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View Full Version : Interesting way to assess playoffs right now


Frater Perdurabo
10-04-2008, 02:29 PM
Home field advantage has been significant in 2008. If we believe home field advantage remains important, then one could possibly rank the probability of World Series victory in this order:

1. Rays (don't need any road wins)
2. Red Sox (need only 1 road win)
3. White Sox (need 1-2 road wins)
4. Phillies (need 1-2 road wins)
5. Angels (need 2 road wins)
6. Dodgers (need 2 road wins)
7. Cubs (need 3 road wins)
8. Brewers (need 3 road wins)

Let me put this another way:

If the Sox can defend their home field, and win just ONE game in Tampa, and provided that Boston completes the upset over the Angels, I think we must consider the White Sox to be the favorites to win the World Series.

:bandance:

chisoxfanatic
10-04-2008, 02:36 PM
Home field advantage has been significant in 2008. If we believe home field advantage remains important, then one could possibly rank the probability of World Series victory in this order:

1. Rays (don't need any road wins)
2. Red Sox (need only 1 road win)
3. White Sox (need 1-2 road wins)
4. Phillies (need 1-2 road wins)
5. Angels (need 2 road wins)
6. Dodgers (need 2 road wins)
7. Cubs (need 3 road wins)
8. Brewers (need 3 road wins)

Let me put this another way:

If the Sox can defend their home field, and win just ONE game in Tampa, and provided that Boston completes the upset over the Angels, I think we must consider the White Sox to be the favorites to win the World Series.

:bandance:

There's a big fallacy in your argument, and that is based on how Boston's stuck it to the Angels two straight in their home ballpark. If we were to face Boston in the ALCS, there's no doubt we'd be the underdogs even though we'd have home field advantage. Of the 8 teams, there are only 2 that I could see giving Boston fits: the Rays and Dodgers.

Billy Ashley
10-04-2008, 02:44 PM
If the Red Sox beat LAA and face the White Sox in the ALCS the Red Sox will likely be a 52-60% favorite over the White Sox depending on how the rest of the ALDS unfolds.

If hypothetically, Boston sweeps they'll be able to line up their rotation as Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka for the first three games of the ALCS. That would be huge for them and would likely push them to around the 60% mark. The longer the series lasts, the closer the odds get. During the season, Boston was better at scoring runs than then White Sox while also being better than preventing runs. They did all this while every starter on their team outside of Lester missed significant time with injury and without a month of Drew, Lowell or Ortiz. They're probably the best team in baseball given their run differential and what they've had to overcome in terms of injuries this season.

That said, like I've been arguing since the post season started. An elite team against a merely "good" team isn't that huge of a favorite. A play off series is such a small sample anything can happen. Should the White Sox play anyone in the play offs, they'll never be heavy favorites or heavy underdogs... that's just not how short series baseball works. The same is true of the Dodgers, the Rays, The Red Sox and the Phillies.

Frater Perdurabo
10-04-2008, 02:47 PM
There's a big fallacy in your argument, and that is based on how Boston's stuck it to the Angels two straight in their home ballpark. If we were to face Boston in the ALCS, there's no doubt we'd be the underdogs even though we'd have home field advantage. Of the 8 teams, there are only 2 that I could see giving Boston fits: the Rays and Dodgers.

Why do you have to rain on my parade? Are you a dark cloud? :tongue:

Seriously, you are right, the Red Sox would be favored over the White Sox. But with home-field advantage, I like our chances against Boston.

I think the Angels (and Cubs) have coasted for the past month and are having trouble getting it going again.

Frater Perdurabo
10-04-2008, 02:55 PM
If the Red Sox beat LAA and face the White Sox in the ALCS the Red Sox will likely be a 52-60% favorite over the White Sox depending on how the rest of the ALDS unfolds.

If hypothetically, Boston sweeps they'll be able to line up their rotation as Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka for the first three games of the ALCS. That would be huge for them and would likely push them to around the 60% mark. The longer the series lasts, the closer the odds get. During the season, Boston was better at scoring runs than then White Sox while also being better than preventing runs. They did all this while every starter on their team outside of Lester missed significant time with injury and without a month of Drew, Lowell or Ortiz. They're probably the best team in baseball given their run differential and what they've had to overcome in terms of injuries this season.

That said, like I've been arguing since the post season started. An elite team against a merely "good" team isn't that huge of a favorite. A play off series is such a small sample anything can happen. Should the White Sox play anyone in the play offs, they'll never be heavy favorites or heavy underdogs... that's just not how short series baseball works. The same is true of the Dodgers, the Rays, The Red Sox and the Phillies.

You are right, of course.

All I'm saying is that the Sox have to win two games at home just to get to Game 5 in Tampa. But if they do, they will have had to have been hot just to get to Tampa, and Buehrle would be pitching Game 5 on normal rest. All the pressure would be on the Rays in that situation.

So if the Sox do manage to get back to Tampa, I like their chances of winning Game 5. If they win Game 5, it means that they continued to be hot. Therefore, if they win Game 5, they would come back to the Cell on a hot streak, with Danks pitching Game 1, followed by Floyd in Game 2, and Buehrle in Game 3 in Boston, all on normal rest.

Win these next two games at home, and all of a sudden things look good for the White Sox.

:bandance:

Billy Ashley
10-04-2008, 03:02 PM
I mentioned in another thread somewhere here that Rob Neyer believes of the teams down 0-2 the only one with a flicker of hope happens to be the White Sox. Danks starting game three is huge, he was maybe the fourth best pitcher in the American League this year- the kid should he stay healthy (And this is a huge if, as with any young pitcher) could very well be the staple of the White Sox 1 o 2 spot for years to come.

LoveYourSuit
10-04-2008, 03:21 PM
Home field advantage has been significant in 2008. If we believe home field advantage remains important, then one could possibly rank the probability of World Series victory in this order:

1. Rays (don't need any road wins)
2. Red Sox (need only 1 road win)
3. White Sox (need 1-2 road wins)




Just right there your arguement is false

If the Angels come back to win their sereis, the Rays would need to win at least 1 raod game to beat ANA in the ALCS.

Frater Perdurabo
10-04-2008, 04:33 PM
Just right there your arguement is false

If the Angels come back to win their sereis, the Rays would need to win at least 1 raod game to beat ANA in the ALCS.

My bad. The situation is predicated on Boston beating the Angels, which I think will happen.

munchman33
10-04-2008, 07:42 PM
If the Sox can defend their home field, and win just ONE game in Tampa,

People please stop getting ahead of yourselves. It's going to take an immense effort by all our guys to gut out two victories HERE against Tampa. People are so quick to forget the series they played in Chicago, where we were lucky to escape with one win.

I think we can win tomorrow. Let's start with that.