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Optipessimism
08-15-2008, 07:00 PM
Right now the Sox are 68-52 through 120 games.

Our winning percentage, if we maintain it (24-18 down the stretch), is good for a 92-70 record.

If we play .500 ball the rest of the way, we finish at 89-73.

We need to go 27-15 the rest of the way to win 95 games, and 32-10 to win 100.

The rest of the schedule:

3 @ OAK
3 vs. SEA
-offday-
3 vs. TB
4 @ BAL (completion game included which we play as the home team)
-offday-
3 @ BOS
3 @ CLE
-offday-
3 vs. LAA
4 vs. TOR
3 vs. DET
4 @ NYY
3 @ KC
-offday-
3 @ MIN
3 vs. CLE

Assuming we lose the series in Minny 2-1, we lose the home series against the Angels 2-1, we lose the Red Sox series on the road 2-1, we lose at home against TB 2-1, and we split the 4-game series in NY to go 6-10 in those games against tough teams, we'd need to go 18-8 against the bad teams we play in order to win 92 games.

IMO, if the Sox can go 18-8 against the bad teams they play (that's a very good record, but we have to remember these guys are playing for next year), they can afford to be bad against the good teams and still possibly win the division or wildcard. If they can go 18-8 against the bad teams and also play .500 baseball against the good teams, they'd win 94 games and probably make the playoffs no problem.

What do you guys expect, and what is realistic?

JB98
08-15-2008, 07:15 PM
We need to go 25-17 down the stretch. I think 93-69 will get it done.

sox1970
08-15-2008, 07:16 PM
I expect the Twins to go 12-6 at home, and 12-12 on the road. 91 wins.

Sox can go 24-18 with their remaining schedule, but they'll have to win series in the next 2-3 weeks. If they lose series the next few weeks, they probably will need a lot of help in September--and that's not a good thing to rely on late in the season.

KyWhiSoxFan
08-15-2008, 07:27 PM
I would hope they are better than a .500 team vs. the good teams. If they can continue to pitch like they have the last week, they will be tough against all the teams.

I don't see Minnesota playing .500 on the road the rest of the year. Their long road journey that begins Aug. 21 will wear on them when they're on the road 24 of 30 games. They have not played .500 year to date on the road (they're winning at a .456 clip on the road). If Minnesota comes in at 10-14 on the road or 11-13, they would need to go 13-5 at home or 12-6 to get to 90. I think that will be the max they will get. I can see them coming in at 88 or 89.

WhiteSoxBlog
08-15-2008, 07:36 PM
I think they have it in them to win series against the "good teams." But, I have to say, that seeing this is a little scary. They keep saying, "there's a lot of baseball to be played," but... it's the final stretch. They have to have a strong finish.

DoItForDanPasqua
08-15-2008, 07:42 PM
Everyone talks about winning more games than the Twins, but don't forget the wild card. The Sox are only one behind the Red Sox in the loss column and four behind the Rays. If they pass either of them, they will be in the playoffs. It's a nice insurance policy in case the Sox play well but Minnesota goes on a tear.

Optipessimism
08-15-2008, 07:43 PM
I think it's crucial to take care of business on the road in Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Kansas City. IMO, the only way we don't win this division is if we can't beat the teams we're supposed to beat. As long as we can take care of business, there shouldn't be much of anything on the line when we play our last road series in Minnesota. I'd love to see the Sox clinch on Twins home turf for once.

DoItForDanPasqua
08-15-2008, 07:44 PM
I'd love to see the Sox clinch on Twins home turf for once.

They clinched in Minnesota in 2000.

Brian26
08-15-2008, 07:44 PM
All the Sox need to worry about is winning tonight's game.

Optipessimism
08-15-2008, 07:46 PM
They clinched in Minnesota in 2000.
Yeah I know (Paulie running the bases with the beer) but the Twins have done it to us a couple of times since then haven't they?

TomBradley72
08-15-2008, 08:54 PM
If the starting rotation clicks in (like this week)....I think we'll go on our best run of the season over the next few weeks....win going away.

RockJock07
08-16-2008, 02:29 PM
All the Sox need to worry about is winning tonight's game.

I agree but I'm looking forward to the rest of the season. I just hope the Sox take of the SEA and TB before I worry about what happens with the 2 long road trips.. Seattle is bad, and TB is still playing well, but without their horses they should come back to earth. The sox need to go 5-1 on this next homestand which i think is very realistic.

The sox need to take care of the bad teams, that provides some room or error when they play Bos, LAA, and MIN.

SoxandtheCityTee
08-16-2008, 02:48 PM
I did a similar analysis last weekend. I thought it fair to hope to be 78-58 at the end of August, counting on only one win each @ OAK and @ BOS, going 5-1 on the upcoming homestand and taking 3 of 4 at Baltimore.

Then, playing .500 for September puts us at 91-71. Will that be enough? Don't know. I was trying to be realistic. The Sox obviously can play better than that, and I hope they will.

BigP50
08-16-2008, 08:48 PM
those 3 games against the Twins really make me nervous

cws05champ
08-16-2008, 10:39 PM
If Linebrink gets back in the next week or so and is effective, I think they will start to build a cushion that will win the division. He is the glue in the pen that defines everyone else's roles.

sullythered
08-17-2008, 12:00 AM
those 3 games against the Twins really make me nervous
I really really really wish those games were at the Cell.

esbrechtel
08-17-2008, 12:10 AM
We have some tough road games so lets hope for the best....All I want is a playoff berth...is that too much to ask?

South Side Irish
08-17-2008, 12:53 AM
I can't stand that we have to play the Yankees, Angels and BJ's in the last 3 weeks of the season. I wish it were all in-division at that time.

TBS, the 3 game series at Minny is going to be INSANE. My heart is already racing.

CWSpalehoseCWS
08-17-2008, 02:16 AM
those 3 games against the Twins really make me nervous

Same here. I think this race is going to go down to the wire, or at least until one of us goes into a slump. Those three games will be huge.

whitesoxfan
08-17-2008, 05:04 AM
If we take care of business against the Mariners at home, I think we'll be in good shape. The Twins are not a very good road team and playing 14 straight games on the road (with most of those out west no less) could be very damaging for them. Hopefully we build a cushion during that stretch.

Jurr
08-17-2008, 10:20 AM
Much like Cleveland in '05, the Twins are the best thing that could happen to the Sox right now. The next six weeks are going to be played at playoff intensity, and the Sox will either have to catch fire or sit at home in October. The teams that have success in the playoffs finish strong. Minnesota will ensure that if the White Sox are in the playoffs, they will be ready for the pressure that comes. I know we all say, "just get into the playoffs", but playoff losses hurt REALLY bad. That's exactly what will happen if our boys back into the field. There is NO WAY that they would be able to back in this year. I'm pumped.

Jim Shorts
08-17-2008, 10:42 AM
I can't believe we have to play KC again. It seems as though we've had 12 series with them already.

All we need is one or two solid streaks of wins. We could be ripe for that right now with the SP going like it has been.

That and the offense has to stop taking days off, especially when Danks is pitching.

gn2727
08-17-2008, 12:17 PM
IMHO the White Sox need to win at least 95 games to take the division. Minnesota will continue to play solid ball no matter what we do.

Frater Perdurabo
08-17-2008, 03:52 PM
I can't believe we have to play KC again. It seems as though we've had 12 series with them already.

All we need is one or two solid streaks of wins. We could be ripe for that right now with the SP going like it has been.

That and the offense has to stop taking days off, especially when Danks is pitching.

I don't mind playing KC at all. I just wish we could beat them them more often in KC.

russ99
08-17-2008, 07:56 PM
IMHO the White Sox need to win at least 95 games to take the division. Minnesota will continue to play solid ball no matter what we do.

They're a whole different team out of that dome and that road trip is gonna be nasty. Plus they've played unbelievable the last 3 weeks and the Sox have kept pace. I'd think there's a whole lot more pressure on them than the Sox right now. IMO, 90-92 would be their max.

The key for the Sox is to build a cushion during that long Twins road swing so that series in Minny is meaningless.

Optipessimism
08-17-2008, 08:01 PM
Much like Cleveland in '05, the Twins are the best thing that could happen to the Sox right now. The next six weeks are going to be played at playoff intensity, and the Sox will either have to catch fire or sit at home in October. The teams that have success in the playoffs finish strong. Minnesota will ensure that if the White Sox are in the playoffs, they will be ready for the pressure that comes. I know we all say, "just get into the playoffs", but playoff losses hurt REALLY bad. That's exactly what will happen if our boys back into the field. There is NO WAY that they would be able to back in this year. I'm pumped.
The downside to all that playoff-type baseball down the stretch is Gavin Floyd and Johnny Danks. I'd rather see the Sox have enough cushion to rest those guys a bit. They've been our two best pitchers all year IMO. Both have been stoppers when we've needed it.

Optipessimism
08-17-2008, 08:08 PM
Edit: posted something that was supposed to be in another thread. Don't know how it ended up here...

cws05champ
08-18-2008, 03:07 PM
With 38 full games left if the Sox and Twins stay constant at their same win % splits at home and road, it's pretty much a statictical tie at 91-71 if you don't include the extra inning game in Baltimore to be played. If included as a road game, even though we bat last, we come out 1 game ahead. I know this means nothing without going out there and winning games, but I thought I'd post the info.

Twins
> 15 Home, 24 Road
Home win % .666, Road win % .456
Home 10-5, Road 11-13 = 21-18

White Sox
> 19 Home, 20 Road(including X inn game)
Home win % .688, Road win % .452
Home 13-6, Road 9-11 = 22-17

oeo
08-18-2008, 03:10 PM
I really really really wish those games were at the Cell.

It'll just be that much sweeter when we hand it to them when it really matters most.

I still think they'll be 2-3 games out by that time.

hawkjt
08-18-2008, 03:44 PM
That double bill in Baltimore next monday is so big now. Sox have to find a way to take that x-inning game then build on that.

The Twins are not going away....I think the sox need to go 25-14 the rest of the way to make the playoffs.