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SoxNation05
10-25-2008, 03:47 PM
It's been stated by Lip that Chris Getz will not be starting at 2B for the Sox next year. It has also been made well known the Alexei Rameriz will be moving to his natural position, shortstop. So that leaves us a hole at second base to fill either through FA or trade. There are many different options.
1. Orland Hudson-Should come at around at least 10 million a year for 3-4 years. Great glove with a pretty decent bat. Injuries may be a problem.
2. Robinsin Cano- Through trade. Would be a very hefty price but a fixture in the infield for years to come. Coming off a horrible year.
3. Brian Roberts- Shouldn't be as high as an order as Cano but the price is still high. IMO the best fit. Would bat leadoff and get on base for the middle of the order.
4. Luis Castillo- Last resort leadoff man. The Mets don't want him should come very easily from what I have read.
5. David Eckstein- Not a great fielder and not a great hitter. He's a stop gap.
6. Mark Grudzielanek- Good fielder with a steady bat. Injury proin. Good clubhouse prescense.
7. Ray Durham- Was great in his first stint with the Sox. Still an average bat but not the same speed as he use to have.

Rockabilly
10-25-2008, 04:17 PM
I want Robinson Cano as our 2B for next year..

soxfan21
10-25-2008, 05:46 PM
I think that Roberts would be the best fit, but I think Baltimore is going to give him a good offer, or the Cubs would dish out a ton of money for him. Hudson would be nice though and I wouldn't mind settling for him.

Daver
10-25-2008, 05:53 PM
Alexei Ramirez.

I want Mags back
10-25-2008, 06:03 PM
for me its Hudson, Roberts, or none of these ****s

Domeshot17
10-25-2008, 07:30 PM
Cano is exactly what we do not need. Another high power lower speed player. He is very good do not get me wrong, but we DO NOT need another power hitter. We need someone to hit 1 and 2 so when our power hitters hit, they score. Cano hit 271 last year with 14 homers. He has 12 stolen bases and 14 caught stealing over his CAREER. He is a terrible fit. He also likely costs the most of this group and is not a high OBP guy.

Brian Roberts is the no brainer here. He is always a high .280 to 300 hitter. He steals 30-40 bases a year. He gets on base at a great clip, he puts a lot of balls in the gaps, a ton, in our park his OPS should blow up. He is a guy who could hit 1 or 2 and be a game changer.

Hudson, I do not like him. He too has no speed. He does not steal bases, he hits well and controls the bat, but he doesnt make much difference for us. He is basically a linear addition to replace Cabrera.

In my perfect world, we sign Furcal and trade for Roberts. Move TCM to 3b for the year. He has the arm and good instincts to play the hot corner. An IF of Konerko-Roberts-Furcal-TCM would be fantastic offensively (especially if we get a full year of 2nd half Pk) and very strong defensively.

Daver
10-25-2008, 07:34 PM
In my perfect world, we sign Furcal and trade for Roberts. Move TCM to 3b for the year. He has the arm and good instincts to play the hot corner. An IF of Konerko-Roberts-Furcal-TCM would be fantastic offensively (especially if we get a full year of 2nd half Pk) and very strong defensively.

Ramirez has never played third.

But I know, that makes no difference as long as the team can hit.

Domeshot17
10-25-2008, 07:40 PM
Ramirez has never played third.

But I know, that makes no difference as long as the team can hit.

I could be wrong, I thought he played a few innings there during the year this year.

My point was, I think he has the skill sets that translate well for 3b. He has good hands, good reaction time, and a strong arm. It could not work at all, but he also had never played 2b until last year. I know you will put down anyone who is not Joe Crede at 3rd, but it is time to move on. The 3b market is terrible. If we can trade JD and Javy for a number 1 sp, then we could move Swish to right and TCM to CF.

The problem is we need a 1 and a 2 hitter. We do not have either. We have 2 open positions right now, 3b and 1 MIF slot. There is 1 3b in the league who fills a top 2 hitter role, Figgins. He is not a good defensive 3b and Alexei might very well be stronger there than figgins. The way you hide an average 3b is with a great SS, Furcal is the cream of the crop. A Defense of Furcal and Roberts up the middle would be one of the best if not the best in the AL.

Edit: Ramirez only logged 1 inning at 3rd my fault. It was a good inning though!!

WhiteSox5187
10-25-2008, 07:43 PM
I don't think we have a prayer to get Roberts, but in a perfect world he would be my starting second baseman.

Daver
10-25-2008, 08:10 PM
I could be wrong, I thought he played a few innings there during the year this year.

My point was, I think he has the skill sets that translate well for 3b.

His skillset could make him a premier SS, as opposed to an above average third baseman. Getz has played third, and can handle it better than Ramirez, and Getz could be a leadoff hitter.

russ99
10-25-2008, 08:49 PM
I think that Roberts would be the best fit, but I think Baltimore is going to give him a good offer, or the Cubs would dish out a ton of money for him. Hudson would be nice though and I wouldn't mind settling for him.

The O's owner loves Roberts. He's not going anywhere, regardless of how many crappy prospects Hendry throws his way. If Angelos has a surprising and sudden change of heart, I doubt the Sox could compete with other teams' packages without including part of our young core.

I wonder if the Yankees would go for Vazquez as part of a package for Cano... They're always looking for experienced arms, and aren't put off by high salaries, or even recent performance.

Daver
10-25-2008, 09:13 PM
The O's owner loves Roberts. He's not going anywhere, regardless of how many crappy prospects Hendry throws his way. If Angelos has a surprising and sudden change of heart, I doubt the Sox could compete with other teams' packages without including part of our young core.

I wonder if the Yankees would go for Vazquez as part of a package for Cano... They're always looking for experienced arms, and aren't put off by high salaries, or even recent performance.

That no trade clause in Vazquez's contract means little.

WhiteSox5187
10-25-2008, 09:17 PM
That no trade clause in Vazquez's contract means little.
I'm not positive but I think that NTC only includes teams in the AL and NL West.

Daver
10-25-2008, 09:32 PM
I'm not positive but I think that NTC only includes teams in the AL and NL West.

Nope.

WhiteSox5187
10-25-2008, 09:39 PM
Nope.
Yep.

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081011&content_id=3611372&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws

Daver
10-25-2008, 09:53 PM
Yep.

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081011&content_id=3611372&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws

He can't be traded to the Yankees, it was added to his deal when he agreed to be traded from the Yankees to a west coast team.

BleacherBandit
10-25-2008, 10:34 PM
I don't know why people haven't picked Roberts in the poll.


It's asking who would you most like playing Second Base for the Sox next year, not who do we viably have a chance at landing.

Noneck
10-25-2008, 10:48 PM
I don't know why people haven't picked Roberts in the poll.


It's asking who would you most like playing Second Base for the Sox next year, not who do we viably have a chance at landing.

I feel the same way for Hudson, Cano and Roberts.

WhiteOut05
10-25-2008, 11:08 PM
I like Grudz for a few reasons.

1- Orlando Hudson apparently was asking for around 13-15 million annually....LATE

2- Grudz is a veteran who could play second for a couple years while Beckham matures or somebody in the system steps up.

3- he would provide a veteran/grinder presence and could teach Getz a lot as they are kind of the same mold: not flashy

4- He would be a nice number two hitter. If we could trade for Figgins, I wouldn't mind having Grudz hit after him to set up for TCQ & Co.

Lip Man 1
10-25-2008, 11:19 PM
Sox Nation 05:

Slight correction please to your opening line. I never said Getz won't, under any circumstances, be the starting 2nd baseman in 2009 for the Sox (that contention comes across because of the way you wrote your sentence.)

Why I said was that I was told Kenny doesn't want two inexperienced players up the middle on the team in 2009 but I also said that I was told from enough people that Getz could start there IF Kenny can't get a veteran.

Lip

Brian26
10-25-2008, 11:27 PM
Who the hell voted for Durham?

Sockinchisox
10-25-2008, 11:36 PM
Who the hell voted for Durham?

Ray Durham.

jabrch
10-25-2008, 11:39 PM
Alexei Ramirez.


I agree with you. I'd really like to see Alexei stay there, and we sign Furcal to lead off and play SS.

StillMissOzzie
10-26-2008, 01:40 AM
The O's owner loves Roberts. He's not going anywhere, regardless of how many crappy prospects Hendry throws his way. If Angelos has a surprising and sudden change of heart, I doubt the Sox could compete with other teams' packages without including part of our young core.

I wonder if the Yankees would go for Vazquez as part of a package for Cano... They're always looking for experienced arms, and aren't put off by high salaries, or even recent performance.

That no trade clause in Vazquez's contract means little.

Here Daver seems to imply that Vazquez COULD be traded to the Yankees.

He can't be traded to the Yankees, it was added to his deal when he agreed to be traded from the Yankees to a west coast team.
And here, Daver says that Vazquez CAN'T be traded to the Yankees.

Way to straddle the argument...

SMO
:rolleyes:

Craig Grebeck
10-26-2008, 08:04 AM
Here Daver seems to imply that Vazquez COULD be traded to the Yankees.


And here, Daver says that Vazquez CAN'T be traded to the Yankees.

Way to straddle the argument...

SMO
:rolleyes:
Sarcasm?

palehozenychicty
10-26-2008, 09:11 AM
The O's owner loves Roberts. He's not going anywhere, regardless of how many crappy prospects Hendry throws his way. If Angelos has a surprising and sudden change of heart, I doubt the Sox could compete with other teams' packages without including part of our young core.

I wonder if the Yankees would go for Vazquez as part of a package for Cano... They're always looking for experienced arms, and aren't put off by high salaries, or even recent performance.


Vazquez barely started in the second half of 2004 because he completely lost his mechanics. He was also the culprit for their Game 7 meltdown in the 2004 LCS. He will NEVER play for the pinstripes again.

slavko
10-26-2008, 09:24 AM
None of the above or Getz or a KW surprise. Do we ever develop our own players? It helps that 2B is a position where we're unlikely to get another sloth or we might wind up with one.

palehozenychicty
10-26-2008, 09:29 AM
If they can't get Roberts, then see what Getz can do in ST. He may be the answer, and it seems that KW likes his spirit. If he needs more time, then find someone through Rule 5 or on the waiver wire. None of those other guys are worth the cost. Somebody had the nerve to mention Castillo?! He's kind of finished. Manuel barely played him down the stretch when healthy.

Tragg
10-26-2008, 08:16 PM
I'd rather Getz for virtually nothing than most of these assorted rents, high salary players and stiffs.
Speaking of stiffs, Grudzielanek would fit in well - another swing at everything hitter with no power.

FedEx227
10-26-2008, 08:46 PM
I like Grudz for a few reasons.

1- Orlando Hudson apparently was asking for around 13-15 million annually....LATE

2- Grudz is a veteran who could play second for a couple years while Beckham matures or somebody in the system steps up.

3- he would provide a veteran/grinder presence and could teach Getz a lot as they are kind of the same mold: not flashy

4- He would be a nice number two hitter. If we could trade for Figgins, I wouldn't mind having Grudz hit after him to set up for TCQ & Co.

:(::(: ....Wow.

khan
10-27-2008, 09:04 AM
Whichever one of these 2nd basemen that played football. That's who KW will sign, in his never-ending quest to live his baseball dreams vicariously through others.

gr8mexico
10-27-2008, 09:14 AM
Vazquez barely started in the second half of 2004 because he completely lost his mechanics. He was also the culprit for their Game 7 meltdown in the 2004 LCS. He will NEVER play for the pinstripes again.
About 2 months ago Brian Cashman talked about how he regreted trading Javier Vazquez. I think if the Sox do make him available the Yankees would be interested in him.

khan
10-27-2008, 09:21 AM
About 2 months ago Brian Cashman talked about how he regreted trading Javier Vazquez. I think if the Sox do make him available the Yankees would be interested in him.

Yes, trading a SP in a day and age where pieces of **** like Carl Pavano made $11M/year is EXACTLY what KW should do. With only 4 MLB-vetted SPs currently in the 40 man roster, why not also trade Floyd or Danks, while we're at it?

esbrechtel
10-27-2008, 09:23 AM
Who fills Javier's spot in the rotation if we trade him? I know he played horrible for us down the stretch but realistically we already have only 3 set starters (Buehrle, Danks, Floyd) if you remove Javy as well then we have 2 empty spots in our rotation. I do not like that AT ALL.

ChiSoxFan81
10-27-2008, 11:24 AM
Alexei Ramirez.

Exactly.

He was good there this year. I know his "regular" position is SS, but why move him if isn't necessary? If we can sign a FA 2B, then sure, move him over. But if we can plug in Uribe or another FA at SS, then there shouldn't be a big rush to move him.

Lukin13
10-27-2008, 11:36 AM
Why is everyone so anxious to trade away our strengths?

Watch us start the season with only three solid starters (which is a stretch considering how young Gavin and John are) and see what happens in '09. The same people trying to deal Javy will be crying for KW to sign some veteran starting pitching for the 2010 season.

Javy is a solid #4, and if Kenny makes a move for a starter, Javy is a damn good #5. He is slightly overpaid considering his '08 performance, but Vazquez is healthy and it would be a grave mistake to deal him for a non-superstar infielder. The options out there that will be looking for similar money to Javy are either: older, an injury risk, or just plain not as good as Javy. I imagine half of MLB would love to acquire Vazquez.

munchman33
10-27-2008, 12:23 PM
Why is everyone so anxious to trade away our strengths?

Watch us start the season with only three solid starters (which is a stretch considering how young Gavin and John are) and see what happens in '09. The same people trying to deal Javy will be crying for KW to sign some veteran starting pitching for the 2010 season.

Javy is a solid #4, and if Kenny makes a move for a starter, Javy is a damn good #5. He is slightly overpaid considering his '08 performance, but Vazquez is healthy and it would be a grave mistake to deal him for a non-superstar infielder. The options out there that will be looking for similar money to Javy are either: older, an injury risk, or just plain not as good as Javy. I imagine half of MLB would love to acquire Vazquez.

Javy is a decent #5 on a good team and a #2 on a bad team. Using the word "solid" gives the illusion that he gets the job done. On this team, Javy cannot get the job done.

If we keep Vazquez and don't acquire another starter, we're very likely going into '09 with only three solid starters.

russ99
10-27-2008, 01:55 PM
Javy is a decent #5 on a good team and a #2 on a bad team. Using the word "solid" gives the illusion that he gets the job done. On this team, Javy cannot get the job done.

If we keep Vazquez and don't acquire another starter, we're very likely going into '09 with only three solid starters.

Well, it fits Kenny's profile. When players wear out their welcome like Javy did at the end of this season, they often end up somewhere else.

We'd certainly get another starter beforehand, as Kenny usually deals in strength, and having only 3 proven healthy starters would cause the other GMs and remaining FA's agents to circle like vultures.

I'm not advocating Javy being traded, I still like him as a Sox starter regardless of the drama this season, I'm just saying that don't be surprised if he's not with the Sox for Spring Training. And I'm advocating Kenny to get am experienced starter this season (not in 2010) since I don't trust Richard and Broadway, and who knows if Contreras can come back from his injury.

munchman33
10-27-2008, 02:00 PM
Well, it fits Kenny's profile. When players wear out their welcome like Javy did at the end of this season, they often end up somewhere else.

We'd certainly get another starter beforehand, as Kenny usually deals in strength, and having only 3 proven healthy starters would cause the other GMs and remaining FA's agents to circle like vultures.

I'm not advocating Javy being traded, I still like him as a Sox starter regardless of the drama this season, I'm just saying that don't be surprised if he's not with the Sox for Spring Training. And I'm advocating Kenny to get am experienced starter this season (not in 2010) since I don't trust Richard and Broadway, and who knows if Contreras can come back from his injury.

I agree. Javy could be back. But I don't think it's a given, and you know Kenny's looking to replace him. Keeping Javy is secondary to getting another starter, trading him, and letting the kids and Contreras battle for #5.

whitesox901
10-27-2008, 04:15 PM
Javy Vazquez will be back people at the #4 slot in 09'. The only way I see him on the move is if some NL team really needs pitching.

gr8mexico
10-27-2008, 04:38 PM
Yes, trading a SP in a day and age where pieces of **** like Carl Pavano made $11M/year is EXACTLY what KW should do. With only 4 MLB-vetted SPs currently in the 40 man roster, why not also trade Floyd or Danks, while we're at it?
First I never said they should trade him . What I said was the Yankees still regret letting Vazquez go. Someone earlier said that the Yankee wouldn't want him anymore and that was wrong

munchman33
10-27-2008, 05:11 PM
Javy Vazquez will be back people at the #4 slot in 09'. The only way I see him on the move is if some NL team really needs pitching.

Well, with only 16 of those I don't think it's realistic then.

khan
10-28-2008, 10:27 AM
First I never said they should trade him . What I said was the Yankees still regret letting Vazquez go. Someone earlier said that the Yankee wouldn't want him anymore and that was wrong

It sure didn't read that way:

I think if the Sox do make him available the Yankees would be interested in him.

In any case, I'm just tired of dumbasses on these boards suggesting that the SOX should "get rid of Javy Vazquez." I merely thought that you were one of those dumbasses. If you are not, I apologize.

Having said that, yes, we're ALL disappointed in Javy's failures in the second half. We'd ALL like for Javy to be better at baseball than he currently is right now. We'd ALL like for him to have more intestinal fortitude.

Alas, he does not. But in a day and age when clear former steroid cheater/craptacular RP Eric Gagne makes $10M/year, when worthless pieces of **** like Carl Pavano makes ~$11M/year and Carlos Silva makes $12M/year, and Barry Zito can make ~$15M/year, Javy Vazquez is pretty close to market value. In a day and age where human cancers like Boras work to get teams to overpay for mediocrity, Javy Vazquez is not a bad bargain.

Vazquez isn't going anywhere, nor should he. That is, unless some other GM stupidly overpays for him in trade. This club [just as ALL clubs in MLB] needs a minimum of 5 SPs, and preferably 6 to 7 SP-capable/healthy/MLB-vetted arms. As I type this, the club [including Vazquez] has but 4 such players.

kittle42
10-28-2008, 11:16 AM
Having said that, yes, we're ALL disappointed in Javy's failures in the second half. We'd ALL like for Javy to be better at baseball than he currently is right now. We'd ALL like for him to have more intestinal fortitude.

Alas, he does not. But in a day and age when clear former steroid cheater/craptacular RP Eric Gagne makes $10M/year, when worthless pieces of **** like Carl Pavano makes ~$11M/year and Carlos Silva makes $12M/year, and Barry Zito can make ~$15M/year, Javy Vazquez is pretty close to market value. In a day and age where human cancers like Boras work to get teams to overpay for mediocrity, Javy Vazquez is not a bad bargain.

Vazquez isn't going anywhere, nor should he. That is, unless some other GM stupidly overpays for him in trade. This club [just as ALL clubs in MLB] needs a minimum of 5 SPs, and preferably 6 to 7 SP-capable/healthy/MLB-vetted arms. As I type this, the club [including Vazquez] has but 4 such players.

Excellent summation. No one endorsing the dumping of Vazquez has come up with anything close to combating the above.

munchman33
10-28-2008, 11:21 AM
Excellent summation. No one endorsing the dumping of Vazquez has come up with anything close to combating the above.

10 worse contracts for starting pitchers across MLB doesn't make Vazquez's deal good. You're looking at the extreme and considering it the norm.

There are a lot more better pitchers than Javy making less than him than there are worse pitchers making more than him.

guillensdisciple
10-28-2008, 11:23 AM
In a perfect world Roberts would go to the Sox, but I have a feeling Hudson or Castilla might land in that spot this year. There is nothing wrong with Hudson, I just don't like his injury history and Castillo has lost a good amount of speed.

khan
10-28-2008, 11:28 AM
10 worse contracts for starting pitchers across MLB doesn't make Vazquez's deal good. You're looking at the extreme and considering it the norm.
Sure. But this is BEFORE we consider what Free Agency after 2008/going into 2009 will do to SP salaries. Vazquez is currently the 18th-highest paid pitcher in MLB. But after assclowns like Boras get done with Free Agency, Vazquez will likely be closer to the ~30th highest paid pitcher in 2009 in MLB.


There are a lot more better pitchers than Javy making less than him than there are worse pitchers making more than him.
Sure. But what is the replacement cost for a 5th starter like Vazquez? Doubtlessly higher than merely his ~$11.5M/year. This, when you consider the cost of acquisition of a new pitcher and the opportunity loss of trading away other pieces/opportunity loss of filling other holes in the team.

And how would you propose the SOX acquire these "better pitchers making less than Javy," WHILE filling the other holes in the team AND improving the team's balance AND improving the depth at key positions AND staying within KW's budget AND not depleting the already-depleted farm system AND keeping the team competitive in 2009 and beyond?

NLaloosh
10-28-2008, 11:48 AM
In a perfect world Roberts would go to the Sox, but I have a feeling Hudson or Castilla might land in that spot this year. There is nothing wrong with Hudson, I just don't like his injury history and Castillo has lost a good amount of speed.

Castillo. LOL. That's funny!

I'll bet Kenny could offer MacDougal and Contreras and get back Castillo and a prospect.

munchman33
10-28-2008, 11:49 AM
Sure. But this is BEFORE we consider what Free Agency after 2008/going into 2009 will do to SP salaries. Vazquez is currently the 18th-highest paid pitcher in MLB. But after assclowns like Boras get done with Free Agency, Vazquez will likely be closer to the ~30th highest paid pitcher in 2009 in MLB.



Sure. But what is the replacement cost for a 5th starter like Vazquez? Doubtlessly higher than merely his ~$11.5M/year. This, when you consider the cost of acquisition of a new pitcher and the opportunity loss of trading away other pieces/opportunity loss of filling other holes in the team.

And how would you propose the SOX acquire these "better pitchers making less than Javy," WHILE filling the other holes in the team AND improving the team's balance AND improving the depth at key positions AND staying within KW's budget AND not depleting the already-depleted farm system AND keeping the team competitive in 2009 and beyond?

This isn't about that, it's about Vazquez's real value. But if you want to look at it like that, then imagine Javy was off the books. With that money and a little more, we could make a run at a better FA starter, like Lowe. Or trade for a starter and take on salary to alleviate cost on prospects.

Make no mistake about it, if Javy's here next year, it won't be because Kenny thought he was the answer. It's because he's not that good, and he's not worth his contract.

khan
10-28-2008, 12:09 PM
This isn't about that, it's about Vazquez's real value.
Sure. And its about whether or not Zito is "REALLY" worth $15M/yr [and going up, BTW].
And its about whether or not Carlos Silva is "REALLY" worth $12M/year.
And so on.

Unfortunately, whether we like it or not, Vazquez's deal is OK. It is neither a terrible nor a poor one for the SOX.

But if you want to look at it like that, then imagine Javy was off the books.
OK. I'm imagining the White Sox with only 3 MLB-vetted arms, of which 2 just MIGHT BE "One Year Wonders." I've got it! We're back to being the 2001 - 2004 versions, with insufficient pitching to win anything! Huzzah!!


With that money and a little more, we could make a run at a better FA starter, like Lowe.
Lowe sucked in the big boy league, the AL. I'm not convinced that he doesn't come back to the AL, and resume crapping his pants.

Or trade for a starter and take on salary to alleviate cost on prospects.
With what? Hopes and prayers? Exactly how many prospects do you want to give up to fill Vazquez's spot, PLUS the vacated spot of Contreras, PLUS have enough depth in the starting rotation in case of injuries in 2009?

And what about the holes at CF, 2B/SS, and 3B? Fill THOSE holes, PLUS Vazquez's spot, PLUS Contreras' spot with MORE hopes and prayers? How do we find a leadoff man? A hitter for the 2nd spot in the lineup? How do we find a 2nd lefty in the 'pen? How about a backup catcher? Do we just ask Chairman Jerry to open up the checkbook to the tune of $200M?

Make no mistake about it, if Javy's here next year, it won't be because Kenny thought he was the answer. It's because he's not that good, and he's not worth his contract.
And he isn't as bad as you suggest he is, either. In today's market, Vazquez is "OK."

areilly
10-28-2008, 12:15 PM
Vazquez barely started in the second half of 2004 because he completely lost his mechanics. He was also the culprit for their Game 7 meltdown in the 2004 LCS. He will NEVER play for the pinstripes again.

I was going to say, that Johnny Damon grand slam has to still sting at least a little - for both Vazquez and the Yankees.

areilly
10-28-2008, 12:21 PM
About 2 months ago Brian Cashman talked about how he regreted trading Javier Vazquez. I think if the Sox do make him available the Yankees would be interested in him.

I'm not sure Cashman ever said that, but if he did I imagine it would have less to do with Javy than it did with how Randy Johnson didn't work out the way the Yankees would have liked.

The NY Times ran a good op-ed piece (http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/the-lesson-of-javier-vazquez/) on this last month.

munchman33
10-28-2008, 12:40 PM
Sure. And its about whether or not Zito is "REALLY" worth $15M/yr [and going up, BTW].
And its about whether or not Carlos Silva is "REALLY" worth $12M/year.
And so on.

Unfortunately, whether we like it or not, Vazquez's deal is OK. It is neither a terrible nor a poor one for the SOX.


OK. I'm imagining the White Sox with only 3 MLB-vetted arms, of which 2 just MIGHT BE "One Year Wonders." I've got it! We're back to being the 2001 - 2004 versions, with insufficient pitching to win anything! Huzzah!!



Lowe sucked in the big boy league, the AL. I'm not convinced that he doesn't come back to the AL, and resume crapping his pants.


With what? Hopes and prayers? Exactly how many prospects do you want to give up to fill Vazquez's spot, PLUS the vacated spot of Contreras, PLUS have enough depth in the starting rotation in case of injuries in 2009?

And what about the holes at CF, 2B/SS, and 3B? Fill THOSE holes, PLUS Vazquez's spot, PLUS Contreras' spot with MORE hopes and prayers? How do we find a leadoff man? A hitter for the 2nd spot in the lineup? How do we find a 2nd lefty in the 'pen? How about a backup catcher? Do we just ask Chairman Jerry to open up the checkbook to the tune of $200M?


And he isn't as bad as you suggest he is, either. In today's market, Vazquez is "OK."

Javy is a fifth starter making a second or third starters money. If you don't agree with that, you're just plain wrong. If you don't see why that's a problem for a team with close to a maxed out budget, you're just plain wrong. And if you think Javy's better than Derrick Lowe, you're insane.

We're going into next year with 4 starters and a rookie, probably Clayton. That's just the position we're in, given the other holes to fill. The only question is whether that #4 guy is Javy. I don't think it will be. He isn't worth his salary and he's worn out his welcome. Kenny will probably dump him for nothing and sign someone. The names won't be flashy, and lots of people will complain. It'll likely be a reclaimation project, knowing Kenny. But the truth is the production Javy gave us last year won't be tough to top. He had an ERA near 5 and came close to losing 20 games. I'd wager on Kenny picking up someone who could do better.

doublem23
10-28-2008, 12:55 PM
Well, with only 16 of those I don't think it's realistic then.

:rolling:

KW's not stupid, trading Vazquez now means we go into the season with both Broadway and Richard in the rotation, and while that formula worked last year, neither of those guys have the pedigree that Floyd and Danks brought.

I don't know why the OP gave up on Getz so easily; I know Kenny has drooled over Orlando Hudson for a while, but if he can't rope him in, I think Getz would have the inside track to start at 2B next April.

Forget Roberts, too, BTW... First off we all know Angelos won't let him be traded and second, speed is about to become the new "power;" what all teams think they have to have to win and will be willing to drastically overpay to get it.

Craig Grebeck
10-28-2008, 12:58 PM
Haha. Yes, Vazquez was "close" to a 5 ERA. Apparently 4.67 is considered close these days. And 16 losses is "close" to twenty. You never cease to amaze me.

kittle42
10-28-2008, 01:13 PM
Haha. Yes, Vazquez was "close" to a 5 ERA. Apparently 4.67 is considered close these days. And 16 losses is "close" to twenty. You never cease to amaze me.

The blind hatred of Vazquez around here is understandable given his failures in the waning weeks and months of the Sox 2008 season, but I still have yet to see a compelling argument as to why he shouldn't be on this team next season if he is a 4th or 5th starter at his current salary. And no, "lack of balls" does not do it for me.

kittle42
10-28-2008, 01:13 PM
Haha. Yes, Vazquez was "close" to a 5 ERA. Apparently 4.67 is considered close these days. And 16 losses is "close" to twenty. You never cease to amaze me.

I was too lazy to look it up, but I had a feeling he was way off.

palehozenychicty
10-28-2008, 01:18 PM
:rolling:

KW's not stupid, trading Vazquez now means we go into the season with both Broadway and Richard in the rotation, and while that formula worked last year, neither of those guys have the pedigree that Floyd and Danks brought.

I don't know why the OP gave up on Getz so easily; I know Kenny has drooled over Orlando Hudson for a while, but if he can't rope him in, I think Getz would have the inside track to start at 2B next April.

Forget Roberts, too, BTW... First off we all know Angelos won't let him be traded and second, speed is about to become the new "power;" what all teams think they have to have to win and will be willing to drastically overpay to get it.


I think Getz is going to get a fair shot. People here love Hudson, but his durability is a serious question. I don't like wrists problems on a baseball player, especially for someone whose strength is making contact towards the gaps and on the line.

We may sign him, and then he crumbles, meaning that Getz will get the playing time regardless.

I also don't see Roberts getting moved for little beans. The game is slowly reverting to the 80s and early 90s, where speed and fundamental execution reigned supreme.

munchman33
10-28-2008, 01:19 PM
Haha. Yes, Vazquez was "close" to a 5 ERA. Apparently 4.67 is considered close these days. And 16 losses is "close" to twenty. You never cease to amaze me.

It isn't close? What do you consider close? He's a lot closer to a 5 era than a 4 era. And he's closer to 20 losses than 10. So if you want to argue semantics, there you go. The fact remains Javy was one of the worst starters in baseball last year.

The blind hatred of Vazquez around here is understandable given his failures in the waning weeks and months of the Sox 2008 season, but I still have yet to see a compelling argument as to why he shouldn't be on this team next season if he is a 4th or 5th starter at his current salary. And no, "lack of balls" does not do it for me.

Javy's numbers are right there with 5th starters in the league. But his salary is not. And we don't have a #4. You don't see the problem there? You don't see why it's important he's gone?

thedudeabides
10-28-2008, 01:34 PM
It isn't close? What do you consider close? He's a lot closer to a 5 era than a 4 era. And he's closer to 20 losses than 10. So if you want to argue semantics, there you go. The fact remains Javy was one of the worst starters in baseball last year.



Javy's numbers are right there with 5th starters in the league. But his salary is not. And we don't have a #4. You don't see the problem there? You don't see why it's important he's gone?

Nope, not without a suitable replacement. But, I'm sure that won't stop you from hijacking every other thread on this site to scream about it.

munchman33
10-28-2008, 01:36 PM
Nope, not without a suitable replacement. But, I'm sure that won't stop you from hijacking every other thread on this site to scream about it.

Well, Ozzie wants him gone. And I can't remember Kenny keeping a guy Ozzie so clearly doesn't want. So argue about it all you want. Javy's gone come December.

Suitable replacement? LOL...there's tons.

Lukin13
10-28-2008, 01:43 PM
And if you think Javy's better than Derrick Lowe, you're insane.



I am a Derek Lowe fan, especially considering he keeps the ball down.

BUT

I would much, much rather be on the hook for:

3yr/34mil with a 32 year old Javy

than

4yrs/50mil with a 36 year old Lowe

thedudeabides
10-28-2008, 01:46 PM
Well, Ozzie wants him gone. And I can't remember Kenny keeping a guy Ozzie so clearly doesn't want. So argue about it all you want. Javy's gone come December.

Suitable replacement? LOL...there's tons.

I was more arguing how you love to hijack threads to constantly beat your point in the ground over and over again, but now that I know he is officially gone in December, I guess I don't have to worry about it.

munchman33
10-28-2008, 01:48 PM
I was more arguing how you love to hijack threads to constantly beat your point in the ground over and over again, but now that I know he is officially gone in December, I guess I don't have to worry about it.

I didn't bring it up, someone else brought up trading Javy, and all the fanboys shouted out that it was impossible and foolish.

kittle42
10-28-2008, 01:48 PM
Well, Ozzie wants him gone. And I can't remember Kenny keeping a guy Ozzie so clearly doesn't want. So argue about it all you want. Javy's gone come December.

Suitable replacement? LOL...there's tons.

munch, you are somehow managing to make me like Javier Vazquez. I didn't think that was possible.

munchman33
10-28-2008, 01:49 PM
I am a Derek Lowe fan, especially considering he keeps the ball down.

BUT

I would much, much rather be on the hook for:

3yr/34mil with a 32 year old Javy

than

4yrs/50mil with a 36 year old Lowe

I'd rather spend more money this year and have a legitamate chance at a World Championship...but I guess to each his own. :dunno:

kobo
10-28-2008, 02:12 PM
Javy's numbers are right there with 5th starters in the league. But his salary is not. And we don't have a #4. You don't see the problem there? You don't see why it's important he's gone?
If this is a problem for the White Sox then why would some other team trade for Javy? And if a guy like Kyle Lohse can get a 4 year, $41 million deal then yes, Javy's deal is fair right now. Is Lohse a #2 or #3? I don't think so.

Craig Grebeck
10-28-2008, 02:17 PM
Javier Vazquez was 2% below average while throwing over 200 innings. Let me know how that makes him one of the worst pitchers in baseball.

munchman33
10-28-2008, 02:20 PM
Javier Vazquez was 2% below average while throwing over 200 innings. Let me know how that makes him one of the worst pitchers in baseball.

He's one of the worst starters to have a job all year. Because the bulk of people you're talking about did not. Whereas Javy's contract forces him into the rotation all year. How did Javy do compared to starters making 30 or more starts? I guarantee there aren't many (if there isn't none) that had a worse year.

munchman33
10-28-2008, 02:23 PM
If this is a problem for the White Sox then why would some other team trade for Javy? And if a guy like Kyle Lohse can get a 4 year, $41 million deal then yes, Javy's deal is fair right now. Is Lohse a #2 or #3? I don't think so.

Lohse sure looked better than Javy this year, didn't he?

Once again, exceptions are not the rule. Javy's got a deal that's probably slightly higher than he'd get as a free agent. But that doesn't mean he's worth it. And there are a number of reclaimation projects who can be just as effective. Not to mention young players in other organizations that would cost less.

It's all about what someone's worth to an organization. Lohse is worth that to the Cards, who can't spend more but need him as a #3. We can afford to have a number four make Javy's salary. But Javy doesn't fill that role. Meaning we either need to replace him and his salary with a #4, or trade for a young stud with little salary that can fill that part of the rotation, keepining Javy at 5.

Guess which one is more likely?

Craig Grebeck
10-28-2008, 02:27 PM
If you can't wrap your head around the idea that Javy making 30 starts in and of itself is valuable, then I'm not going to bother explaining it to you.

Also of note, through your arbitrary "30 start" threshold, Javy's ERA was an above average 4.13! So for this completely pulled out of your ass frame of time, Javy was very good.

Edit: If Kyle Lohse is a no. 3, Javy damn sure is not a no. 4.

kobo
10-28-2008, 02:28 PM
Lohse sure looked better than Javy this year, didn't he?

Once again, exceptions are not the rule. Javy's got a deal that's probably slightly higher than he'd get as a free agent. But that doesn't mean he's worth it. And there are a number of reclaimation projects who can be just as effective. Not to mention young players in other organizations that would cost less.

It's all about what someone's worth to an organization. Lohse is worth that to the Cards, who can't spend more but need him as a #3. We can afford to have a number four make Javy's salary. But Javy doesn't fill that role. Meaning we either need to replace him and his salary with a #4, or trade for a young stud with little salary that can fill that part of the rotation, keepining Javy at 5.

Guess which one is more likely?
I know which is more likely, but you haven't answered the question. If Javy and his salary are a problem for the White Sox then why would some other team trade for him and his salary based off his performance this past season? Your posts keep insinuating that the Sox need to trade Javy and that it will be easy to do so, and I'm not so sure about that.

khan
10-28-2008, 02:30 PM
Javy is a fifth starter making a second or third starters money.
I don't disagree with this, though I don't necessarily agree, either. However, by the time we start Spring Training, Javy's contract will be more in-line with a 3rd or 4th starter's money.

At the same time, there are only Vazquez and Buehrle as fully-vetted MLB arms. I believe in the promise of Danks and Floyd, but they can just as easily be one year wonders as they can be cornerstones of the starting rotation for years to come.

Bear all of this in mind with the fact that a club MINIMALLY needs 5 SPs, and preferably 6 or 7 SP-capable arms.


And if you think Javy's better than Derrick Lowe, you're insane.
At 36 years old, Derek Lowe did very nice for himself in the AAAA NL west. He also was not very good [4 YEARS AGO] the last time he pitched in the AL. I believe that Derek Lowe, at his age, is not as likely as Vazquez to deliver 200 IP and a <1.4 WHIP in the big boy league.


We're going into next year with 4 starters and a rookie, probably Clayton. That's just the position we're in, given the other holes to fill.
Perhaps. I'd rather go with Vazquez as the 4th, another cheap vet as the 5th, and Clayton in the pen.

The only question is whether that #4 guy is Javy. I don't think it will be. He isn't worth his salary and he's worn out his welcome.
Link? Besides, you're wind-socking here. Earlier, you said Javy WOULD be back in '09. So who you crappin'?

Kenny will probably dump him for nothing and sign someone.
Link?

He had an ERA near 5 and came close to losing 20 games.
You've just chosen the two most worthless metrics to describe pitchers.

I'd wager on Kenny picking up someone who could do better.
Didn't you just post that Kenny will pick up a reclaimation project? You're wind-socking, and your bias against Vazquez is clouding your judgement.

munchman33
10-28-2008, 02:32 PM
I know which is more likely, but you haven't answered the question. If Javy and his salary are a problem for the White Sox then why would some other team trade for him and his salary based off his performance this past season? Your posts keep insinuating that the Sox need to trade Javy and that it will be easy to do so, and I'm not so sure about that.

You're right, it won't be easy. We'd have to find a team he fit well on, something in the NL. Like the Cards or the Nationals. Maybe the Astros. We'd either have to give some salary or take low level prospects.

esbrechtel
10-28-2008, 02:34 PM
I am not an advocate for trading Javy...but the Brewers are going to need starters....

munchman33
10-28-2008, 02:37 PM
I don't disagree with this, though I don't necessarily agree, either. However, by the time we start Spring Training, Javy's contract will be more in-line with a 3rd or 4th starter's money.

At the same time, there are only Vazquez and Buehrle as fully-vetted MLB arms. I believe in the promise of Danks and Floyd, but they can just as easily be one year wonders as they can be cornerstones of the starting rotation for years to come.

Bear all of this in mind with the fact that a club MINIMALLY needs 5 SPs, and preferably 6 or 7 SP-capable arms.



At 36 years old, Derek Lowe did very nice for himself in the AAAA NL west. He also was not very good [4 YEARS AGO] the last time he pitched in the AL. I believe that Derek Lowe, at his age, is not as likely as Vazquez to deliver 200 IP and a <1.4 WHIP in the big boy league.



Perhaps. I'd rather go with Vazquez as the 4th, another cheap vet as the 5th, and Clayton in the pen.


Link? Besides, you're wind-socking here. Earlier, you said Javy WOULD be back in '09. So who you crappin'?


Link?


You've just chosen the two most worthless metrics to describe pitchers.


Didn't you just post that Kenny will pick up a reclaimation project? You're wind-socking, and your bias against Vazquez is clouding your judgement.


Um..okay. In your answer to "Link," that's my speculation. That's kind of what everyone's doing here, right?

Derrick Lowe is one of the best pitchers in baseball. His stuff is incredible, he's a winner, and he's just the type of pitcher who can pitch in our park.

Lots of people would argue that wins and era are the only things that matter when talking about a pitcher. Spare me the sabremetric bull****. You are what you do, not what you should have done.

I didn't think Javy's salary was tradeable before. Opinions change over time with circumstance.

khan
10-28-2008, 02:38 PM
Lohse sure looked better than Javy this year, didn't he?
Again, in the AAAA National League.

Once again, exceptions are not the rule. Javy's got a deal that's probably slightly higher than he'd get as a free agent.
You're wrong. His deal is close to what he'd get as a FA.

Again, if Carlos Silva can get $12M/year, so can Vazquez. And probably MORE than $12M/year, since Silva committed his robbery LAST offseason.

Meaning we either need to replace him and his salary with a #4, or trade for a young stud with little salary that can fill that part of the rotation, keepining Javy at 5.
Exactly HOW do propose this happens? You throw around conjecture like this, but you've proposed nothing more than your own dislike of Vazquez.

khan
10-28-2008, 02:43 PM
Um..okay. In your answer to "Link," that's my speculation.
No offense, but thank you for finally admitting that you're full of ****.

Derrick Lowe is one of the best pitchers in baseball. His stuff is incredible, he's a winner, and he's just the type of pitcher who can pitch in our park.
Wow. Do you actually believe what you just wrote here?

Lots of people would argue that wins and era are the only things that matter when talking about a pitcher.
And even MORE people KNOW that Wins and so-called "Earned" RA are subject to so many things outside a pitcher's control as to be virtually useless in evaluating a pitcher.

I didn't think Javy's salary was tradeable before. Opinions change over time with circumstance.
What, did the wind blow a different direction again?

kittle42
10-28-2008, 02:44 PM
Exactly HOW do propose this happens? You throw around conjecture like this, but you've proposed nothing more than your own dislike of Vazquez.

I really think munch and many of the others in the dump Vazquez camp would (hypotetically) be perfectly happy with another pitcher who put up similar numbers at a similar salary as long as his name wasn't Javier Vazquez.

doublem23
10-28-2008, 02:50 PM
I really think munch and many of the others in the dump Vazquez camp would (hypotetically) be perfectly happy with another pitcher who put up similar numbers at a similar salary as long as his name wasn't Javier Vazquez.

He should just get his name legally changed then.

Javier Ocho Cinco, anyone?

Nellie_Fox
10-28-2008, 02:54 PM
He should just get his name legally changed then.

Javier Ocho Cinco, anyone?Shouldn't it be Javier Tres Tres?

doublem23
10-28-2008, 02:56 PM
Shouldn't it be Javier Tres Tres?

It doesn't "pop." You need to think about marketability when choosing a new name.

FedEx227
10-28-2008, 03:06 PM
Lots of people would argue that wins and era are the only things that matter when talking about a pitcher. Spare me the sabremetric bull****. You are what you do, not what you should have done.

And those people are morons.

areilly
10-28-2008, 03:23 PM
The blind hatred of Vazquez around here is understandable given his failures in the waning weeks and months of the Sox 2008 season, but I still have yet to see a compelling argument as to why he shouldn't be on this team next season if he is a 4th or 5th starter at his current salary. And no, "lack of balls" does not do it for me.

The biggest argument against keeping him is that his performance will run exactly counter to what the Sox do.

It's been said around here before but worth repeating: every season he's ever had, possibly every single game he's ever had, has been the exact opposite of the team's position. Compare him down the stretch each year the Sox have had him. Look what happened in New York. Or Montreal.

He's an ace when there's no reason for him to be and a demotion waiting to happen when his team is up against the wall. If the Sox do well in 2009, Javier Vazquez will not. And vice versa. THAT is why you get rid of him.

guillensdisciple
10-28-2008, 03:24 PM
:rolling:

KW's not stupid, trading Vazquez now means we go into the season with both Broadway and Richard in the rotation, and while that formula worked last year, neither of those guys have the pedigree that Floyd and Danks brought.

I don't know why the OP gave up on Getz so easily; I know Kenny has drooled over Orlando Hudson for a while, but if he can't rope him in, I think Getz would have the inside track to start at 2B next April.

Forget Roberts, too, BTW... First off we all know Angelos won't let him be traded and second, speed is about to become the new "power;" what all teams think they have to have to win and will be willing to drastically overpay to get it.

Broadway was a first round draft pick, I think that is solid pedigree. What things did we see in Danks and Floyd other then the fact that they were both first round picks and good talents.

Broadway is still a good talent, perhaps he needs a little bit more development.

doublem23
10-28-2008, 03:36 PM
Broadway was a first round draft pick, I think that is solid pedigree. What things did we see in Danks and Floyd other then the fact that they were both first round picks and good talents.

Broadway is still a good talent, perhaps he needs a little bit more development.

Not all 1st round picks are the same; Broadway was a late 1st round pick during the time when the Sox were notorious for selecting "safer, lower ceiling-type guys," while Floyd and Danks were both Top 10 overall picks (maybe Top 5, I'm too lazy to look it up). I don't know about Danks, but there was a time when Gavin Floyd was considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.

I don't dislike Broadway, but he's clearly not in the same class as Gavin or John are. Both of them look like they could be top-of-the line pitchers on very good staffs, while Lance looks like at best he could be a back-end guy on for a good team. He just doesn't have the same kind of stuff that either one of them do.

guillensdisciple
10-28-2008, 03:46 PM
Not all 1st round picks are the same; Broadway was a late 1st round pick during the time when the Sox were notorious for selecting "safer, lower ceiling-type guys," while Floyd and Danks were both Top 10 overall picks (maybe Top 5, I'm too lazy to look it up). I don't know about Danks, but there was a time when Gavin Floyd was considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.

I don't dislike Broadway, but he's clearly not in the same class as Gavin or John are. Both of them look like they could be top-of-the line pitchers on very good staffs, while Lance looks like at best he could be a back-end guy on for a good team. He just doesn't have the same kind of stuff that either one of them do.

He doesn't have a great fast ball (93 at highest), but he can be a Sonnanstine type because he has some filthy pitches in his arsenal. If he hits his spots I believe he will have a very solid major league career.

FedEx227
10-28-2008, 03:46 PM
Not all 1st round picks are the same; Broadway was a late 1st round pick during the time when the Sox were notorious for selecting "safer, lower ceiling-type guys," while Floyd and Danks were both Top 10 overall picks (maybe Top 5, I'm too lazy to look it up). I don't know about Danks, but there was a time when Gavin Floyd was considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.

I don't dislike Broadway, but he's clearly not in the same class as Gavin or John are. Both of them look like they could be top-of-the line pitchers on very good staffs, while Lance looks like at best he could be a back-end guy on for a good team. He just doesn't have the same kind of stuff that either one of them do.

Exactly. Look at the differences.

Here's Danks' minor league ranks:
2004 - 80th ranked Major League prospect
2004 - 2nd ranked organizational prospect for Texas Rangers
2005 - 59th ranked Major League prospect
2005 - 2nd ranked organizational prospect for Texas Rangers
2006 - 59th ranked Major League prospect
2006 - 2nd ranked organizational prospect for Texas Rangers
2007 - 1st ranked organizational prospect for Texas Rangers
2007 - 56th ranked Major League prospect

Floyd's minor league ranks:
2004 - 80th ranked Major League prospect
2004 - 2nd ranked organizational prospect for Texas Rangers
2005 - 59th ranked Major League prospect
2005 - 2nd ranked organizational prospect for Texas Rangers
2006 - 59th ranked Major League prospect
2006 - 2nd ranked organizational prospect for Texas Rangers
2007 - 1st ranked organizational prospect for Texas Rangers
2007 - 56th ranked Major League prospect

Lance Broadway's minor league ranks:
2006 - 8th ranked organizational prospect for Chicago White Sox
2007 - 3rd ranked organizational prospect for Chicago White Sox
2008 - 2nd ranked organizational prospect for Chicago White Sox

thedudeabides
10-28-2008, 04:00 PM
Maybe, this will steer this back to the originial point of the thread, but the Sox just signed Jayson Nix.

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10837562

Not much big league experience, but I believe he has some speed and may be in competition if a big name is not brought in.

doublem23
10-28-2008, 04:12 PM
He doesn't have a great fast ball (93 at highest), but he can be a Sonnanstine type because he has some filthy pitches in his arsenal. If he hits his spots I believe he will have a very solid major league career.

That would be fine if that's his ceiling, but that doesn't mean we should go into 2009 depending on him. The Sox depended on Gavin and John going into 2008, they were both basically handed a spot in the rotation when KW traded Jon Garland. I'm willing to give Lance a fair shot at an open competition for the 5th starter spot in 2009, but I'm not willing to just annoint him a member of the starting 5 yet.

Personally, I believe Clayton Richard is a better pitching prospect than Broadway, but I don't exactly know what the Sox want to do with Richard yet, whether they're going to try and groom him for the rotation or the bullpen. Neither Richard or Broadway have the same credentials that Floyd or Danks did, and neither should be given a vote of confidence until they show what they can do.

btrain929
10-28-2008, 04:12 PM
Maybe, this will steer this back to the originial point of the thread, but the Sox just signed Jayson Nix.

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10837562

Not much big league experience, but I believe he has some speed and may be in competition if a big name is not brought in.

I think it could either be a lefty/righty platoon with Getz, or could be another somewhat young former minor league stud being brought in to push Getz for the starting job. That report says he was hit in the eye in China during the Olympics. I hope he's alright and has fully recovered....

BadBobbyJenks
10-31-2008, 12:19 AM
Alexei Ramirez.

I agree with this, but who is your SS next year then?