect or two. That isn't going to happen, so no, we should not trade him.

WhiteSoxFan84
11-12-2008, 10:17 PM
I didn't read all 5 pages of this thread (the fact that it has 5 pages of responses amazes me alone), but I have to throw this in...

How do you call Floyd's 2008 season flukish? Didn't he have 2 or 3 near no-hitters? I don't care who he faced in those games, but to come so close to throwing a no hitter no just once, but at least twice if not 3 times in ONE season? That's proof right there.

champagne030
11-12-2008, 10:40 PM
I didn't read all 5 pages of this thread (the fact that it has 5 pages of responses amazes me alone), but I have to throw this in...

How do you call Floyd's 2008 season flukish? Didn't he have 2 or 3 near no-hitters? I don't care who he faced in those games, but to come so close to throwing a no hitter no just once, but at least twice if not 3 times in ONE season? That's proof right there.

luck.....

WhiteSoxFan84
11-12-2008, 10:48 PM
luck.....

lol i guess. this almost reminds me of people who call our 2005 white sox lucky. HOW???? in no way, shape, or form were we lucky in the regular season, we won 99 games! and how the hell were we lucky in playoffs? we won 11 of 12 games!!! lol

RedPinStripes
11-12-2008, 11:35 PM
I'm still trying to figure out how the **** this thread got to be 8 pages. :scratch:

Nellie_Fox
11-12-2008, 11:38 PM
I'm still trying to figure out how the **** this thread got to be 8 pages. :scratch::tomatoaward

Lundind1
11-12-2008, 11:39 PM
I just don't see him being totally ready yet. I will agree with that. He might be seeing all of this improvement because of the coaching and the organization. Look at Brandon McCarthy, he has gone nowhere with injuries. I think that Don Cooper has that effect on young talented pitchers that other coaches just don't. It is like the magic touch with a bit of tough love. If anything, you need to be looking at dealing some of the over-loaded contracts of veterans that are over 30...ahem ahem ahem...

Lundind1
11-12-2008, 11:40 PM
:tomatoaward

Bout time!!!

Eddo144
11-13-2008, 09:17 AM
I didn't read all 5 pages of this thread (the fact that it has 5 pages of responses amazes me alone), but I have to throw this in...

How do you call Floyd's 2008 season flukish? Didn't he have 2 or 3 near no-hitters? I don't care who he faced in those games, but to come so close to throwing a no hitter no just once, but at least twice if not 3 times in ONE season? That's proof right there.
Seriously, you're going to use no-hitters as proof? Johnny Van Der Meer threw two consecutive no-hitters, and he's just an answer to a trivia question now.

I disagree with Billy that the Sox should trade Floyd; at the very least, he's a good, cheap third or fourth starter. But for those claiming he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, how do you know? You just assume a young pitcher will get better?

News flash: that's not a given. Look at Mark Fydrich, or Jason Bere, or Kip Wells, or Rick Helling. Young pitchers can have an excellent year, then fall back to earth.

The OP never said he expected Floyd to become a bad pitcher, he just suggested that Floyd might be at his peak right now, and used some evidence, at least, to back up his theory. I don't necessarily agree with him, but those of you brushing him off as crazy are even worse.

4 points
11-17-2008, 05:49 AM
At the risk of being ripped, here goes.

Gavin Floyd will be the Nick swisher of 2009.:whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner:

...
11-17-2008, 10:03 AM
At the risk of being ripped, here goes.

Gavin Floyd will be the Nick swisher of 2009.:whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner:

I'll take a .219 BA from Floyd any day.

HomeFish
11-17-2008, 11:22 AM
I didn't read all 5 pages of this thread (the fact that it has 5 pages of responses amazes me alone), but I have to throw this in...

How do you call Floyd's 2008 season flukish? Didn't he have 2 or 3 near no-hitters? I don't care who he faced in those games, but to come so close to throwing a no hitter no just once, but at least twice if not 3 times in ONE season? That's proof right there.

Sounds a lot like Esteban Loaiza in 2003.

voodoochile
11-17-2008, 11:52 AM
Sounds a lot like Esteban Loaiza in 2003.

Except for the age difference and service time pitching at the Major League level.

HomeFish
11-17-2008, 11:56 AM
True, and Gavin Floyd's sudden success is not due to a magical new pitch.

munchman33
11-17-2008, 01:12 PM
At the risk of being ripped, here goes.

Gavin Floyd will be the Nick swisher of 2009.:whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner:

Ridiculous. Even Gavin isn't that bad a hitter.

whitesox901
11-17-2008, 02:39 PM
At the risk of being ripped, here goes.

Gavin Floyd will be the Nick swisher of 2009.:whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner::whiner:

What does that even mean? :?:

Konerko05
11-17-2008, 02:54 PM
In the last two pages, Floyd has been compared to Esteban Loaiza and Nick Swisher.

Can we just close this thread now before it gets any more asinine?

daveeym
11-17-2008, 03:30 PM
:threadsucksThis thread sucks.

Just wanted to reiterate this.

soxinem1
11-17-2008, 05:41 PM
I'm not sure I'd call Floyd untouchable, and I'm also not sure trading him is a bad idea.

Eight to twelve months ago many people on this board were talking about him as a long reliever for 2008 and what a mistake he was, so attacking anyone proposing for him being traded while his value is high is not exactly being objective.

The league did adjust to him as the season went on. We'll have to see if he contunues to do the same.

He was much more hittable as the year progressed.

He gave up a ton of HR's, especially from July onward.

He is absolutely brutal holding runners, just like the guy he was traded for.

His mental makeup was questionable when he got here, and he may have turned a corner.

If some team wants to dump high level prosepects and real MLB talent, sure, why not?

I sure don't see the Marlins crying after the trade they made with DET. In fact, I'll bet the Tigers would take it back if they could.

Should we shop him? No, but seeing that we need a little of everything I'd sure listen to see who is offering what, especially since he would be dirt cheap this year. That has a price too.

turners56
11-17-2008, 05:54 PM
I'll take a .219 BA from Floyd any day.

Every pitcher would be Cy Young if they had pitched to Nick Swisher all the time last year. xD

SBSoxFan
11-17-2008, 07:21 PM
I'm not sure I'd call Floyd untouchable, and I'm also not sure trading him is a bad idea.

Eight to twelve months ago many people on this board were talking about him as a long reliever for 2008 and what a mistake he was, so attacking anyone proposing for him being traded while his value is high is not exactly being objective.

The league did adjust to him as the season went on. We'll have to see if he contunues to do the same.

He was much more hittable as the year progressed.

He gave up a ton of HR's, especially from July onward.

He is absolutely brutal holding runners, just like the guy he was traded for.

His mental makeup was questionable when he got here, and he may have turned a corner.

If some team wants to dump high level prosepects and real MLB talent, sure, why not?

I sure don't see the Marlins crying after the trade they made with DET. In fact, I'll bet the Tigers would take it back if they could.

Should we shop him? No, but seeing that we need a little of everything I'd sure listen to see who is offering what, especially since he would be dirt cheap this year. That has a price too.

Which is why the vast majority of people on this board do something other than baseball for a living. All the analysis in the world won't change that.

mzh
11-17-2008, 07:33 PM
Sounds a lot like Esteban Loaiza in 2003.


Except Esteban Loaiza was a chance pickup who had a career year. There is a reason KW gave up Freddy Garcia to get this kid. Esteban Loaiza had been a mediocre pitcher who happened to have a good year. These are young pitchers who are showing talent early in their careers, and after 08, we have no reason to think they are not good pitchers.

ode to veeck
11-17-2008, 07:41 PM
I can't believe this really dumb thread is still petering along ....

Daver
11-17-2008, 07:53 PM
I can't believe this really dumb thread is still petering along ....

This is like watching an endless number of clowns exit one of those mini cars, I just can't stop watching it in disbelief.

jabrch
11-18-2008, 01:17 AM
Don't feed the trolls.

RadioheadRocks
11-18-2008, 03:30 AM
http://allyourbase.shackspace.com/thread_sucks.jpg

jabrch
11-18-2008, 10:27 AM
I'm still trying to figure out how the **** this thread got to be 8 pages. :scratch:

I'll take a guess...windbaggy morons...

spawn
11-18-2008, 11:03 AM
This is like watching an endless number of clowns exit one of those mini cars, I just can't stop watching it in disbelief.
:thumbsup:

4 points
11-25-2008, 06:08 AM
If Billy Ashley takes the time to actually WATCH Gavin pitch a ballgame instead of looking at trends with small sample sizes, he may come to his senses. This game ain't played on paper!

Other than a huge blockbuster, Danks, Quentin, Alexei and Floyd are untouchable. They're under Sox control for an extended period and they are cheap. And they're stud players. Given the Sox payroll limitations, they ought not be dealing the inexpensive, quality players they have on their roster.

You`re calling Gavin a stud.:scratch::scratch::scratch::scratch::scratch:

guillen4life13
11-25-2008, 09:48 AM
You`re calling Gavin a stud.:scratch::scratch::scratch::scratch::scratch:

Stud in the sense that he is young and there's good reason to believe he will only get better. And Gavin has some pretty damn good stuff, confidence was always his problem.

Eddo144
11-25-2008, 01:54 PM
Stud in the sense that he is young and there's good reason to believe he will only get better. And Gavin has some pretty damn good stuff, confidence was always his problem.
Now, let me preface this by saying I'd only trade Floyd if I got a very overwhelming offer, but what makes you so sure there's "good reason to believe he will only get better". Some of his peripherals suggest that he's not truly as good as he wound up this year. History is littered with pitchers who had one or two good years and regressed mightily. There's a very real chance Floyd is at his peak, or at least really close to it.

MISoxfan
11-25-2008, 03:29 PM
Why do you think BABIP is completely out of the pitchers hand? BABIP for both hitters and pitchers is not completely up to chance. Some pitchers will allow for a lot of weak contact giving them a lower BABIP.

JorgeFabregas
11-25-2008, 04:00 PM
Why do you think BABIP is completely out of the pitchers hand? BABIP for both hitters and pitchers is not completely up to chance. Some pitchers will allow for a lot of weak contact giving them a lower BABIP.
Almost all pitchers hover around .300 BABIP for their career. The ones who average a little bit lower are usually groundball pitchers. Gavin's G/F ratio didn't change at all last year.

His numbers, should they regress, won't necessarily regress by that much, though. Bill James, for instance, guesses that Floyd's ERA will be 4.00 and that he'll pitch 217 innings next season. That's very valuable in the AL.

jabrch
11-25-2008, 04:06 PM
Bill James, for instance, guesses that...

No truer statements have been made.

spiffie
11-25-2008, 04:10 PM
The only thing stopping Gavin Floyd from winning the Cy Young next year is the chance that John Danks will win it. Those two are both due for 20-win seasons next year, and one of them will be the AL ERA leader and Cy Young winner. All the numbers nerds blathering on about BABIP and VORP and NARGLFIO and whatever bull**** numbers they cook up between marathon D&D sessions isn't going to change the fact these kids know how to pitch with guts, heart, and brains. Until one of these propellerhead geek squad guys figures out how to measure those things, the things all great pitchers have, all the numbers in the world don't mean ****.

Anyone who wants to trade Gavin Floyd for anything this side of Albert Pujols should take all their Sox stuff, make a big bonfire with it, and then jump in so that we never have to hear that kind of stupid dumbass thinking ever again.

JorgeFabregas
11-25-2008, 04:16 PM
So what are you thinking for Gavin's ERA next year, then?

spiffie
11-25-2008, 04:26 PM
So what are you thinking for Gavin's ERA next year, then?

I'm thinking somewhere around 3.00 or so for Gavin. I think he's just a bit more inconsistent than Danks so there will be a couple bad games to pump that number up.

Danks I'm guessing somewhere around 2.65.

decolores9628
11-25-2008, 04:41 PM
I'm thinking somewhere around 3.00 or so for Gavin. I think he's just a bit more inconsistent than Danks so there will be a couple bad games to pump that number up.

Danks I'm guessing somewhere around 2.65.


2.65?! Cy Danks!

I think they will both be around 3.50 with Gavin being a little higher, maybe 3.60 or 3.70, still very respectable

whitesox901
11-25-2008, 05:29 PM
The only thing stopping Gavin Floyd from winning the Cy Young next year is the chance that John Danks will win it. Those two are both due for 20-win seasons next year, and one of them will be the AL ERA leader and Cy Young winner. All the numbers nerds blathering on about BABIP and VORP and NARGLFIO and whatever bull**** numbers they cook up between marathon D&D sessions isn't going to change the fact these kids know how to pitch with guts, heart, and brains. Until one of these propellerhead geek squad guys figures out how to measure those things, the things all great pitchers have, all the numbers in the world don't mean ****.

Anyone who wants to trade Gavin Floyd for anything this side of Albert Pujols should take all their Sox stuff, make a big bonfire with it, and then jump in so that we never have to hear that kind of stupid dumbass thinking ever again.

I agree with the bold, and..I also think Mark can probably win 20 games as well, he won 19 back in 2002.

PaleHoseGeorge
11-25-2008, 08:06 PM
When the conversation turns towards trading young proven talent for young unproven talent, there is no place like WSI to bring out the crazies.
:wink:

Here's my thought. Let's trade Gavin Floyd, but only for an upgrade. For example, Gavin Floyd is a former #1 pick so I would insist that we get another former #1 pick for him. Matt Ginter ought to fill the bill... besides, he has more major league experience than Floyd!

:screwloose:

shes
11-25-2008, 08:08 PM
It's funny how snarky and mean some posters at WSI are. The guy posts a fact-based idea and all he gets is sarcastic one-liners and insults. You guys are acting like Floyd just had a year like Volquez, Lincecum, or Danks. He had an above-average to good year and faded down the stretch, although a few big starts seems to be obscuring that fact for a lot of people. His value won't ever be higher unless he has a significantly better year in 2009. What is the likelihood of that happening?

Floyd has always been the kind of pitcher that has to pitch around the plate. When he limits his walks, his home runs skyrocket. He simply does not locate the ball in the strike zone with any consistency. Pitchers like that never become aces unless they have unreal stuff. Floyd does not. A lot of signs point to Floyd never repeating his 2008 success. While I sure do hope I am wrong -- I don't see KW trading Floyd -- I can't see Gavin ever anchoring the front end of a rotation. If you can trade him to someone who believes he can, why not do it? Buy low, sell high, right?

Dan Mega
11-25-2008, 08:10 PM
The only thing stopping Gavin Floyd from winning the Cy Young next year is the chance that John Danks will win it. Those two are both due for 20-win seasons next year, and one of them will be the AL ERA leader and Cy Young winner. All the numbers nerds blathering on about BABIP and VORP and NARGLFIO and whatever bull**** numbers they cook up between marathon D&D sessions isn't going to change the fact these kids know how to pitch with guts, heart, and brains. Until one of these propellerhead geek squad guys figures out how to measure those things, the things all great pitchers have, all the numbers in the world don't mean ****.

Anyone who wants to trade Gavin Floyd for anything this side of Albert Pujols should take all their Sox stuff, make a big bonfire with it, and then jump in so that we never have to hear that kind of stupid dumbass thinking ever again.

:thumbsup:

I TOTALLY agree with you! Too bad these so called "fans" can't see the same thing!

PaleHoseGeorge
11-25-2008, 08:21 PM
It's funny how snarky and mean some posters at WSI are. The guy posts a fact-based idea and all he gets is sarcastic one-liners and insults. You guys are acting like Floyd just had a year like Volquez, Lincecum, or Danks. He had an above-average to good year and faded down the stretch, although a few big starts seems to be obscuring that fact for a lot of people. His value won't ever be higher unless he has a significantly better year in 2009. What is the likelihood of that happening?

Floyd has always been the kind of pitcher that has to pitch around the plate. When he limits his walks, his home runs skyrocket. He simply does not locate the ball in the strike zone with any consistency. Pitchers like that never become aces unless they have unreal stuff. Floyd does not. A lot of signs point to Floyd never repeating his 2008 success. While I sure do hope I am wrong -- I don't see KW trading Floyd -- I can't see Gavin ever anchoring the front end of a rotation. If you can trade him to someone who believes he can, why not do it? Buy low, sell high, right?

The guy is a starting pitcher who only broke 100+ innings in a season for the first time in his career this past summer?

I'm guessing some people's definition of "facts" is a lot more filled with "opinion" than many others would ever allow for.

Billy Ashley
11-29-2008, 10:47 AM
The guy is a starting pitcher who only broke 100+ innings in a season for the first time in his career this past summer?

I'm guessing some people's definition of "facts" is a lot more filled with "opinion" than many others would ever allow for.

Yeah, unlike those facts stated a page ago how both Floyd and Danks are both going to win 20 games next year...

He knows how to pitch. He's so super!!!!

PaleHoseGeorge
11-29-2008, 12:46 PM
Yeah, unlike those facts stated a page ago how both Floyd and Danks are both going to win 20 games next year...

He knows how to pitch. He's so super!!!!

I suggest you find where someone made such an assertion and call them out on it. It certainly wasn't me...

Speaking of silly, I'm sure you'll agree any pitcher who can deliver even 15 wins in a season is highly valuable and worthy of a slot in the everyday rotation of the Chicago White Sox. Given the youth of Danks (age 23, 12 wins) and Floyd (age 25, 17 wins), I'm sure you wouldn't argue any of these facts with mere opinions. Not you...

Ziggy S
11-29-2008, 01:46 PM
I like both pitchers a lot, but Danks is clearly better and wins and losses don't even indicate half the picture of a starter's value, especially in the middle relief/setup guy/closer era. Floyd could very well improve and he's cheap enough contract wise where he absolutely will not get dealt unless some moronic GM decides to offer the moon, stars, and all the gefilte fish in Tel Aviv for him. However, he could also end up being a one year wonder, age notwhithstanding. We'll see in the next season or two.

jabrch
11-29-2008, 03:28 PM
I like both pitchers a lot, but Danks is clearly better and wins and losses don't even indicate half the picture of a starter's value, especially in the middle relief/setup guy/closer era. Floyd could very well improve and he's cheap enough contract wise where he absolutely will not get dealt unless some moronic GM decides to offer the moon, stars, and all the gefilte fish in Tel Aviv for him. However, he could also end up being a one year wonder, age notwhithstanding. We'll see in the next season or two.

This isn't an either/or situation. We need 5 starters who can go 200+ and win 15+. There is absolutely no reason to trade Floyd unless some GM comes and offers us a most ridiculous package of TOP prospects who are ready to go. And for a package like that, Jake Peavey is available.

shes
11-30-2008, 11:15 AM
The guy is a starting pitcher who only broke 100+ innings in a season for the first time in his career this past summer?

I'm guessing some people's definition of "facts" is a lot more filled with "opinion" than many others would ever allow for.

Certainly, when evaluating players -- especially young ones -- facts tend to become pretty subjective.

I guess I just don't see this is a cockamamie idea the way that others do. Young above-average pitchers often net a lot more in trade than they end up being worth.

soxinem1
11-30-2008, 12:20 PM
All the more reason why the option of trading Floyd should not be closed. If someone wants to offer the world for him, let him go.

Remember, it was not even a year ago a ton of posters on this board were claiming the trade was a failure, and that he should be a long man in the bullpen.

An extremely cheap 17-game winner could have a nice price, even more so than Peavy, since he will have a huge contract to assume in addition to what has to be given up to aquire him.

I don't think it should be ruled out, as unlikely as it would be.