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View Full Version : Can Alexei win the AL batting title ?


NLaloosh
08-26-2008, 09:12 AM
I think he has a decent chance. As long as he stays healthy he should qualify with enough at bats. And, right now, he's only 7 points behind the leader.

Oh, and he's red hot and seems to be getting better.

How cool would that be?

cleanwsox
08-26-2008, 09:21 AM
I think he has a decent chance. As long as he stays healthy he should qualify with enough at bats. And, right now, he's only 7 points behind the leader.

Oh, and he's red hot and seems to be getting better.

How cool would that be?

Good shot if he stays hot considering he has fewer at-bats then a lot of the guys he's chasing. Easier to make that average go up.

Definitely would help his ROY credentials.

KyWhiSoxFan
08-26-2008, 09:38 AM
He does not have enough plate appearances at this point to qualify for the official batting crown.

That said, I don't know the exact qualifications, but because he did not play much the first month, he is still behind in qualifying plate appearances. Last time I looked, about a week ago, he was about 30 plate appearances short of qualifying to be included.

If he plays every game from now till the end of the year, can he get enough plate appearances to qualify?

102605
08-26-2008, 09:39 AM
Imagine what his stats would look like if he didn't sit the bench for awhile and also hit around .100 in his first 40 AB's.

eriqjaffe
08-26-2008, 09:41 AM
He does not have enough plate appearances at this point to qualify for the official batting crown.

That said, I don't know the exact qualifications, but because he did not play much the first month, he is still behind in qualifying plate appearances. Last time I looked, about a week ago, he was about 30 plate appearances short of qualifying to be included.

If he plays every game from now till the end of the year, can he get enough plate appearances to qualify?He needs to have 3.1 PA per the teams' played games. Assuming the Sox play all 162, he'll need to have 502 PAs to qualify. He has 384 through yesterday, so it's kind of a longshot.

Hitting low in the order for much of the year hasn't helped those chances, either.

UofCSoxFan
08-26-2008, 10:19 AM
He needs to have 3.1 PA per the teams' played games. Assuming the Sox play all 162, he'll need to have 502 PAs to qualify. He has 384 through yesterday, so it's kind of a longshot.

Hitting low in the order for much of the year hasn't helped those chances, either.

The key thing is only plate appearances are the criteria, not at-bats(although for Alexei the distinction isn't a big one).

As has been said, Alexei has 384 PA after the August 25 game and has played in 104 games. That equates to an average 3.69 PA per game he has played (this number would be higher if you isolated for games in which he has played the entire game). Assuming that 3.69 plate appearances per game, Alexei would need 32 games to hit 502 on the nose. The Sox currently have 31 games left.

So basically, Alexei would likely have to play the vast majority of the innings remaining on our schedule.

If we assume that he gets 4 PAs per game that he starts, that would mean he'd have to start 29 of the 31 remaining games (and pick up 2 more PAs throughout the rest of the year). The thing Alexei has going for him is that he doesn't get many days off and often moves over to SS when Carbrera sits. However, with Crede back, this gives an opportunity for Uribe to spot Alexei as 2nd from time to time. Another thing that could hurt Alexei is that if we clinch with 2 or 3 games to go, Ozzie might rest the starters like he did in 2005. Conversely, a one game playoff for a spot would count in regular season stats, including the required plate appearances (he would need 505 appearances, but one more game to get them).

Bottom line, it will be really close. I would predict Alexei plays 90% of our remaining games (that's 28 of 31). To get the required 118 PAs he needs, that would be 4.21 PAs/game. Again hard but not impossible.

voodoochile
08-26-2008, 10:20 AM
He does not have enough plate appearances at this point to qualify for the official batting crown.

That said, I don't know the exact qualifications, but because he did not play much the first month, he is still behind in qualifying plate appearances. Last time I looked, about a week ago, he was about 30 plate appearances short of qualifying to be included.

If he plays every game from now till the end of the year, can he get enough plate appearances to qualify?

Should be enough. IIRC, It's 3.1 PA/G and he should average closer to 4 very easily. That's .9*31 = 28 extra AB toward that 30. So, he'd need to play every game and have a couple of 5 PA games and he should be fine.

doublem23
08-26-2008, 10:21 AM
Since taking over as the starting second baseman on May 16, he's hitting:

.329/.346/.536, 105 H, 319 AB, 17 D, 2 T, 15 HR, 55 RBI

What a find he's been.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?share=1&n1=ramiral03&year=2008&t=b#19:103:sum

voodoochile
08-26-2008, 10:22 AM
He needs to have 3.1 PA per the teams' played games. Assuming the Sox play all 162, he'll need to have 502 PAs to qualify. He has 384 through yesterday, so it's kind of a longshot.

Hitting low in the order for much of the year hasn't helped those chances, either.

You beat me to it, but that's less than 4 PA/G for the final 31 games (4 X 31 = 124, 124 + 384 = 506). Assuming he plays all 31 (and he should) he'll have a good chance to qualify, IMO.

doublem23
08-26-2008, 10:26 AM
You beat me to it, but that's less than 4 PA/G for the final 31 games (4 X 31 = 124, 124 + 384 = 506). Assuming he plays all 31 (and he should) he'll have a good chance to qualify, IMO.

All there is is the sticky situation of his batting average being 14 points behind the league leader. :tongue:

voodoochile
08-26-2008, 10:33 AM
All there is is the sticky situation of his batting average being 14 points behind the league leader. :tongue:

Details... details...

I actually don't expect him to win the title - .314 seems to be about his max so far, but if he qualifies, finishing top 5 would be a great rookie season.

skottyj242
08-26-2008, 10:36 AM
He's .11 points behind?

doublem23
08-26-2008, 10:39 AM
He's .11 points behind?

Oops... I guess BR hasn't updated their page yet. :redface:

:scratch: Awfully late in the morning for them.

LoveYourSuit
08-26-2008, 11:00 AM
Imagine us finishing with both the HR champ and BA champ in the same season. Both were under the radar pick ups not making more than $1.5 million combined.

But the experts will give Shapiro the Executive of the Year some way some how :rolleyes:

UofCSoxFan
08-26-2008, 11:13 AM
For some more fun, I decided to take a look at what it would take for Alexei to get his average up to .325, the level of the current leader:

Let's assume Alexei gets 118 plate appearances (the minimum needed to even qualify). Thus far his ABs to PAs ratio is slightly more than 95% (i.e. he walks or has a sacrifice about 5% of the time).

Given this ratio, that means he would have 112 more ABs, giving him 478 ABs for the year. To hit .325, Alexei would need 155 hits on the year. He currently has 115. Therefor Alexei would need to go 40 for 112 to get up to .325 (which may or may not be enough).

That is a .357 clip the rest of the year. Certainly a tall order, but who knows. The fact that we are discussing this shows how far Alexei has come. Remarkable.

Lundind1
08-26-2008, 11:46 AM
I would lean towards Alexei winning a Silver Slugger and ROY.

areilly
08-26-2008, 11:49 AM
The fact that we are discussing this shows how far Alexei has come. Remarkable.

Agreed. It's amazing how he not only adjusted so well, but so quickly on top of that (even after that brutal start).

Jerome
08-26-2008, 11:50 AM
The fact that we are discussing this shows how far Alexei has come. Remarkable.

yeah talk about far exceeding expectations

voodoochile
08-26-2008, 11:53 AM
I would lean towards Alexei winning a Silver Slugger and ROY.

What about a gold glove?

WSox597
08-26-2008, 11:57 AM
What about a gold glove?

Naw, the way things usually go he would need 30 HRs and 100 RBIs to even be considered for a Gold Glove.

Fielding well is optional these days. :D:

Lundind1
08-26-2008, 12:03 PM
Naw, the way things usually go he would need 30 HRs and 100 RBIs to even be considered for a Gold Glove.

Fielding well is optional these days. :D:

Is that the Gold Glove or the Silver Slugger? The Slugger is offensive in that position. The Gold Glove is Defensive leader in Fielding percentage

Tragg
08-26-2008, 12:04 PM
Yikes wrong thread - sorry.

Lundind1
08-26-2008, 12:07 PM
Ramirez having an almost .100 BA after the first month. What a turn around. I did see him hit the Walgreens sign one afternoon early in the season, so there were some flashes of greatness early.

And to think, Rongey wanted him to go to 3A ball for this year. HA. But it isn't the first or last time the sports guys were wrong about a Sox player.

Stick with em' and they will show you if they want to be here or not.

TDog
08-26-2008, 12:33 PM
Since taking over as the starting second baseman on May 16, he's hitting:

.329/.346/.536, 105 H, 319 AB, 17 D, 2 T, 15 HR, 55 RBI ...

In the May 16 game in San Francisco, Ramirez hit a seventh-inning two-run homer in a 2-0 win. It was his first home run of the year, and the power was surprising considering his size. The way Ramirez is playing now, it is possible he could lead AL rookies in home runs and batting average. Ramirez finished the May 16 game with a .191 batting average. He has gone from looking hopeless at the plate to hitting the ball occasionally hard into the defense to being a dangerous hitter.

In my head, I figured Ramirez would need four plate appearances per game to reach the 502 he needs. He would have to go on a real tear. He would need more hits than the people in front of him, and because he doesn't walk much, that would be amplified.

If he does get very hot and passes the other leaders, Ramirez might not even need 502 plate appearances to win the batting crown. If he had just 500 or 499, and figuring he would have had hitless at bats to make up the 502 appearances would still keep his batting average above all the other qualifiers in the league, he would win the batting crown. That is provided for in Section 10 of the major league rules, and it was discussed with respect to Rod Carew in 1969. In his breakout season, he managed 504 plate appearances. Had he come up four less times, he still would have been crowned batting champion.

If Ramirez leads off every game for the rest of the season, he should get at least four appearances per game (barring the Sox are victims of any losses in which they only send 27 men to the plate or are victorious at home in a game where they score three or fewer runs and leave no one on base). The reality is, he will need at least a couple of days off to remain sharp.

Also, at this point it appears that Ramirez has found it. He found it when the weather heated up. As the weather cools down in September, I hope he doesn't lose it.

The batting crown is a longshot for Ramirez, but he is clearly having an incredible rookie season.

doublem23
08-26-2008, 12:34 PM
And to think, Rongey wanted him to go to 3A ball for this year. HA. But it isn't the first or last time the sports guys were wrong about a Sox player.


A lot of people wanted him to get some cuts in at AAA in April and May.

munchman33
08-26-2008, 12:41 PM
With the way the offense has clicked, as well as the number of teams bringing up minor league talent next month, Alexei will easily reach the plate appearances he needs. The only question is whether he'll get enough hits to pass up the competition.

eriqjaffe
08-26-2008, 12:45 PM
And to think, Rongey wanted him to go to 3A ball for this year.To be fair, most people consider the Cuban league to be roughly equivalent to AA ball, much like how the Japanese leagues are considered to be somewhere between major league and AAA caliber.

I was one of those people who, early on, felt that Ramirez had no business being on the major league roster, but I am more than happy to admit that I was wrong.

munchman33
08-26-2008, 12:52 PM
To be fair, most people consider the Cuban league to be roughly equivalent to AA ball, much like how the Japanese leagues are considered to be somewhere between major league and AAA caliber.

I was one of those people who, early on, felt that Ramirez had no business being on the major league roster, but I am more than happy to admit that I was wrong.

Actually, you were right. He just adapted faster because of his advanced skill set. But he certainly had no business in the majors the first six weeks of the season.

SOX ADDICT '73
08-26-2008, 01:17 PM
Actually, you were right. He just adapted faster because of his advanced skill set. But he certainly had no business in the majors the first six weeks of the season.
I can't remember the exact details or even the opponent, but early on Alexei had one of the worst games I'd ever seen. He struck out with the bases loaded to end the second inning, again with runners on second and third and two out in the fourth, and I want to say he grounded out with the bases loaded to end the sixth as well. Needless to say, it ended in a Sox loss, and I said aloud to my friend, "Well, I think it's about time for the Alexei Ramirez experiment to be over."

I've never been so glad to be wrong about something!

Optipessimism
08-26-2008, 01:51 PM
I can't remember the exact details or even the opponent, but early on Alexei had one of the worst games I'd ever seen. He struck out with the bases loaded to end the second inning, again with runners on second and third and two out in the fourth, and I want to say he grounded out with the bases loaded to end the sixth as well. Needless to say, it ended in a Sox loss, and I said aloud to my friend, "Well, I think it's about time for the Alexei Ramirez experiment to be over."

I've never been so glad to be wrong about something!
I think most of us were terribly wrong about at least one thing.

Personally, I was horribly wrong about:

-Alexei needing to go to the minors
-Floyd becoming a very good pitcher
-Danks putting it together this soon
-Quentin needing one healthy year before he could start flashing his potential
-The Sox not contending this year
-Detroit's record
-Cleveland's record
-Jerry Owens finding his way onto this team some way or another
-Uribe being garbage
-Toby Hall being a waste of money
-Swisher (which is the only disappointment so far)

jabrch
08-26-2008, 02:02 PM
A lot of people wanted him to get some cuts in at AAA in April and May.

I think most people wanted him to play everyday - whereever he was going. That was my opinion. At the time, he didn't look like he was going to take 2B from Uribe, so AAA, preparing to be the starting SS next year, looked like the best bet. I'm glad Guillen and Williams stuck with what they believed in despite the noise from fans and the media.

Mohoney
08-26-2008, 02:59 PM
Another thing that could hurt Alexei is that if we clinch with 2 or 3 games to go, Ozzie might rest the starters like he did in 2005.

Ozzie would never bench him if he had a legitimate shot to win a batting title.

UofCSoxFan
08-26-2008, 03:09 PM
Ozzie would never bench him if he had a legitimate shot to win a batting title.

You're probably right. However, I would hope if Ozzie felt like Alexei would be better in the playoffs with a few days off he would rest him ahead of personal achievements. We likely won't have that luxury anyway so the point may be moot.

It is very encouraging to me that Alexei is getting stronger as the year goes on. You always worry about international players, who play shorter seasons (I'm assuming this is the case in Cuba), wearing down as the season comes to an end and as teams build a scouting book on them.

turners56
08-26-2008, 03:14 PM
I think he has a decent chance. As long as he stays healthy he should qualify with enough at bats. And, right now, he's only 7 points behind the leader.

Oh, and he's red hot and seems to be getting better.

How cool would that be?

He still needs 3.1 PAs per game in order to be on the list. I don't even know if he meets that requirement yet.

eriqjaffe
08-26-2008, 03:25 PM
He still needs 3.1 PAs per game in order to be on the list. I don't even know if he meets that requirement yet.Nope. 384 PAs in 131 games is 2.93PA/G, not enough to qualify.

BRDSR
08-26-2008, 04:15 PM
If he does get very hot and passes the other leaders, Ramirez might not even need 502 plate appearances to win the batting crown. If he had just 500 or 499, and figuring he would have had hitless at bats to make up the 502 appearances would still keep his batting average above all the other qualifiers in the league, he would win the batting crown. That is provided for in Section 10 of the major league rules, and it was discussed with respect to Rod Carew in 1969. In his breakout season, he managed 504 plate appearances. Had he come up four less times, he still would have been crowned batting champion.


Fascinating. Great find, I never knew that rule existed. For those interested in seeing the actual text of the provision, it is Rule 10.22(a) and can be found here. (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2008/official_rules/10_the_official_scorer.pdf)

UofCSoxFan
08-26-2008, 06:36 PM
Nope. 384 PAs in 131 games is 2.93PA/G, not enough to qualify.

But as I spelled out above, he's averaging 3.69 PA/G he's played (104 entering today)....so it's not like he's getting less than 3 PAs a game now and its not like he's only playing 70% of the games (which that 2.93 figure reflects because of his early limited playing time). The question just becomes how many of the remaining 31 he plays. If he plays them all, he should get the need appearances...barely.

Frater Perdurabo
08-26-2008, 08:41 PM
Know how to get him more plate appearances? Have him lead off.

nsdjoe
08-27-2008, 06:03 AM
-Swisher (which is the only disappointment so far)

I think Swisher is getting a fairly undue bad rap. True his .234 avg is well below what most expected him to put up, but his OBP is .352, .025 higher than Ramirez (though Alexei's OPS is higher)! So he's still contributing. Not to mention some of the extremely clutch hits he's had.

21stcenturySox
08-27-2008, 09:28 AM
Know how to get him more plate appearances? Have him lead off.

Tuff call here: If it ain't broke don't fix it?

bird in the hand (ROY) vs two in the bush?

Will OC sulk about it and take him off his game?

Glad it's not me making that decision.

UofCSoxFan
08-27-2008, 09:52 AM
I think Swisher is getting a fairly undue bad rap. True his .234 avg is well below what most expected him to put up, but his OBP is .352, .025 higher than Ramirez (though Alexei's OPS is higher)! So he's still contributing. Not to mention some of the extremely clutch hits he's had.

I agree. Plus he's been valuable playing 4 defensive positions and he can work a count still. It's kind of like how Thome was getting lumped in with Konerko earlier in the year, even though at the time Thome still had solid OBP and Slugging numberbs despite his low average. Sometimes people get fixated on one stat and don't see the whole picture.

I mean hell, Swisher isn't that far off his career average...he just isn't a big average guy. Even though I'd rather have a hit than a walk (as hits can move up runners mulitple bases wheras walks do not|) the fact that Swisher walks so much more than offsets his low average..

guillen4life13
08-27-2008, 10:40 AM
Tuff call here: If it ain't broke don't fix it?

bird in the hand (ROY) vs two in the bush?

Will OC sulk about it and take him off his game?

Glad it's not me making that decision.

OC was brought to this team to be the second hitter in the lineup. He was moved to leadoff when no other option presented itself.

I believe the situation has changed. I think TCM could handle leading off, but I don't think that putting him in contention for ROTY is the right reason to do so. He still needs to learn to take more pitches--you can't always have first-pitch, ball in play action. Especially at the beginning of the game, you want to avoid that.

Lundind1
08-27-2008, 12:48 PM
-Swisher (which is the only disappointment so far)

I would not be so disappointed in Swisher. I like his attitude. On Elvis night he came out wearing a plastic Elvis hair hat. And after the game he came back out into the dugout while the performer was on the field. You never see players have that much fun.

I did see Alexei hit the ball really well in his first few plate appearances against the Twins in the second game. I have liked him, and while I agree that he did look over matched he made the correct adjustments. As Hawk said, there isn't an at bat for this kid where he isn't learning and making adjustments. That is the sign of a good ballplayer, as long as he doesn't overthink his situation.

I don't see him winning the batting title, however I do see him getting some big hits for us in the future.

Konerko05
08-27-2008, 01:48 PM
I don't see him winning the batting title, however I do see him getting some big hits for us in the future.

He is getting big hits for us in the present.

The big thing about Alexei is patience at the plate. I don't think he will ever have a very high walk total, and I'm alright with that. If he is hitting .320 and slugging .500, I'll have no complaints.

More importantly, patience is going to affect how good of pitches he is going to see in an at bat. I see him swinging at bad pitches very early in the count, and the crazy thing is, he is making contact most of the time.

Prime example: Yesterday he is up with the bases loaded, swings at a first pitch breaking ball at his eyes and pops it up to the end the inning.

If Alexei would be just a tad more patient at the plate, he would be making contact on much better pitches. Pitchers would also stop throwing him pitches outside of the zone early in the count. Who knows how high his batting average would be if he was making contact on strikes more often.

Adele_H
08-29-2008, 03:49 PM
Alexei is arguably our best fastball/mistake hitter. He will never see better pitches than he will hitting in front of Quantin & Dye.

Not to mention hitting #1 gets him the most at-bats (to learn the league, which is still a pretty relevant issue).

And maybe - just maybe - the added responsibility of hitting atop the order leads a smart hitter like Alexei to not try to pullevate quite as many pitches, which seems to put him into 1-2/0-2 hole too often.

Alexei
Swisher
Quentin
Dye
Thome/Griffey
Kong
AJP
Crede
Cabrera