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JungleJimR
09-23-2008, 04:30 PM
I am somewhat ambivalent about posting this thread but it seems that since many Sox fans are putting some heavy demands on this most important series, I thought that some simple odds are in order. Some will be sobered, and, hopefully, some will be relieved. Some will not agree with anything here, others might find it interesting. If in the end we get a laugh or two, remain friends in the spirit of the Right Sox nation, and perhaps learn a little about probability and statistics, then I will be pleased.

I seriously don't think that the Sox will be favored in this Minn series, even in the Floyd game on Thursday. In trying to establish a reasonable probability for a Sox win in each game we could look at Sox away - 45% (sample size of 79 games), or Dome visitors - 35%(over 75 games). We could also weigh in pitching matchups since many, including I, think that this is perhaps the most important variable. But when weighing in Vazquez 5-8 road vs Baker 3-1 home = 33%; Beurhle 4-8 vs Blackburn 7-3 = 36%; and Floyd 7-5 vs Slowey 7-4 = 45%, one comes in well below 40% on average. I will give the benefit of doubt to Sox fans and to the fact that there will be incredible pressure on the Twins. Let's, for just discussion, settle on 40% for each game. After all, although both teams have not played particularly well down the stretch the Twins have won some very important games lately, 2 of 4 in TB, and Friday's monumental game, which hopefully will not go down as the one that turned the season around.

(For your average polyanna, usually including me, I included the P effects of a 45% P for a Sox win in the comments section of the following table).

-----------------------------------------Comment/Espected WSI
For Sox winning -------Probability-------- chatter tone
at least 1 game -----------78%----------- Minimum outcome for most/some extremely frustrated; most resigned to grinding it out at home(84% for 45%/gm P)

at least 2 games ----------35%----------- Clinch at home/ many of us trying to get to Chgo (43%)

all 3 games---------------- 6%------------ Sorry to expose remoteness/WSI under authority of new, congressionally apprvd bubble busting law put into effect today(9%)

none---------------------- 22%----------- Not so remote / Calls for Ozzie's resignation;WSI shut dwn for foul language;suicides on s-side dramatically incr. (17%)

after 1st gm win/ ----------64%----------- Importance of winning 1st gm
one more win

after 1st gm loss/---------- 64%----------- While win in gm 1 important -its not critical
one more win

win only one gm -----------43%------------ If its the 1st - major frustration- lamenting over lost opports
--------------------------------------------If its the last - Gavin is awarded MVP, argubly, he already is!


So, good luck to us all - its been good so far, and its simply wonderful to be in the hunt in the last week of baseball - really nothing like it.
Peace.

Chez
09-23-2008, 04:39 PM
I was told there would be no math on WSI.

Eddo144
09-23-2008, 05:01 PM
Nice post JungleJimR. I think a 40% chance of each game is reasonable.

I like how you've presented, in a straightforward manner, that 40% for each individual game does not equal 40% to win at least one game.

I think that sounds about right. Roughly, we have a roughly 1-in-4 chance of being swept, which sounds about right. Therefore, we have a 3-in-4 chance of remaining in first place after the series, which also sounds appropriate.

We have a 1-in-20 chance of sweeping and clinching in the baggie.

There's about a 1-in-3 chance we get the two wins we need to guarantee a 163rd game.

BadBobbyJenks
09-23-2008, 05:07 PM
Well the Twins are -160 for the series in Vegas and the Sox are +130


Vazquez is +125 tonight.
Buehrle is even
No line on Floyd yet.

We are so winning this series

jabrch
09-23-2008, 05:09 PM
72% of all statistics, including these, are made up.

Noneck
09-23-2008, 05:14 PM
Well the Twins are -160 for the series in Vegas and the Sox are +130


Vazquez is +125 tonight.
Buehrle is even
No line on Floyd yet.

We are so winning this series

Jump on that series price then and hook it up with each game in parlays. It will turn into a sweet series treat.

BadBobbyJenks
09-23-2008, 05:19 PM
Jump on that series price then and hook it up with each game in parlays. It will turn into a sweet series treat.

I've got the series for sure.

If gambling were legal:wink: I would be parlaying Javy and former Sox pitcher Fabulous Freddy Garcia as a double dog parlay.

Eddo144
09-23-2008, 05:23 PM
I've got the series for sure.

If gambling were legal:wink: I would be parlaying Javy and former Sox pitcher Fabulous Freddy Garcia as a double dog parlay.
Gambling is 100% legal, if done through the proper channels. (Sorry, the phrase you used is a pet peeve of mine.)

JungleJimR
09-24-2008, 09:47 AM
Nice post JungleJimR. I think a 40% chance of each game is reasonable.

I like how you've presented, in a straightforward manner, that 40% for each individual game does not equal 40% to win at least one game.

I think that sounds about right. Roughly, we have a roughly 1-in-4 chance of being swept, which sounds about right. Therefore, we have a 3-in-4 chance of remaining in first place after the series, which also sounds appropriate.

We have a 1-in-20 chance of sweeping and clinching in the baggie.

There's about a 1-in-3 chance we get the two wins we need to guarantee a 163rd game.


I am glad you appreciate it.
Thanks,
Jim

JungleJimR
09-25-2008, 09:43 AM
I am somewhat ambivalent about posting this thread but it seems that since many Sox fans are putting some heavy demands on this most important series


-----------------------------------------Comment/Espected WSI
For Sox winning -------Probability-------- chatter tone
at least 1 game -----------78%----------- Minimum outcome for most/some extremely frustrated; most resigned to grinding it out at home(84% for 45%/gm P)

at least 2 games ----------35%----------- Clinch at home/ many of us trying to get to Chgo (43%)

all 3 games---------------- 6%------------ Sorry to expose remoteness/WSI under authority of new, congressionally apprvd bubble busting law put into effect today(9%)

none---------------------- 22%----------- Not so remote / Calls for Ozzie's resignation;WSI shut dwn for foul language;suicides on s-side dramatically incr. (17%)

after 1st gm win/ ----------64%----------- Importance of winning 1st gm
one more win

after 1st gm loss/---------- 64%----------- While win in gm 1 important -its not critical
one more win

win only one gm -----------43%------------ If its the 1st - major frustration- lamenting over lost opports
--------------------------------------------If its the last - Gavin is awarded MVP, argubly, he already is!


So, good luck to us all - its been good so far, and its simply wonderful to be in the hunt in the last week of baseball - really nothing like it.
Peace.


Let us all pray that it is the latter highlighted case, and not the former.

Peace.