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View Full Version : Current players and their chances at the HOF


eastchicagosoxfan
10-23-2008, 10:32 AM
How many current players will end up enshrined at Cooperstown? Some guys are shoe-ins, while other guys are question marks. While someone may look like a lock now, by the end of his career, his stats might not be that impressive (see Dale Murphy). For my purposes, I only considered players with at least ten years in the bigs. So no Pujols or Buerhle or Ichiro. I also think the Hall will become more difficult to get into to over the next several years. So here's my take. I went team by team.

White Sox
Griffey is a lock.
Thome is a lock, but there will be arguements against him. He hasn't done well in MVP voting, and didn't lead the league in offensive catagories often. He was clean during the steriod age though too.

Twins have no one.
Tribe has no one.

Tigers
Ordonez will not get in. He'll be 35 next year, and won't have the numbers.
Sheffield. He was involved in the steriod scandal. He has the numbers. He has one year left on his contract. He needs one home run to get 500. He may not get a shot. I'm not sold on his credentials.

Angels
Vlad Guererro should make it. He'll be 33 next season, and should reach close to 3000 hits (over 2100 now) with over 500 homers (392 now), if he stays relatively healthy and ages okay. Of course if he doesn't make it past 35 in MLB, it could be interesting.

Texas has no one.

A'S. Frank Thomas is a lock.

Mariners have no one.

Tampa Bay has no one.

Boston has David Ortiz. He shouldn't make it, but the rabid Boston media will push hard. I don't expect him to age well.

Blue Jays have Halladay. Hell be 2 next year and is 131-66over his career. Can he get eight more years and average 15 wins per season? I think he has a decent shot. He won't get to 300 wins though.

Yankees

Jason Giambi might be the first guy to 500 home runs and not get in. Regardless, he's no Hall of Famer.

Arod is a lock.
Jeter is a lock, but he's aging terribly. He has over 2500 hits, and at 35 next season has a chance at 3000 if he can play regularly.

Ivan Rodriguez is a lock.

Mariano Rivera is a lock.

Johnny Damon will be 35 next year. he has 2270 hits. He has a slim chance at 3000. If he doesn't get to 3000, what separates him from Al Oliver or Bill Buckner? Probably not in.

Mike Mussina has 270 wins and will be 4o next season. I think he'll pitch at least one more year. He should get elected, regardless if he gets to 300 wins.

Andy Petite will have to pitch well after the age of 40. He's no go.

Orioles have no one.

Philly has no one.

Mets
Carlos Delgado is a guy I can't decide on. If he played in the 1970's he'd be a lock. He's got the numbers. He may not have the votes.

Carlos Beltran will be 32 next year and is on his way to a great career. Barring injury or some other event that negatively impacts his career, he should get elected. A lot can happen over the next few years. See Don Mattingly.

Pedro Martinez has twice as many wins as losses. He'll get in.

Billy Wagner?

Marlins have no one.

Braves
Chipper Jones is on his way.
Glavine and Smoltz are automatic.

Nationals have no one.

Cubs have Derek Lee. He's 32 and will be for most of next season. He has 1500 hits, and can reach 3000 if he stays healthy. Otherwise, he's a poor man's Steve Garvey.

Brewers have no one.

Astros

Miguel Tejada is tainted by steriods. He'll be 35 and looks to be on the downside of his career. He won't make it.

Carlos Lee will be 33 midway through next season. Will 2700+ hits and 500 home runs get him in? He will need to remain productive until he hits 40. He has a chance, maybe 30%?

Lance Berkman will be 33, and has similiar stats to Carlos Lee.

Cardinals

Troy Glaus's will not get elected.

Reds have no one.

Pirates have no one.

Dodgers
Greg Maddux is a lock.
Manny is also a lock.

Diamondbacks
Randy Johnson is a lock.

Colorado
Todd Helton's case is pretty good. He needs to extend his career a few more years. He doesn't have 2000 hits yet and he'll be 35 in August. I wasn't really aware of his numbers.

Giants
Omar Vizquel has numbers equal to or better than most slap hitting shortstops. He should get elected.

Padres
Trevor Hoffman is as good a closer as anyone. He will get in.

Who am I missing?

TheKittle
10-23-2008, 10:45 AM
How many current players will end up enshrined at Cooperstown? Some guys are shoe-ins, while other guys are question marks. While someone may look like a lock now, by the end of his career, his stats might not be that impressive (see Dale Murphy). For my purposes, I only considered players with at least ten years in the bigs. So no Pujols or Buerhle or Ichiro. I also think the Hall will become more difficult to get into to over the next several years. So here's my take. I went team by team.

White Sox
Griffey is a lock.
Thome is a lock, but there will be arguements against him. He hasn't done well in MVP voting, and didn't lead the league in offensive catagories often. He was clean during the steriod age though too.


Angels
Vlad Guererro should make it. He'll be 33 next season, and should reach close to 3000 hits (over 2100 now) with over 500 homers (392 now), if he stays relatively healthy and ages okay. Of course if he doesn't make it past 35 in MLB, it could be interesting.

Yankees

Jason Giambi might be the first guy to 500 home runs and not get in. Regardless, he's no Hall of Famer.

Arod is a lock.
Jeter is a lock, but he's aging terribly. He has over 2500 hits, and at 35 next season has a chance at 3000 if he can play regularly.

Ivan Rodriguez is a lock.



Johnny Damon will be 35 next year. he has 2270 hits. He has a slim chance at 3000. If he doesn't get to 3000, what separates him from Al Oliver or Bill Buckner? Probably not in.

Mike Mussina has 270 wins and will be 4o next season. I think he'll pitch at least one more year. He should get elected, regardless if he gets to 300 wins.

Who am I missing?


Just because somebody wasn't mentioned/caught in the Mitchell report, doesn't mean he is clean.

So I-Rod is a lock but you don't think he was on steroids?

As for Giambi, didn't Palmeiro hit 500 HR? He won't get in.

Vlad reminds me of Andre Dawson and Murphy. Posting good numbers but not aging well. Vlad isn't the player he was even two years ago.

Rockabilly
10-23-2008, 10:46 AM
Ichrio & Joe Mauer will be Hall of Famers

Nellie_Fox
10-23-2008, 10:48 AM
... didn't Palmeiro hit 500 HR? He won't get in.500 HR and 3000 hits, each considered HOF landmarks on their own, and he won't get in.

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 10:48 AM
Thome is a lock, but there will be arguements against him. He hasn't done well in MVP voting, and didn't lead the league in offensive catagories often. He was clean during the steriod age though too.
Thome's not quite a lock, but he has a good-guy reputation and could finish with 600+ HR. He'll be a lock if that happens.

Sheffield. He was involved in the steriod scandal. He has the numbers. He has one year left on his contract. He needs one home run to get 500. He may not get a shot. I'm not sold on his credentials.
Sheffield's too much of a jerk to get in. Also consider who he'll be up against: Griffey, Thomas, Bonds, Thome, all the pitchers. He has a very slim chance.

Mariners have no one.
I think any major league service counts toward the ten year minimum (how do they count Negro Leaguers?), so I think Ichiro should be on your list even though he doesn't have ten years in MLB yet.

Jason Giambi might be the first guy to 500 home runs and not get in. Regardless, he's no Hall of Famer.
Mark McGwire on line one. Rafael Palmeiro on line two. Gary Sheffield on line three.

Johnny Damon will be 35 next year. he has 2270 hits. He has a slim chance at 3000. If he doesn't get to 3000, what separates him from Al Oliver or Bill Buckner? Probably not in.
No chance for Damon.

Mike Mussina has 270 wins and will be 4o next season. I think he'll pitch at least one more year. He should get elected, regardless if he gets to 300 wins.
I don't think Mussina gets in, at least not easily. Look at the pitchers he'll be up against:
Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, Martinez, Glavine, Smoltz, Rivera, Hoffman, Schilling. Hall of Fame voters don't like to elect more that three players at a time, so Mussina might get caught up in the wash.

Carlos Delgado is a guy I can't decide on. If he played in the 1970's he'd be a lock. He's got the numbers. He may not have the votes.
Delgado has put up very good numbers, yes, but in an era conducive to hitting. He has no chance.

Carlos Beltran will be 32 next year and is on his way to a great career. Barring injury or some other event that negatively impacts his career, he should get elected. A lot can happen over the next few years. See Don Mattingly.
Beltran is one of the most consistently productive players in baseball. He's also, inexplicably, one of the most maligned. If there's justice, he gets in. Unfortunately, there's little justice in Hall of Fame voting.

Billy Wagner?
No. Closers have it rough (as they should, it's not that valuable a position), and he doesn't have the career accomplishments of Rivera or Hoffman.

Chipper Jones is on his way.
Jones is consistently underrated. I fear he'll be up against too many hitters with better numbers to get in, sadly.

Glavine and Smoltz are automatic.
Glavine, yes. Smoltz, probably, though he, Schilling, and Mussina have similar credentials.

Cubs have Derek Lee. He's 32 and will be for most of next season. He has 1500 hits, and can reach 3000 if he stays healthy. Otherwise, he's a poor man's Steve Garvey.
No way for Lee. He doesn't hit for enough power for a first baseman.

Todd Helton's case is pretty good. He needs to extend his career a few more years. He doesn't have 2000 hits yet and he'll be 35 in August. I wasn't really aware of his numbers.
I think voters will correctly downgrade his Coors-inflated numbers and not elect him.

Omar Vizquel has numbers equal to or better than most slap hitting shortstops. He should get elected.
Ugh, I hope not. Really, has Vizquel ever even been one of the three best shortstops in baseball for any given year? Yeah, he's great defensively, but well below average offensively. Other similar Hall of Famers, Ozzie Smith and Luis Aparicio, played in eras where it wasn't as easy to put up big offensive numbers, which makes Vizquel's mediocrity look worse. Additionally, Smith and Aparico were usually the best players on contending teams. Vizquel was never more than the fifth best player on a contender.

Who am I missing?
Curt Schilling. If Morris is considered a Hall of Fame candidate for one good postseason start, what about Schilling and his three separate amazing postseasons (1993, 2001, 2004) and better regular season numbers? I'm not saying he deserves it, necessarily, but he's got a good shot at getting voted in.

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 10:51 AM
So I-Rod is a lock but you don't think he was on steroids?
For the first 8-10 years of his career (and remember, catchers have shorter careers, in general), you could make a case for Rodriguez being one of the two best catchers ever. No one matched him defensively, and he was no slouch at the plate.

Vlad reminds me of Andre Dawson and Murphy. Posting good numbers but not aging well. Vlad isn't the player he was even two years ago.
I agree. A free-swinger like Vlad will not age well.

Ichrio & Joe Mauer will be Hall of Famers
Agreed on Ichiro, but let's hold off on Mauer until he has a few more outstanding years, OK?

eastchicagosoxfan
10-23-2008, 11:07 AM
Just because somebody wasn't mentioned/caught in the Mitchell report, doesn't mean he is clean.

So I-Rod is a lock but you don't think he was on steroids?

As for Giambi, didn't Palmeiro hit 500 HR? He won't get in.

Vlad reminds me of Andre Dawson and Murphy. Posting good numbers but not aging well. Vlad isn't the player he was even two years ago.

I think Rodriguez is like bonds. His pre-steriod career (if one ever existed, it may be more correct to say his pre-obvious steriod career) was good enough to get him in.

I made it a point to remembr Palmeiro, and then promptly forgot about him.

areilly
10-23-2008, 11:10 AM
Thome is a lock, but there will be arguements against him. He hasn't done well in MVP voting, and didn't lead the league in offensive catagories often. He was clean during the steriod age though too.

Thome, sadly, is not a lock yet. If he gets to 600 home runs then yes, absolutely, but 18 years as a .275/30/90-hitting 1B/DH are not really the stuff legends are made of.

ChiSoxFan81
10-23-2008, 11:13 AM
You forgot Aaron Rowand. He's a lock for the Grinder HOF.

ma-gaga
10-23-2008, 11:14 AM
Just going to parse through your post, since you did a good job. I like looking at these things by position, since IMO that is the best way to compare players rather than looking at their RAW numbers.

My "Locks":
C Mike Piazza
C Ivan Rodriguez
3B Arod
SS Jeter
SS Vizquel
OF Manny
CF Griffey
DH Frank Thomas
SP Pedro Martinez
SP Mike Mussina
SP Andy Petite
SP Glavine
SP Smoltz
SP Greg Maddux
SP Randy Johnson
SP Curt Schilling
RP Mariano Rivera
RP Trevor Hoffman

My "Debatables":
1B Pujols
1B Berkman
2B Jeff Kent
3B Chipper Jones
CF Carlos Beltran
OF Guererro
OF Ichiro
OF Delgado
DH Thome
SP Halladay
RP Billy Wagner

Pretty much all of my 'debatables' are in the 'needs to play 3-4 more years at their current level' to be considered. Jeff Kent is probably "in" if he retired today, simply because he's been one of the best at that position for so long.

The only other player with a legitimate gripe is ... Sammy Sosa. But he's off my list.

:gulp:

eastchicagosoxfan
10-23-2008, 11:19 AM
Just going to parse through your post, since you did a good job. I like looking at these things by position, since IMO that is the best way to compare players rather than looking at their RAW numbers.

My "Locks":
C Mike Piazza
C Ivan Rodriguez
3B Arod
SS Jeter
SS Vizquel
OF Manny
CF Griffey
DH Frank Thomas
SP Pedro Martinez
SP Mike Mussina
SP Andy Petite
SP Glavine
SP Smoltz
SP Greg Maddux
SP Randy Johnson
SP Curt Schilling
RP Mariano Rivera
RP Trevor Hoffman

My "Debatables":
1B Pujols
1B Berkman
2B Jeff Kent
3B Chipper Jones
CF Carlos Beltran
OF Guererro
OF Ichiro
OF Delgado
DH Thome
SP Halladay
RP Billy Wagner

Pretty much all of my 'debatables' are in the 'needs to play 3-4 more years at their current level' to be considered. Jeff Kent is probably "in" if he retired today, simply because he's been one of the best at that position for so long.

The only other player with a legitimate gripe is ... Sammy Sosa. But he's off my list.

:gulp:
I forgot about Kent. I meant to include him.

It was too hard to organize by position, but that is a better way to go about it. I didn't consider guys without at leat ten years, because their careers still have too much uncertainty.

I should have made an exception for Ichiro. The guy has 3000 hits.

hellview
10-23-2008, 11:22 AM
Vlad reminds me of Andre Dawson and Murphy. Posting good numbers but not aging well. Vlad isn't the player he was even two years ago.


Sad to think that Vlad might be putting up more monster numbers if he didn't have to burnout his knees on that concrete in Montreal.

I don't think Mussina gets in, at least not easily. Look at the pitchers he'll be up against:

Moose has pitched his entire career in the AL east during the juiced ball era and has numbers better then Schilling. Sadly he just doesn't have those dominate postseason runs that everyone remembers with Schilling.

Ichrio & Joe Mauer will be Hall of Famers

I don't think Ichiro should or will get in. I believe that Mauer's bat is HOF good, alot depends on how long he can stay behind the plate.

Philly has no one.

You could make a decent case for Jamie Moyer.

Ugh, I hope not. Really, has Vizquel ever even been one of the three best shortstops in baseball for any given year? Yeah, he's great defensively, but well below average offensively. Other similar Hall of Famers, Ozzie Smith and Luis Aparicio, played in eras where it wasn't as easy to put up big offensive numbers, which makes Vizquel's mediocrity look worse. Additionally, Smith and Aparico were usually the best players on contending teams. Vizquel was never more than the fifth best player on a contender.

Omar should and will make it to the HOF one day. It will take years, but he'll get in someday.

How did everyone forget the greatest hitting 2b in MLB history. I know Kent's a dick, but the bat was great.

hellview
10-23-2008, 11:23 AM
SP Andy Petite


Pardon?!?!?!

eastchicagosoxfan
10-23-2008, 11:24 AM
Thome, sadly, is not a lock yet. If he gets to 600 home runs then yes, absolutely, but 18 years as a .275/30/90-hitting 1B/DH are not really the stuff legends are made of.
I agree. If he was clean, as it's generally assumed, I think he gets votes that otherwise a guy like Palmeiro would get, etc. How impressive would his numbers be if everyone were clean when he played? We don't know, but it's something to consider.

eastchicagosoxfan
10-23-2008, 11:27 AM
Sad to think that Vlad might be putting up more monster numbers if he didn't have to burnout his knees on that concrete in Montreal.



Moose has pitched his entire career in the AL east during the juiced ball era and has numbers better then Schilling. Sadly he just doesn't have those dominate postseason runs that everyone remembers with Schilling.



I don't think Ichiro should or will get in. I believe that Mauer's bat is HOF good, alot depends on how long he can stay behind the plate.



You could make a decent case for Jamie Moyer.



Omar should and will make it to the HOF one day. It will take years, but he'll get in someday.

How did everyone forget the greatest hitting 2b in MLB history. I know Kent's a dick, but the bat was great.

Kent's no Rogers Hornsby. Who, incidentally, was also generally regarded as a dick. Coincidence?

Rockabilly
10-23-2008, 11:55 AM
Sad to think that Vlad might be putting up more monster numbers if he didn't have to burnout his knees on that concrete in Montreal.



Moose has pitched his entire career in the AL east during the juiced ball era and has numbers better then Schilling. Sadly he just doesn't have those dominate postseason runs that everyone remembers with Schilling.



I don't think Ichiro should or will get in. I believe that Mauer's bat is HOF good, alot depends on how long he can stay behind the plate.



You could make a decent case for Jamie Moyer.



Omar should and will make it to the HOF one day. It will take years, but he'll get in someday.

How did everyone forget the greatest hitting 2b in MLB history. I know Kent's a dick, but the bat was great.


I am curious why you don't think Ichiro should be a HOF

TheKittle
10-23-2008, 12:19 PM
500 HR and 3000 hits, each considered HOF landmarks on their own, and he won't get in.

Are you agreeing or disagreeing? He tested positive for steroids. He was mentioned in Canseco's book. If you look at his stats and where his power numbers start going up, you can make a case that without help (steroids) he would not be a HOF.

goofymsfan
10-23-2008, 12:28 PM
I am curious why you don't think Ichiro should be a HOF

I second that curiosity.

Oblong
10-23-2008, 12:28 PM
I think the steroid use simply gives the voters the excuse they need to not induct Palmeiro because I suspect many think even without the steroid use that the 500/3000 wasn't enough for him.

EastCoastSoxFan
10-23-2008, 12:35 PM
I think the steroid use simply gives the voters the excuse they need to not induct Palmeiro because I suspect many think even without the steroid use that the 500/3000 wasn't enough for him.Anyone who invokes his no-trade clause to avoid being traded from a mediocre team to a contender should be excluded from the HOF on general principle (see: Palmeiro, R.; Gonzalez, J, Texas, 2003).

TheKittle
10-23-2008, 01:05 PM
I think Rodriguez is like bonds. His pre-steriod career (if one ever existed, it may be more correct to say his pre-obvious steriod career) was good enough to get him in.

I made it a point to remembr Palmeiro, and then promptly forgot about him.


After Canseco's book, I look at Palmeiro's, I-Rod's, Juan Gon, and Dean Palmer's stats a lot differently.

Canseco gets traded to Texas in 92/93 and all of a sudden those four guys power numbers go up within a year or two? Was it the Texas BBQ?

doublem23
10-23-2008, 01:20 PM
I don't think Ichiro should or will get in. I believe that Mauer's bat is HOF good, alot depends on how long he can stay behind the plate.

Care to explain why on Ichiro? I'm not trying to call you out or anything, I just hold him in very high regard, I think he's one of the 2 or 3 best pure hitters I've ever seen.

If he plays 1-2 more years at this level, I think he's a 100% lock.

doublem23
10-23-2008, 01:22 PM
Anyone who invokes his no-trade clause to avoid being traded from a mediocre team to a contender should be excluded from the HOF on general principle (see: Palmeiro, R.; Gonzalez, J, Texas, 2003).

Ridiculous. The Hall of Fame should be limited to what a player does between the white lines. There could be a million reasons as to why someone would not want to uproot their families and lives, none of which ever need to be revealed to you or I.

hellview
10-23-2008, 01:38 PM
What the hell has Ichiro done to be a HOF player in the US. He'll get 2000 hits, but I doubt he gets to 3000. He doesn't hit for power, but steals a good amount of bases. He doesn't get OBP well as a coralation to his AVG and now that he dosen't play CF anymore his worth is even less.

He's a career .807 OPS which is pretty much a league average corner outfielder. Ichiro isn't a HOF player, maybe if he can play at a high level for the next 5 years yes, but as of now or even the next 2-3 years Ichiro is a avg OF that people fan over cause he gets 200 hits, even though he's averaged alomost 700 at-bats a season since he's been in the states.

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 02:01 PM
What the hell has Ichiro done to be a HOF player in the US. He'll get 2000 hits, but I doubt he gets to 3000. He doesn't hit for power, but steals a good amount of bases. He doesn't get OBP well as a coralation to his AVG and now that he dosen't play CF anymore his worth is even less.

He's a career .807 OPS which is pretty much a league average corner outfielder. Ichiro isn't a HOF player, maybe if he can play at a high level for the next 5 years yes, but as of now or even the next 2-3 years Ichiro is a avg OF that people fan over cause he gets 200 hits, even though he's averaged alomost 700 at-bats a season since he's been in the states.
Ichiro's a flawed player, that's for certain. He's not a great pure hitter, as someone stated above, because "pure" hitting does include the ability to get extra-base hits, which Ichiro does not do with as much regularity as you'd like from a corner outfielder.

However, the Hall of Fame is not just for his time in America. After all, what did Josh Gibson and Satchel Paige do in the MLB that merits Hall of Fame induction? It's the Baseball Hall of Fame, not the MLB Hall of Fame.

FedEx227
10-23-2008, 02:09 PM
You could make a decent case for Jamie Moyer.

The problem with Moyer is simply he was never GREAT. He was consistent, played for a long time, but was never a great pitcher in the league.

2001, 2003 and 2008 were his really elite years in the league.

But overall I'm not sure 246-185, 4.19 ERA, 1.32 WHIP is HOF.

Nellie_Fox
10-23-2008, 02:28 PM
Are you agreeing or disagreeing? He tested positive for steroids. He was mentioned in Canseco's book. If you look at his stats and where his power numbers start going up, you can make a case that without help (steroids) he would not be a HOF.I was agreeing with you. His whole career is tainted, and he made it worse by being so indignant at the Congressional hearings. He will not be put in the HOF.

What the hell has Ichiro done to be a HOF player in the US. He'll get 2000 hits, but I doubt he gets to 3000. He doesn't hit for power, but steals a good amount of bases. He doesn't get OBP well as a coralation to his AVG and now that he dosen't play CF anymore his worth is even less.

He's a career .807 OPS which is pretty much a league average corner outfielder. Ichiro isn't a HOF player, maybe if he can play at a high level for the next 5 years yes, but as of now or even the next 2-3 years Ichiro is a avg OF that people fan over cause he gets 200 hits, even though he's averaged alomost 700 at-bats a season since he's been in the states.All-star every season. Gold glove every season. Over 200 hits every season (AL record and tied for MLB record of most consecutive 200 hit seasons.) Then there's the intangible of being the guy who showed that Japanese players could be successful in MLB, starting the parade of players coming over. He'll make the HOF, I'd bet on it.

FedEx227
10-23-2008, 02:51 PM
All-star every season. Gold glove every season. Over 200 hits every season (AL record and tied for MLB record of most consecutive 200 hit seasons.) Then there's the intangible of being the guy who showed that Japanese players could be successful in MLB, starting the parade of players coming over. He'll make the HOF, I'd bet on it.

If not just to further the continuing working relationship between MLB and Japanese baseball leagues.

There are far too many reasons why he WILL be in the HOF as opposed to why he wouldn't.

hellview
10-23-2008, 03:01 PM
All-star every season. Gold glove every season. Over 200 hits every season (AL record and tied for MLB record of most consecutive 200 hit seasons.) Then there's the intangible of being the guy who showed that Japanese players could be successful in MLB, starting the parade of players coming over. He'll make the HOF, I'd bet on it.

Did you really just bring up All-Star and Gold Gloves. Two of the most flawed MLB or fan voted awards in baseball history.

WOW??!?! Intangibles...really?

I know, screw Hideo Nomo, it's all Ichiro.


Ichiro's a flawed player, that's for certain. He's not a great pure hitter, as someone stated above, because "pure" hitting does include the ability to get extra-base hits, which Ichiro does not do with as much regularity as you'd like from a corner outfielder.

However, the Hall of Fame is not just for his time in America. After all, what did Josh Gibson and Satchel Paige do in the MLB that merits Hall of Fame induction? It's the Baseball Hall of Fame, not the MLB Hall of Fame.

Are you seriously comparing what Josh Gibson and Satchel Paige went through in one of the ugliest times in US history to Ichiro slapping singles all day. Those two of poineers of baseball civil rights, Ichiro came to the US in 2001. Bit different racial tone running through America at that time.

Were talking about the National Baseball Hall of Fame, it's for players who impacted American Baseball.

Should Sadaharu Oh be in the National Hall of Fame for what he did?

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 03:04 PM
Ichiro's a flawed player, that's for certain. He's not a great pure hitter, as someone stated above, because "pure" hitting does include the ability to get extra-base hits, which Ichiro does not do with as much regularity as you'd like from a corner outfielder.

However, the Hall of Fame is not just for his time in America. After all, what did Josh Gibson and Satchel Paige do in the MLB that merits Hall of Fame induction? It's the Baseball Hall of Fame, not the MLB Hall of Fame.

Are you seriously comparing what Josh Gibson and Satchel Paige went through in one of the ugliest times in US history to Ichiro slapping singles all day. Those two of poineers of baseball civil rights, Ichiro came to the US in 2001. Bit different racial tone running through America at that time.

Were talking about the National Baseball Hall of Fame, it's for players who impacted American Baseball.

Should Sadaharu Oh be in the National Hall of Fame for what he did?
Jeez hellview, I agree with you that Ichiro is undeserving of the Hall of Fame and you go crazy on me. He's a good player, yes, but not as great as most people will have you believe.

And unlike Oh, he did play in the United States, so he'll get in.

As a matter of fact, he 100% will get into the Hall of Fame because he is perceived to be great. Try to separate "should" and "will" get into the Hall of Fame. Ichiro will, but he probably shouldn't.

hellview
10-23-2008, 03:04 PM
If not just to further the continuing working relationship between MLB and Japanese baseball leagues.

There are far too many reasons why he WILL be in the HOF as opposed to why he wouldn't.

He shouldn't get in cause he hasn't done enough for America Baseball, I give a **** if he's from Japan or not.

Let the crappy M's retire his number and hold Ichiro bobble head night and that's it.

He has no business in the HOF.

Nellie_Fox
10-23-2008, 03:07 PM
Did you really just bring up All-Star and Gold Gloves. Two of the most flawed MLB or fan voted awards in baseball history.
You can get snotty all you want; I firmly believe that Ichiro will be in the HOF, whether you like it or not.

All-Star appearances get discussed all the time when HOF qualifications come up. It's one reason consistently given for Bert Blyleven's exclusion. You can take it to the bank that his making this many consecutive AS games, plus this many consecutive gold gloves, will be brought up when his time comes.

And you completely ignored the MLB record for consecutive 200 hit seasons. Yeah, yeah, I know, "slap hitter." Only home runs matter.

hellview
10-23-2008, 03:10 PM
You can get snotty all you want; I firmly believe that Ichiro will be in the HOF, whether you like it or not.

All-Star appearances get discussed all the time when HOF qualifications come up. It's one reason consistently given for Bert Blyleven's exclusion. You can take it to the bank that his making this many consecutive AS games, plus this many consecutive gold gloves, will be brought up when his time comes.

And you completely ignored the MLB record for consecutive 200 hit seasons. Yeah, yeah, I know, "slap hitter." Only home runs matter.

200 hits when he's averaged almost 700 at-bats a season. Congrats, if you give alot of players 700 at-bats a year they can get 200 hits.

Nellie_Fox
10-23-2008, 03:16 PM
200 hits when he's averaged almost 700 at-bats a season. Congrats, if you give alot of players 700 at-bats a year they can get 200 hits.There's no such word as "alot." If it's so damned easy, how come nobody else has done it? Playing essentially every game for eight straight seasons shows durability. A lot of important records are based on durability.

I don't know why this makes you so angry. I think most baseball fans would acknowledge that he will make the hall, even if they disagree with whether he should.

Dibbs
10-23-2008, 03:18 PM
Pujols

never mind...only players with 10+ years experience.

doublem23
10-23-2008, 03:20 PM
200 hits when he's averaged almost 700 at-bats a season. Congrats, if you give alot of players 700 at-bats a year they can get 200 hits.

:rolleyes:

These stats don't mean ****, unless they're backing up my point.

Ichiro is a Hall of Fame player. Next discussion.

turners56
10-23-2008, 03:22 PM
Thome, sadly, is not a lock yet. If he gets to 600 home runs then yes, absolutely, but 18 years as a .275/30/90-hitting 1B/DH are not really the stuff legends are made of.

Thome's a career .280 hitter whose 162 game average is 41 homers and 112 RBIs. That's pretty close to a legend.

turners56
10-23-2008, 03:27 PM
He shouldn't get in cause he hasn't done enough for America Baseball, I give a **** if he's from Japan or not.

Let the crappy M's retire his number and hold Ichiro bobble head night and that's it.

He has no business in the HOF.

The guy won an MVP in his rookie season. He has 3000 hits in his career combined from here and in Japan. Not to mention his success here is almost as good as it was in Japan. A career .331 leadoff hitter with an OPS of .807 (which is usually above league average) is god damn impressive. Not to mention his annual 40 stolen bases and his incredible arm and range. I don't know if he's a lock, but he sure deserves a shot at the Hall.

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 03:27 PM
And you completely ignored the MLB record for consecutive 200 hit seasons. Yeah, yeah, I know, "slap hitter." Only home runs matter.
Come on, Nellie. Do you seriously not see the lesser value a singles-only hitter provides? And nice "only home runs matter" strawman.

Ichiro's isolated slugging (SLG-AVG) is only .099. For a corner outfielder! He averages 42 extra-base hits over 162 games.

Ichiro is startlingly similar to Kenny Lofton. Here are the 162-game averages for both:

Ichiro: .331/.377/.430, 9 HR, 25 2B, 8 3B
Lofton: .299/.372/.423, 10 HR, 30 2B, 9 3B

The only area in which Ichiro is ahead is batting average, but Lofton makes up for that with his willingness to take a walk and his better slugging ability. Lofton was also an excellent defender at a more premium position, CF.

Is Kenny Lofton a slam-dunk Hall of Famer too?

Rockabilly
10-23-2008, 03:30 PM
Anyone who thinks Ichiro is not a HOF...

Really doesn't know much about baseball

WhiteSox5187
10-23-2008, 03:31 PM
There's no such word as "alot." If it's so damned easy, how come nobody else has done it? Playing essentially every game for eight straight seasons shows durability. A lot of important records are based on durability.

I don't know why this makes you so angry. I think most baseball fans would acknowledge that he will make the hall, even if they disagree with whether he should.
I don't always agree with you Nellie, but here you're dead on accurate. Ichiro is a HOFer, easy.

This is very much a dark horse candidate that I'm going to toss out here, but IF Buerhle can wind up winning 250+ games, I think there is a case, just a case, to be made that he is a Hall of Famer. Obviously though he has a long way to go.

Nellie_Fox
10-23-2008, 03:33 PM
Come on, Nellie. Do you seriously not see the lesser value a singles-only hitter provides? And nice "only home runs matter" strawman.

Ichiro's isolated slugging (SLG-AVG) is only .099. For a corner outfielder! He averages 42 extra-base hits over 162 games.

Ichiro is startlingly similar to Kenny Lofton. Here are the 162-game averages for both:

Ichiro: .331/.377/.430, 9 HR, 25 2B, 8 3B
Lofton: .299/.372/.423, 10 HR, 30 2B, 9 3B

The only area in which Ichiro is ahead is batting average, but Lofton makes up for that with his willingness to take a walk and his better slugging ability. Lofton was also an excellent defender at a more premium position, CF.

Is Kenny Lofton a slam-dunk Hall of Famer too?Modern baseball fans lose track of the fact that it's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Impressive Statistics.

Where do you get "better" slugging ability out of a lower SLG%? And he's a corner outfielder at the choice of the M's. He clearly has the speed, range and arm for center if they chose.

Ask yourself this: if you were starting a team tomorrow, and could have either Lofton in his prime or Ichiro in his, which would you want?

turners56
10-23-2008, 03:33 PM
Come on, Nellie. Do you seriously not see the lesser value a singles-only hitter provides? And nice "only home runs matter" strawman.

Ichiro's isolated slugging (SLG-AVG) is only .099. For a corner outfielder! He averages 42 extra-base hits over 162 games.

Ichiro is startlingly similar to Kenny Lofton. Here are the 162-game averages for both:

Ichiro: .331/.377/.430, 9 HR, 25 2B, 8 3B
Lofton: .299/.372/.423, 10 HR, 30 2B, 9 3B

The only area in which Ichiro is ahead is batting average, but Lofton makes up for that with his willingness to take a walk and his better slugging ability. Lofton was also an excellent defender at a more premium position, CF.

Is Kenny Lofton a slam-dunk Hall of Famer too?

How is Lofton's slugging ability better? His SLG% is lower than Ichiro's.

Ichiro does play CF now. One of the only reasons he played in right was because of his arm and also because Mike Cameron played in center a lot during the first half of Ichiro's career.

hellview
10-23-2008, 03:38 PM
Come on, Nellie. Do you seriously not see the lesser value a singles-only hitter provides? And nice "only home runs matter" strawman.

Ichiro's isolated slugging (SLG-AVG) is only .099. For a corner outfielder! He averages 42 extra-base hits over 162 games.

Ichiro is startlingly similar to Kenny Lofton. Here are the 162-game averages for both:

Ichiro: .331/.377/.430, 9 HR, 25 2B, 8 3B
Lofton: .299/.372/.423, 10 HR, 30 2B, 9 3B

The only area in which Ichiro is ahead is batting average, but Lofton makes up for that with his willingness to take a walk and his better slugging ability. Lofton was also an excellent defender at a more premium position, CF.

Is Kenny Lofton a slam-dunk Hall of Famer too?

Great post sir...

The guy won an MVP in his rookie season. He has 3000 hits in his career combined from here and in Japan. Not to mention his success here is almost as good as it was in Japan. A career .331 leadoff hitter with an OPS of .807 (which is usually above league average) is god damn impressive. Not to mention his annual 40 stolen bases and his incredible arm and range. I don't know if he's a lock, but he sure deserves a shot at the Hall.

.807 OPS for a corner outfielder is league average there killer.

hellview
10-23-2008, 03:40 PM
Ichiro does play CF now. One of the only reasons he played in right was because of his arm and also because Mike Cameron played in center a lot during the first half of Ichiro's career.

Ichiro is back in RF, so he's a corner outfielder which makes his stats even worse.

turners56
10-23-2008, 03:42 PM
Great post sir...



.807 OPS for a corner outfielder is league average there killer.

Like somebody else said before, he was a RF by the choice of the Mariners. He's fully capable of playing CF. Are you going to underrate his value just because his club made it that way?

BTW, a career OPS+ of 117 is not league average...

It's 17% better than league average.

hellview
10-23-2008, 03:43 PM
Ask yourself this: if you were starting a team tomorrow, and could have either Lofton in his prime or Ichiro in his, which would you want?

OH MY GOD!!!!?!?!?!?!?!

Hahahahahahaha...ok I'm done laughing.

Lofton cause his ability to take a walk and steal more bases.

turners56
10-23-2008, 03:44 PM
Ichiro is back in RF, so he's a corner outfielder which makes his stats even worse.

My goodness. They moved him back in favor of Balentien and Reed?

turners56
10-23-2008, 03:44 PM
OH MY GOD!!!!?!?!?!?!?!

Hahahahahahaha...ok I'm done laughing.

Lofton cause his ability to take a walk and steal more bases.

Even when Lofton takes his walks, his OBP is lower than Ichiro's.

Case and point - Ichiro gets on base more and makes less outs.

And oh btw, Lofton averages 48 SBs per 162 games. Ichiro averages 40. OMG, an 8 stolen base difference!

Nellie_Fox
10-23-2008, 03:45 PM
OH MY GOD!!!!?!?!?!?!?!

Hahahahahahaha...ok I'm done laughing.Can you reply civilly, or do you find it necessary to be a complete jerk?

hellview
10-23-2008, 03:46 PM
Like somebody else said before, he was a RF by the choice of the Mariners. He's fully capable of playing CF. Are you going to underrate his value just because his club made it that way?

BTW, a career OPS+ of 117 is not league average...

It's 17% better than league average.

No cause he's played the majority of his career as a right fielder, so you compare his stats to other right fielders.

WOW 17% First ballot HOF, lock Copperstown down.

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 03:46 PM
Modern baseball fans lose track of the fact that it's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Impressive Statistics.
Seriously, this argument? Well then, let's put Jose Canseco and John Rocker in. Kerry Wood, too. How about Fukudome? And Joe Carter? And Bill Buckner? They're some of the most famous players out there.

Where do you get "better" slugging ability out of a lower SLG%?
How is Lofton's slugging ability better? His SLG% is lower than Ichiro's.
Sorry, I should have said "better power-hitting ability". Remember, AVG can prop up both OBP and SLG, as its components are included in both.

A truer measure of power is to use isolated slugging, which is SLG-AVG. Ichiro's is .099 (less than one extra base every ten at bats). Lofton's is .124, which is not very good, but better than Ichiro's.

doublem23
10-23-2008, 03:47 PM
OH MY GOD!!!!?!?!?!?!?!

Hahahahahahaha...ok I'm done laughing.

Lofton cause his ability to take a walk and steal more bases.

A single is more valuable than a walk. If they're going to have the same end OBP, what's wrong with the guy that puts the ball in play more consistently? :dunno:

PS, any odds that Lofton's stats are influenced because he hit in front of the best offensive juggernauts of the generation?

Nellie_Fox
10-23-2008, 03:48 PM
Lofton cause his ability to take a walk and steal more bases.162 game avg: Lofton 48 SB, .372 OBP. Ichiro 40, .377. Next?

turners56
10-23-2008, 03:49 PM
Seriously, this argument? Well then, let's put Jose Canseco and John Rocker in. Kerry Wood, too. How about Fukudome? And Joe Carter? And Bill Buckner? They're some of the most famous players out there.



Sorry, I should have said "better power-hitting ability". Remember, AVG can prop up both OBP and SLG, as its components are included in both.

A truer measure of power is to use isolated slugging, which is SLG-AVG. Ichiro's is .099 (less than one extra base every ten at bats). Lofton's is .124, which is not very good, but better than Ichiro's.

We're talking about leadoff hitters here. Not hitters in the middle of the order. Lofton averages only 8 more extra base hits than Ichiro per 162 games. It's not a huge difference.

hellview
10-23-2008, 03:50 PM
162 game avg: Lofton 48 SB, .372 OBP. Ichiro 40, .377. Next?

Also has anyone factored in Ichiro's eventually decline period like Lofton and they fact that Ichiro started his MLB career in his prime of his life.

Nellie_Fox
10-23-2008, 03:51 PM
And do you understand how many outs Ichiro makes when you have 700 at bats and you don't walk much.OBP is OBP. He makes no greater % of outs than someone with the same OBP in fewer AB.

turners56
10-23-2008, 03:52 PM
No cause he's played the majority of his career as a right fielder, so you compare his stats to other right fielders.

WOW 17% First ballot HOF, lock Copperstown down.

So I guess Pedroia's 123 OPS+ this year isn't good enough to win MVP then either huh? I know some people are advocating that he should.

Again, if we're only going to look at OPS+, Jack Cust should be going to the hall of fame. I think we're forgetting that Ichiro is much more than a good hitter. He can run and he can field too.

BTW, if you want Lofton's career OPS+, it's 10% worse than Ichiro's.

goofymsfan
10-23-2008, 03:53 PM
A single is more valuable than a walk. If they're going to have the same end OBP, what's wrong with the guy that puts the ball in play more consistently? :dunno:

PS, any odds that Lofton's stats are influenced because he hit in front of the best offensive juggernauts of the generation?

And with Ichiro's speed, the singles while sometimes lead him to be at Second or even third because fielders rush their throws or mishandle the ball which leads to errors.

Nellie_Fox
10-23-2008, 03:53 PM
I have to leave now. I guess we'll all just have to wait and see if Ichiro gets in. I say he does, and I say he deserves it.

turners56
10-23-2008, 03:53 PM
Also has anyone factored in Ichiro's eventually decline period like Lofton and they fact that Ichiro started his MLB career in his prime of his life.

He's already 35 and he's still producing. Granted, it hasn't been as good as his previous years. But the guy had one of his best years at 34 in 2007. I think he still has a good amount left in the tank.

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 03:55 PM
A single is more valuable than a walk. If they're going to have the same end OBP, what's wrong with the guy that puts the ball in play more consistently? :dunno:
Nothing. In fact, I would take Ichiro over Lofton. His numbers are a little bit better (though, as hellview pointed out, he has yet to hit his decline phase).

But to me, the fact that you have to actually argue that Ichiro is better shows that he does not quite deserve to be elected to the Hall of Fame. Either that, or Kenny Lofton's name should at least be brought up when discussing candidates.

hellview
10-23-2008, 03:59 PM
He's already 35 and he's still producing. Granted, it hasn't been as good as his previous years. But the guy had one of his best years at 34 in 2007. I think he still has a good amount left in the tank.

That's doesn't matter to what were talking about. Ichiro started his MLB career at 28 and, so his stats are based off nothing but the prime of his career. He didn't break into the majors at 22-23 and hasn't gone through his decline so for that Lofton's numbers are equal or IMO greater then what Ichiro's done in his career.

doublem23
10-23-2008, 04:01 PM
But to me, the fact that you have to actually argue that Ichiro is better shows that he does not quite deserve to be elected to the Hall of Fame. Either that, or Kenny Lofton's name should at least be brought up when discussing candidates.

No, it just proves there are stubborn people who will argue anything to any end. Ichiro is a sure-thing Hall of Famer in my book, regardless of how many lame statistics you can conjour up. His credential speak for themselves.

doublem23
10-23-2008, 04:02 PM
That's doesn't matter to what were talking about. Ichiro started his MLB career at 28 and, so his stats are based off nothing but the prime of his career. He didn't break into the majors at 22-23 and hasn't gone through his decline so for that Lofton's numbers are equal or IMO greater then what Ichiro's done in his career.

Ah yes, the old, "I only recognize the stats that back up my opinion" rebuff. Very convincing. :thumbsup:

turners56
10-23-2008, 04:07 PM
That's doesn't matter to what were talking about. Ichiro started his MLB career at 28 and, so his stats are based off nothing but the prime of his career. He didn't break into the majors at 22-23 and hasn't gone through his decline so for that Lofton's numbers are equal or IMO greater then what Ichiro's done in his career.

Yeah, that's cause his stats in Japan also sucked right? Outside of his rookie season, Ichiro was an absolute monster in Japan. And by his credentials here in the U.S. it's pretty convincing that he would of put up similar numbers here.

hellview
10-23-2008, 04:12 PM
No, it just proves there are stubborn people who will argue anything to any end. Ichiro is a sure-thing Hall of Famer in my book, regardless of how many lame statistics you can conjour up. His credential speak for themselves.

How is it that your wrong or right when it's clearly a debatable subject. This isn't Randy Johnson, Greg Maddox or Manny.

This is a subject that can be debated. No one here is right or wrong.

fusillirob1983
10-23-2008, 04:14 PM
Ichiro has missed 16 games since he's been in America, 10 of which were in his first two seasons.

Lofton has played 154 games in two seasons and 148 or fewer games in his other seasons.

I'm not saying Hall of Fame votes are based on games played, but it will be given some consideration in Ichiro's case. I don't think it will work against Lofton though.

You can definitely argue Lofton was one of the best leadoff hitters in the league from 1993 until 2001. Ichiro was one of the best leadoff hitters in the league from 2001 to 2008.

Does Ichiro have an OPS of .807 as a right fielder? Sure, that's where the M's put him. Can he play center field as well as Kenny Lofton? Probably, maybe better. He has a better arm.

Can Kenny Lofton play right field as good as Ichiro? Probably not, his arm isn't as good. Lofton's an ideal center fielder, so it's good that he played center. Before anyone gets any ideas, I understand that the Hall of Fame doesn't take into account how a player "might have" played at one position or another, just throwing this out there to explain that Ichiro's a great baseball player, but circumstances that are not in his control prevented him from being directly compared to Kenny Lofton.

Should Ozzie Smith be compared to A-Rod? - No

Should Kenny Lofton be compared to Ken Griffey Jr? - No

Why should Ichiro be compared to other right fielders when he is clearly a completely different type of player?


Edit: Also, just wanted to add: I'm not saying Kenny Lofton won't get in, that is up for debate, but 2 more years for Ichiro in MLB like he's had and he's probably a lock.

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 04:16 PM
No, it just proves there are stubborn people who will argue anything to any end. Ichiro is a sure-thing Hall of Famer in my book, regardless of how many lame statistics you can conjour up. His credential speak for themselves.
Which credentials, exactly? I've been showing that his credentials in the U.S. are only marginally better than Kenny Lofton, a player whom everyone agrees is not Hall of Fame material.

His Japanese credentials? Those numbers are dubious, at best, as he's not competing against the same level of competition.

I'm not saying Ichiro won't make the Hall of Fame. There's no question that he will, knowing what voters value and his popularity. But he's not a slam-dunk, fully-deserving Hall of Famer like you are insinuating. He's borderline; if I had a vote, I probably wouldn't include him on my ballot.

doublem23
10-23-2008, 04:17 PM
This is a subject that can be debated. No one here is right or wrong.

I agree, but I personally think Ichiro is pretty much in that 100% Lock Category now.

hellview
10-23-2008, 04:19 PM
I agree, but I personally think Ichiro is pretty much in that 100% Lock Category now.

That's fine and that's your opinion. But don't call people subborn cause they want to debate the subject of a guy getting into the HOF.

You wanna argue politics or religion too?

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 04:19 PM
Ichiro has missed 16 games since he's been in America, 10 of which were in his first two seasons.

Lofton has played 154 games in two seasons and 148 or fewer games in his other seasons.

I'm not saying Hall of Fame votes are based on games played, but it will be given some consideration in Ichiro's case. I don't think it will work against Lofton though.

You can definitely argue Lofton was one of the best leadoff hitters in the league from 1993 until 2001. Ichiro was one of the best leadoff hitters in the league from 2001 to 2008.

Does Ichiro have an OPS of .807 as a right fielder? Sure, that's where the M's put him. Can he play center field as well as Kenny Lofton? Probably, maybe better. He has a better arm.

Can Kenny Lofton play right field as good as Ichiro? Probably not, his arm isn't as good. Lofton's an ideal center fielder, so it's good that he played center. Before anyone gets any ideas, I understand that the Hall of Fame doesn't take into account how a player "might have" played at one position or another, just throwing this out there to explain that Ichiro's a great baseball player, but circumstances that are not in his control prevented him from being directly compared to Kenny Lofton.

Should Ozzie Smith be compared to A-Rod? - No

Should Kenny Lofton be compared to Ken Griffey Jr? - No

Why should Ichiro be compared to other right fielders when he is clearly a completely different type of player?
I actually agree quite a bit with your post. If anything, my research for this thread has shown me that Kenny Lofton should get more credit.

However, I completely disagree with your answers to the questions in bold. If we don't compare Ozzie Smith to other shortstops and Kenny Lofton to other centerfielders, whom shall we compare them to? Other glove specialists?

Why not go further? Why not compare Juan Uribe to other free-swinging, slick defensively, pudgy infielders? He probably grades out pretty well, there. Why not compare Reggie Sanders to other journeyman outfielders? He's the best one of those there is.

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 04:20 PM
That's fine and that's your opinion. But don't call people subborn cause they want to debate the subject of a guy getting into the HOF.

You wanna argue politics or religion too?
hellview, I'm on your side on Ichiro's merit, but doublem is right: Ichiro is a lock to be voted into the Hall of Fame, barring some catastrophic future events, regardless of if he's really Hall of Fame caliber.

hellview
10-23-2008, 04:27 PM
hellview, I'm on your side on Ichiro's merit, but doublem is right: Ichiro is a lock to be voted into the Hall of Fame, barring some catastrophic future events, regardless of if he's really Hall of Fame caliber.

I don't think in the main the masses are gonna think. If you ask me if Torii Hunter is gonna win another gold glove I'll say "yes" But that doesn't mean he derserves it, that's what this is about.

Ichiro more then likely will end up in the HOF, but I'm not gonna just conseed the fact that's it's very debated if he should get it.

ma-gaga
10-23-2008, 04:31 PM
Pardon?!?!?!

Stats: (http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pettian01.shtml)

Well, I should probably have him in the "debatable" category. However, I'm pretty certain his durability, and post-season pitching (actually not that spectacular, but certainly solid) and his 4 WS rings will get him in.

He's at 215 "Wins" (I know, I know, what a crappy stat) but he's only 36 years old. So give him 3 more years of pitching (and I don't know what he's planning on doing, so if he retired last month then whatever) and 11-14 wins per year, and he should be "in".

fusillirob1983
10-23-2008, 04:32 PM
I actually agree quite a bit with your post. If anything, my research for this thread has shown me that Kenny Lofton should get more credit.

However, I completely disagree with your answers to the questions in bold. If we don't compare Ozzie Smith to other shortstops and Kenny Lofton to other centerfielders, whom shall we compare them to? Other glove specialists?

Why not go further? Why not compare Juan Uribe to other free-swinging, slick defensively, pudgy infielders? He probably grades out pretty well, there. Why not compare Reggie Sanders to other journeyman outfielders? He's the best one of those there is.

Sorry, let me rephrase my questions based on what I meant to say:

Is Ozzie Smith compared to A-Rod? - Not really. If he was, he probably wouldn't be in the Hall of Fame.

Are Kenny Lofton and other center fielders compared to Griffey? - Not really.

Those are unique players that don't come along too often. Ozzie Smith, Lofton, and Ichiro are all great players. I think the question at this point is will Kenny Lofton be voted in (probably not based on things already mentioned in this thread and others) and not Kenny Lofton vs. Ichiro getting in.

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 04:37 PM
Stats: (http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pettian01.shtml)

Well, I should probably have him in the "debatable" category. However, I'm pretty certain his durability, and post-season pitching (actually not that spectacular, but certainly solid) and his 4 WS rings will get him in.

He's at 215 "Wins" (I know, I know, what a crappy stat) but he's only 36 years old. So give him 3 more years of pitching (and I don't know what he's planning on doing, so if he retired last month then whatever) and 11-14 wins per year, and he should be "in".

His ERA+ is only 117?!?
(ma-gaga is talking about Andy Pettite)

Eh, look who he'll be up against:

Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Martinez, Glavine, Smoltz, Schilling, Mussina, Rivera, Hoffman.

Hall of Fame voters have shown they don't like to elect more than three players from the main ballot in a single year. Pettite does not have the resume of any of the above players, so he'll have to wait for all of them and various position players to get in before he does. I don't see it happening.

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 04:42 PM
Sorry, let me rephrase my questions based on what I meant to say:

Is Ozzie Smith compared to A-Rod? - Not really. If he was, he probably wouldn't be in the Hall of Fame.

Are Kenny Lofton and other center fielders compared to Griffey? - Not really.

Those are unique players that don't come along too often. Ozzie Smith, Lofton, and Ichiro are all great players. I think the question at this point is will Kenny Lofton be voted in (probably not based on things already mentioned in this thread and others) and not Kenny Lofton vs. Ichiro getting in.
Ah, well that's certainly true. Had Ozzie Smith come along after Ripken, Trammel (it's an injustice that he's not in), Rodriguez, Jeter, and other good-hitting shortstops, he probably wouldn't have been a first-ballot guy.

But, he did have a uniqueness to him. He was the face of the Cardinal franchise. Ichiro is the same for the Mariner franchise, which is why he'll get in.

hellview
10-23-2008, 04:43 PM
I got one for people: Should Bernie Williams be in the HOF?

Eddo144
10-23-2008, 04:45 PM
I got one for people: Should Bernie Williams be in the HOF?
Gut reaction: no. But that's without any investigation into his career. My initial feeling is that he's just a product of winning, and doesn't really hold up well compared to other outfielders of the era.

hellview
10-23-2008, 04:49 PM
Gut reaction: no. But that's without any investigation into his career. My initial feeling is that he's just a product of winning, and doesn't really hold up well compared to other outfielders of the era.

Look up Bernie's numbers and then look up Kirby Puckett's numbers.

Now you can get into the debate that Kirby's still have productive years ahead of him if he wouldn't have gotten hurt and had to retire.

I just brought this up as an example that arguing the HOF talk is no different then politics or religion. There's holes in any argument you can make.

No one here is right or wrong.

BadBobbyJenks
10-23-2008, 06:33 PM
Chipper Jones is a lock, IMO.

Oblong
10-23-2008, 08:37 PM
Look up Bernie's numbers and then look up Kirby Puckett's numbers.

Now you can get into the debate that Kirby's still have productive years ahead of him if he wouldn't have gotten hurt and had to retire.

I just brought this up as an example that arguing the HOF talk is no different then politics or religion. There's holes in any argument you can make.

No one here is right or wrong.

Look at Kirby Puckett's numbers and compare them to Albert Belle. Both had to retire early due to injury.

Just sayin'

MrT27
10-23-2008, 08:45 PM
Here is the way I like to look at it. Roughly 1% of guys who play baseball make the Hall of Fame. I ask myself, was (fill in name here) one of the top 1% of players in the era in which he played?


Bill James Gold Mine 2008 had a "Hall of Famers Among Us" chapter which analyzes when we are trying to do in this thread. It has an actual % (if the player retired today) and an eventual % (based on a projection of what he might accomplish). These aren't ment to prove anything or whatever they are just fun to look at and are ment to stimulate more converstion. Note: These %'s were made after the 07' season so this years preformances aren't factored in.

Presents 70+%
- Craig Biggio (98%)
- Barry Bonds (85%)
- Roger Clemens (99%)
- Tom Glavine (99%)
- Griffey (99%)
- Vladimir Gurrero (70%)
- Trevor Hoffman (75%)
- Jeter (95%)
- Randy Johnson (98%)
- Greg Maddux (99%)
- Pedro Martinez (80%)
- Mike Mussina (80%)
- Mike Piazza (85%)
- Mariano Rivera (98%)
- ARod (99%)
- IRod (98%)
- Gary Sheffield (70%)
- John Smoltz (70%)
- Frank Thomas (80%)
- Jim Thone (75%)
- Omar Vizquel (80%)

Eventual 70%+ (just those not listed above)
- Carlos Beltran (70%)
- Todd Helton (70%)
- Chipper Jones (85%)
- Manny Ramirez (80%)
- Ichiro Suxuki (85%)

Other Sox and Ex-Sox (Present) (Eventual)
- Mark Buehrle (0%) (10%)
- Orlando Cabrera (0%) (5%)
- Bartolo Colon (0%) (4%)
- Jermaine Dye (0%) (1%)
- Julio Franco (25%) (25%)
- Freddy Garcia (0%) (1%)
- Tom Gordon (1%) (1%)
- Orlando Hernandez (5%) (5%)
- Roberto Hernandez (1%) (1%)
- Carlos Lee (0%) (10%)
- Kenny Lofton (1%) (8%)
- Magglio Ordonez (0%) (30%)
- Nick Swisher (0%) (1%)
- Javier Vazquez (0%) (5%)
- David Wells (15%) (17%)

Oblong
10-23-2008, 08:48 PM
He had said before that when you take a snapshot and different points in baseball history that roughly 10% of the active players at that time will eventually make the HOF.

MrT27
10-23-2008, 09:07 PM
He had said before that when you take a snapshot and different points in baseball history that roughly 10% of the active players at that time will eventually make the HOF.This is true but only 1% of players who played have made it.

champagne030
10-23-2008, 09:18 PM
That's doesn't matter to what were talking about. Ichiro started his MLB career at 28 and, so his stats are based off nothing but the prime of his career. He didn't break into the majors at 22-23 and hasn't gone through his decline so for that Lofton's numbers are equal or IMO greater then what Ichiro's done in his career.

Ichiro has 1800 hits in his 8 MLB seasons. Get over it - he's a HOF'er. Gwynn went in first ballot and I view them fairly similar. Lofton isn't going to sniff the HOF. Had Ichiro broke into the league at 22 and played 'til 40 he would've broke Rose's hit record. It's not even a question. He's a lock.

FedEx227
10-23-2008, 09:29 PM
This is true but only 1% of players who played have made it.

But you have to look at periods, because the committee only puts so many in per year. It's not as if you have a high-time in baseball and say "Well these 10 guys are all deserving... let's put them all in."

That's why you have to take the snapshot of that time and say was he in the top 10% in HIS time period.

That's why a lot of the guys, career DHs (Thome, Chipper Jones etc) are not locks, yes compared to past players Chipper Jones trumps them in categories, but put him in the context of his era and he is only above-average.

That's where a lot of HOF arguments end up going around and around in circles.

Well if Kirby Puckett got in, why can't Raul Ibanez get in? It's laughable, because completely different eras, completely different stadiums, completely different game. You have to look at the context of the time in which that player was playing. Compare him to his fellow players of the time, not 1956 Hall of Fame inductees.

Sockinchisox
10-23-2008, 09:39 PM
:hawk

"I tell ya Feisty, this Gomez kid is gonna be in the Hall of Fame"

MrT27
10-23-2008, 11:17 PM
But you have to look at periods, because the committee only puts so many in per year. It's not as if you have a high-time in baseball and say "Well these 10 guys are all deserving... let's put them all in."

That's why you have to take the snapshot of that time and say was he in the top 10% in HIS time period.

That's why a lot of the guys, career DHs (Thome, Chipper Jones etc) are not locks, yes compared to past players Chipper Jones trumps them in categories, but put him in the context of his era and he is only above-average.

That's where a lot of HOF arguments end up going around and around in circles.

Well if Kirby Puckett got in, why can't Raul Ibanez get in? It's laughable, because completely different eras, completely different stadiums, completely different game. You have to look at the context of the time in which that player was playing. Compare him to his fellow players of the time, not 1956 Hall of Fame inductees.Thats exactly what I said tho. I said "I ask myself, was (fill in name here) one of the top 1% of players in the era in which he played?"
I totally understand what your saying. Its as simple as comparing what 500 career HR means now as to that it meant 50 years ago.

pmck003
10-23-2008, 11:47 PM
Good arguments on Ichiro from both sides. I agree he makes the Hall because of the Fame part. Looking at the post with the percentages, Julio Franco is interesting; think he gets a bonus for longevity? - I dunno if I would advocate for him to make it

Nellie_Fox
10-24-2008, 12:36 AM
Oddly enough, I think we tend to be tougher on players whose careers we've actually seen. Those who are already in the HOF, and who played before our time (or played when we were just little kids,) are seen through the "mists of time," and seem immortal. We think those we've seen since we've been "knowledgeable" baseball fans just can't compare because we've seen them fail in the clutch; we've seen them have long slumps. We tend to think that the legends never did those things.

HomeFish
10-24-2008, 01:30 AM
I feel that insufficient criticism has been made of the original post on the grounds that it gave Carlos Lee a 30% chance at the Hall of Fame.

I love el Caballo, but I would have trouble making that prediction with a straight face.

eastchicagosoxfan
10-24-2008, 01:48 AM
I feel that insufficient criticism has been made of the original post on the grounds that it gave Carlos Lee a 30% chance at the Hall of Fame.

I love el Caballo, but I would have trouble making that prediction with a straight face.
It's not unreasonable to project Lee to have similiar numbers to Andre Dawson. Those are borderline Hall of Fame numbers. Some guys get in, some don't.

Eddo144
10-24-2008, 07:53 AM
That's why a lot of the guys, career DHs (Thome, Chipper Jones etc) are not locks, yes compared to past players Chipper Jones trumps them in categories, but put him in the context of his era and he is only above-average.
Chipper Jones plays third base. He has been the second best third baseman of his era, behind only Alex Rodriguez. I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I've move into the "Chipper Jones is a lock" category.

Eddo144
10-24-2008, 07:57 AM
It's not unreasonable to project Lee to have similiar numbers to Andre Dawson. Those are borderline Hall of Fame numbers. Some guys get in, some don't.
First of all, Lee has better numbers. However, he also plays in an era where offensive numbers are up for everyone.

Secondly, if (when?) Dawson gets elected, it will be a joke. His OBP was .323 for his career, at a time when the league average was .332. He was below-average at not making outs. Worse than your run-of-the-mill major leaguer! And he was a corner outfielder, a position where offense takes priority over defense.

Might as well elect Trot Nixon, Mike Cameron, Jermaine Dye, and Garrett Anderson if Dawson is elected.

(Yes, Puckett is similarly lacking, and probably should not be in the Hall of Fame, but his career ended through off-the-field tragedy, which voters take into account. It is my opinion, however, that the voters were wrong.)

hellview
10-24-2008, 08:14 AM
Look at Kirby Puckett's numbers and compare them to Albert Belle. Both had to retire early due to injury.

Just sayin'

Belle was also a DH while Kirby played a premium position in CF.

Oblong
10-24-2008, 08:23 AM
Belle was also a DH while Kirby played a premium position in CF.

??

Belle played in 222 games at DH, out of 1311, and 100 of those games came in 1992.

Puckett played in 81.

I'm not saying they are exactly comparable but it's just interesting. They aren't that far apart in my opinion. If Belle was a nice guy he may have gotten more consideration.

hellview
10-24-2008, 08:24 AM
That's why a lot of the guys, career DHs (Thome, Chipper Jones etc) are not locks, yes compared to past players Chipper Jones trumps them in categories, but put him in the context of his era and he is only above-average.


Well if Kirby Puckett got in, why can't Raul Ibanez get in? It's laughable, because completely different eras, completely different stadiums, completely different game. You have to look at the context of the time in which that player was playing. Compare him to his fellow players of the time, not 1956 Hall of Fame inductees.

First off how is Chipper Jones a career DH when he's spent his entire career in the NL?

You guys need to stop comparing up the middle positions to corner positions. Your not gonna get the same offense from CF, SS, 2B, C as 1B, 3B, RF and LF.

So don't sit here and say this guy is a HOF cause his stats are similar to this guy.

hellview
10-24-2008, 08:27 AM
??

Belle played in 222 games at DH, out of 1311, and 100 of those games came in 1992.

Puckett played in 81.

I'm not saying they are exactly comparable but it's just interesting. They aren't that far apart in my opinion. If Belle was a nice guy he may have gotten more consideration.

My bad, well one's a corner spot while Kirby was a DH.

World of difference.

Nellie_Fox
10-25-2008, 12:24 AM
My bad, well one's a corner spot while Kirby was a DH.

World of difference.Once again (already mentioned above, but you apparently missed it) Puckett was NOT a DH. He was DH in 81 games for his entire career.

Frater Perdurabo
10-25-2008, 05:13 AM
Oddly enough, I think we tend to be tougher on players whose careers we've actually seen. Those who are already in the HOF, and who played before our time (or played when we were just little kids,) are seen through the "mists of time," and seem immortal. We think those we've seen since we've been "knowledgeable" baseball fans just can't compare because we've seen them fail in the clutch; we've seen them have long slumps. We tend to think that the legends never did those things.

This really is an excellent point.

Brian26
10-25-2008, 11:29 PM
Chipper Jones plays third base. He has been the second best third baseman of his era, behind only Alex Rodriguez. I'm not sure what you're getting at here. I've move into the "Chipper Jones is a lock" category.

Chipper Jones is an absolute lock. Just look at his numbers across the board. He's quietly put together a HOF career.

decolores9628
10-26-2008, 04:09 AM
I just looked at Chipper's numbers. WOW, he is amazing. I never really paid attention to him because he has been in the NL for his whole career and I am only 20, so I don't really remember his golden years

But at .310 AVG and 408 HRs and over 1300 RBIs at 3rd base?! He HAS to be a lock for the HOF

TheKittle
10-26-2008, 01:25 PM
I just looked at Chipper's numbers. WOW, he is amazing. I never really paid attention to him because he has been in the NL for his whole career and I am only 20, so I don't really remember his golden years

But at .310 AVG and 408 HRs and over 1300 RBIs at 3rd base?! He HAS to be a lock for the HOF


He missed one entire year due to injury. And has been really the only hitter on the Braves in recent years. So he's a lock. Interesting that Chipper wasn't even considered the best player in his draft.

Oblong
10-26-2008, 02:49 PM
One guy I always struggle with accepting that he'll be a HOFer is Jeff Kent. I'm not saying he's undeserving, I can't argue that point. It just doesn't seem right. Maybe it's the stache.

BleacherBandit
10-26-2008, 03:20 PM
One guy I always struggle with accepting that he'll be a HOFer is Jeff Kent. I'm not saying he's undeserving, I can't argue that point. It just doesn't seem right. Maybe it's the stache.
Rollie Fingers is a Hall of Famer. He has/had a terrible moustache!

hellview
10-26-2008, 05:14 PM
One guy I never thought about till I looked up his numbers was Jorge Posada. But he's right up there for catchers when you look up his stats.

eastchicagosoxfan
10-26-2008, 07:22 PM
One guy I never thought about till I looked up his numbers was Jorge Posada. But he's right up there for catchers when you look up his stats.
I had a hunch to include him on my original list, and was just too lazy to look at his stats. I didn't mention him because this is a tough crowd.