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View Full Version : Dice-K gets lucky yet again


chaerulez
08-20-2008, 01:04 AM
I've never seen a guy get so lucky in a season. Yes he has the record (poor way to judge a pitcher) and the ERA (better way, but not perfect either) but I can't believe the amount of walks he gives up and gets away with. His K/BB is laughable he gets about 1.5 K's to every 1 BB. He averages about 4-5 BB every 9 innings, which is really bad. The only thing that has saved him is the fact he's only given up 8 HRs in 120+ IP. And he's not exactly a workhorse, he averages less than 6 innings a start and probably won't even break 180 IP for the season. I bring this up because he walked 5 in 5 IP today let was able to escape with a win. I don't know, he just screams overrated to me and I think he's a prime canadiate of getting rocked in the postseason.

SoxSpeed22
08-20-2008, 01:19 AM
Opponents are hitting .204 off of him with runners on. He does get too fancy with hitters when no one is on base. The reason he does not pitch many innings is because he runs up his pitch count. He's around 100 pitches after 5-6 innings.
If he does it enough times, that ain't luck, that's skill.

palehozenychicty
08-20-2008, 08:03 AM
He is Vazquez's brother, in that he has very good stuff but is afraid to throw strikes. For the kind of investment they made, they need to get that through his head.

turners56
08-20-2008, 09:21 AM
He is Vazquez's brother, in that he has very good stuff but is afraid to throw strikes. For the kind of investment they made, they need to get that through his head.

The difference is that Dice-K makes the big pitches, Javy usually doesn't.

chaerulez
08-20-2008, 11:39 PM
Opponents are hitting .204 off of him with runners on. He does get too fancy with hitters when no one is on base. The reason he does not pitch many innings is because he runs up his pitch count. He's around 100 pitches after 5-6 innings.
If he does it enough times, that ain't luck, that's skill.

I'd like to see him do it for more than one season before I want to say it's skill. I just wouldn't trust anyone on my team with that many walks to make a playoff start for me. That and the fact he's usually done after 5, 6 at the most innings isn't very good either. I think he can still turn it around, but he tries too hard to get by on pure stuff instead of just trying to get outs.

Foulke You
08-21-2008, 12:40 AM
I heard some folks on ESPN 1000 talking about Matsuzaka as a sleeper Cy Young candidate. While I think that might be a tad overboard, I do think he has been much better for Boston this year than last year. I was impressed with him when we played against him at The Cell recently. Matsuzaka is on the short list of pitchers who have shut our offense down at home this year. Matsuzaka has yet to reach that dominating #1 level that experts had him pegged at though. I still think of him more as a solid #3 starter and wouldn't say that his record has been all luck this year. You can't get into that many jams and pitch out of them and be THAT lucky.

Lefty34
08-22-2008, 10:51 PM
I heard some folks on ESPN 1000 talking about Matsuzaka as a sleeper Cy Young candidate.

That mere thought is the reason why the Win/Loss for pitchers is a ridiculous statistic and the Cy Young Award should be re-worked. Dice-K's BABIP this year to date is .264, which is well below his career BABIP of .290. He has been getting lucky when the ball is put into play against him, but other than that he is doing very poorly in the things he can control as a pitcher. He is walking people at a rate far above any rate he has had in the last five years, and he is striking out fewer people. Sooner or later those hits into the field are going to drop, and then those walks will catch up to him.

Adele_H
08-23-2008, 01:34 AM
A lot of people have the whole thing backwards:



Run Support = effectiveness of the opposing pitcher, NOT luck exclusively.

In other words... Matsuzaka is consistently outdueling his mound opponent. He is doing what he's paid to do, nothing more nothing less.

I will say this: where is Matsuzaka's much-billed 98 mph fastball? Gyroball?

Eddo144
08-23-2008, 09:40 AM
That mere thought is the reason why the Win/Loss for pitchers is a ridiculous statistic and the Cy Young Award should be re-worked. Dice-K's BABIP this year to date is .264, which is well below his career BABIP of .290. He has been getting lucky when the ball is put into play against him, but other than that he is doing very poorly in the things he can control as a pitcher. He is walking people at a rate far above any rate he has had in the last five years, and he is striking out fewer people. Sooner or later those hits into the field are going to drop, and then those walks will catch up to him.
Lefty, I like your posts, and I agree that a pitcher who walks over five every nine innings is not Cy Young material. However, I hesitate to use his BABIP this year vs. career, as this is really only his second season. You're basically comparing his BABIP this year to last year. Maybe this year is more indicative of his true level.

Not to start a war here, but I had nearly this identical conversation with my brother a couple days ago. And Matsuzaka walks way too many people to be considered one of the top pitchers in baseball.

Lefty34
08-23-2008, 10:46 AM
Lefty, I like your posts, and I agree that a pitcher who walks over five every nine innings is not Cy Young material. However, I hesitate to use his BABIP this year vs. career, as this is really only his second season. You're basically comparing his BABIP this year to last year. Maybe this year is more indicative of his true level.


The BABIP numbers I used included his seasons in Japan which, admittedly, is not MLB-level baseball, but it is still competitive and the numbers from those seasons are better than nothing. However when you look at his BABIP from last season to this season, you see quite a difference, which is exactly what you are supposed to see for a pitcher's BABIP from season to season. My point was that given his unusually low BABIP so far this season, he has been getting lucky defensively when his pitched balls are put into play. My point is that at some point in time, those hits are going to start dropping and that extra one or two guys on base (thanks to his BB numbers) will score more often and he will lose more games. He cannot control his BABIP, but he can attempt to control his strikeouts, home runs and walks, and he is doing poorly in two out of those three categories.