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TommyJohn
10-01-2008, 08:06 PM
...when Baseball Prospectus predicted the Sox would go 72-90? Paul Konerko cracked wise, Ozzie Guillen made fun of them, and the White Sox went out and finished the season at 72-90. Remember the fine folks at BP writing a gloating article titled "Dear Ozzie: We're sorry we were right"? I never read it, but the headline said it all.

Well now 2008 has ended. BP predicted the White Sox to go what, 78-84 or 77-85? I know it was something along those lines. Will we now see a humble, contrite admission of error with the headline "Dear Ozzie: We're Sorry, we were wrong"? Will they cut themselves a slice of humble pie? Or are they too busy ramming a bunch of ALDS stats down everyone's throats while predicting a Rays sweep?

WhiteSox5187
10-01-2008, 08:10 PM
Well...I think they have yet to apologize for prediciting a 72-90 finish in '05, so it will probably take them awhile to get around to apologizing for '08. Personally I don't give a rat's ass what BP thinks, just ****ing win!

DSpivack
10-01-2008, 08:10 PM
BP will never admit they were wrong.

They're most famous around these parts for saying the Sox had an 89% chance of winning the division after they already clinched in 2005, or something to that effect.

I don't think sabermetrics is an inherently bad way to look at sports, just different, but it's more the know-it-all smugness of those goofs that I can't stand.

turners56
10-01-2008, 08:11 PM
Well...I think they have yet to apologize for prediciting a 72-90 finish in '05, so it will probably take them awhile to get around to apologizing for '08. Personally I don't give a rat's ass what BP thinks, just ****ing win!

They predicted us to go 72-90 in '05? OMG, that's just sad...

I don't know why nobody recognized our pitching staff...

I was at least optimistic for around 85 wins that year at worst.

TommyJohn
10-01-2008, 08:12 PM
BP will never admit they were wrong.

They're most famous around these parts for saying the Sox had an 89% chance of winning the division after they already clinched in 2005, or something to that effect.

I don't think sabermetrics is an inherently bad way to look at sports, just different, but it's more the know-it-all smugness of those goofs that I can't stand.

Bingo!

Lip Man 1
10-01-2008, 08:58 PM
I e-mailed Dave Van Dyke of the Tribune about this. He had that big story in the spring on it.

Still waiting for an answer...LOL

LIp

Eddo144
10-01-2008, 08:59 PM
Yeah, BP is pretty arrogant for a sports site, but why should they have to apologize for a poor projection or prediction? When the underdog Giants won the Super Bowl, should Las Vegas have apologized for naming the Patriots the favorite.

Get over yourselves, people. BP was wrong. BP is arrogant. The Sox still won the division this year and the World Series in 2008.

I suppose BP should run 30 different projections every year so that they can make sure they get it right, though.

Optipessimism
10-01-2008, 09:11 PM
Yeah, BP is pretty arrogant for a sports site, but why should they have to apologize for a poor projection or prediction? When the underdog Giants won the Super Bowl, should Las Vegas have apologized for naming the Patriots the favorite.

Get over yourselves, people. BP was wrong. BP is arrogant. The Sox still won the division this year and the World Series in 2008.

I suppose BP should run 30 different projections every year so that they can make sure they get it right, though.
They should run zero projections every year since they're obviously not very good at it.

DSpivack
10-01-2008, 09:15 PM
Yeah, BP is pretty arrogant for a sports site, but why should they have to apologize for a poor projection or prediction? When the underdog Giants won the Super Bowl, should Las Vegas have apologized for naming the Patriots the favorite.

Get over yourselves, people. BP was wrong. BP is arrogant. The Sox still won the division this year and the World Series in 2008.

I suppose BP should run 30 different projections every year so that they can make sure they get it right, though.

They shouldn't have to, but when they pat themselves over the back for their statistical projections being right, they should also tell you how much they're wrong. They pride themselves on numbers answering every question; Vegas just settles on a number for a market to bet on.

asindc
10-01-2008, 09:18 PM
Yeah, BP is pretty arrogant for a sports site, but why should they have to apologize for a poor projection or prediction? When the underdog Giants won the Super Bowl, should Las Vegas have apologized for naming the Patriots the favorite.

Get over yourselves, people. BP was wrong. BP is arrogant. The Sox still won the division this year and the World Series in 2008.

I suppose BP should run 30 different projections every year so that they can make sure they get it right, though.

When comparing BP projections to Vegas odds, you are comparing apples and oranges. BP projections are based on stats crunching and tends to de-emphasize "subjective" real player and team observation. This is why so many baseball fans, including myself, are critical of them. Vegas odds, on the other hand, are designed to draw betting money to the "losing" side of the odds.

TDog
10-01-2008, 09:31 PM
Yeah, BP is pretty arrogant for a sports site, but why should they have to apologize for a poor projection or prediction? When the underdog Giants won the Super Bowl, should Las Vegas have apologized for naming the Patriots the favorite.

Get over yourselves, people. BP was wrong. BP is arrogant. The Sox still won the division this year and the World Series in 2008.

I suppose BP should run 30 different projections every year so that they can make sure they get it right, though.

If bookmakers in Las Vegas made the wrong team the underdog before the Super Bowl, their apologies would have been made by paying off the bets from people who put money down in contradiction of their favored line. The fact is, the line isn't a prediction, but a point at which they believe they can profit by attracting people to bet against the losing team.

BP make predictions. It makes its projections based on peculiar theories. Apparently, it gloats when their projections are accurate. If then when they are not they never speak of them again, their projects have no more credibility than those you see on the cover to the supermarket checkout tablids.

hawkjt
10-01-2008, 09:35 PM
In all honesty, I was very discouraged with the Sox coming out of spring training in 05 and 08. I was very optimistic in 06 and 07.

I am as bad as BP. I do not wager on baseball.

DSpivack
10-01-2008, 10:01 PM
If bookmakers in Las Vegas made the wrong team the underdog before the Super Bowl, their apologies would have been made by paying off the bets from people who put money down in contradiction of their favored line. The fact is, the line isn't a prediction, but a point at which they believe they can profit by attracting people to bet against the losing team.

BP make predictions. It makes its projections based on peculiar theories. Apparently, it gloats when their projections are accurate. If then when they are not they never speak of them again, their projects have no more credibility than those you see on the cover to the supermarket checkout tablids.

How accurate are Vegas lines? I would wonder if they would be even more accurate than BP, as BP has nothing at stake to be right or wrong, while Vegas has millions [billions?] at stake.

Eddo144
10-01-2008, 10:12 PM
They shouldn't have to, but when they pat themselves over the back for their statistical projections being right, they should also tell you how much they're wrong. They pride themselves on numbers answering every question; Vegas just settles on a number for a market to bet on.
Eh, wouldn't you expect a for-profit organization to highlight their success and downplay their failures? I'm sure Pepsi and Coke don't draw attention to any taste tests they fail, why should BP hurt their sales by drawing attention to their mistakes? If you ran your own business, would you publicly apologize every time you promised a client something but failed to deliver? (Note I said publicly apologize - there's nothing wrong with apologizing directly to the client.)

And yeah, Vegas has payouts at stake, that was a bad comparison.

DSpivack
10-01-2008, 10:16 PM
Eh, wouldn't you expect a for-profit organization to highlight their success and downplay their failures? I'm sure Pepsi and Coke don't draw attention to any taste tests they fail, why should BP hurt their sales by drawing attention to their mistakes? If you ran your own business, would you publicly apologize every time you promised a client something but failed to deliver? (Note I said publicly apologize - there's nothing wrong with apologizing directly to the client.)

And yeah, Vegas has payouts at stake, that was a bad comparison.

The difference is the product involved. BP sells you their esoteric baseball statistics and claims to be experts on the sport; they are selling 'knowledge', not a tangible product. I don't think it a bad comparison if a market, like Vegas, ends up having more accurate predictions than self-called experts.

AZChiSoxFan
10-01-2008, 10:18 PM
Well...I think they have yet to apologize for prediciting a 72-90 finish in '05, so it will probably take them awhile to get around to apologizing for '08. Personally I don't give a rat's ass what BP thinks, just ****ing win!

I'm with you. The folks at BP are a bunch of tools.

Eddo144
10-01-2008, 10:54 PM
The difference is the product involved. BP sells you their esoteric baseball statistics and claims to be experts on the sport; they are selling 'knowledge', not a tangible product. I don't think it a bad comparison if a market, like Vegas, ends up having more accurate predictions than self-called experts.
Still, the onus is on the buyer to do their homework before paying for the product, regardless of the tangibility of said product. BP's goal is to make money with their knowledge; publicly humiliating themselves is a rather poor business model, don't you think?

Iwritecode
10-03-2008, 11:12 AM
publicly humiliating themselves is a rather poor business model, don't you think?

They need to stop making predictions then because I would guess it's pretty humiliating to only be right once every couple of years...

rainbow6
10-03-2008, 11:47 AM
The 'Deadly Accurate' (as it says on the front cover) Pecota projections for Danks, Beurhle and Floyd amounted to 19 total wins between the three of them.

Oh, and they projected good things from Javy this year..

I guess I'm the idiot because I buy the book.

MISoxfan
10-03-2008, 12:26 PM
Still, the onus is on the buyer to do their homework before paying for the product, regardless of the tangibility of said product. BP's goal is to make money with their knowledge; publicly humiliating themselves is a rather poor business model, don't you think?

Nobody actually expects them to do this. We're just gloating and making fun of BP. Maybe they should put more effort into not delivering a poor product and less time worrying about their business model.

EndemicSox
10-03-2008, 03:23 PM
BP makes for great bathroom reading material, nothing more, nothing less. There are stat-heads who produce very accurate projections, but these guys don't release their stuff to the public and are usually on the payroll of clubs like the Red Sox/A's/etc...

Eddo144
10-03-2008, 03:36 PM
They need to stop making predictions then because I would guess it's pretty humiliating to only be right once every couple of years...
They make, literally, hundreds of projections and predictions for each year. They've been wrong on the Sox a few times, and they are "right once every couple of years"?

Look, I don't really like BP, either. But you are all just displaying irrational hatred because they had the audacity to predict bad things for the Sox, and then the Sox surprised everyone.

Iwritecode
10-03-2008, 04:20 PM
They make, literally, hundreds of projections and predictions for each year. They've been wrong on the Sox a few times, and they are "right once every couple of years"?

Look, I don't really like BP, either. But you are all just displaying irrational hatred because they had the audacity to predict bad things for the Sox, and then the Sox surprised everyone.

If your making that many guesses each year, you're bound to be right on a few of them. :shrug:

What it boils down to is that's all predictions really are is guesses. I could get a monkey to throw darts at a wall to predict the final standings and probably come up with something pretty close.

I don't hate BP for predicting bad things for the Sox. I, like others, just think it's interesting that the one time they predict the Sox record exactly, they brag about it but every other year when they are nowhere close, you don't hear a peep out of them.

Demafrost
10-03-2008, 08:50 PM
I think BP is too busy bragging that they predicted the Rays would win 88 games this year to admit they were wrong about the White Sox.