ESPN now has playoff odds

[Fenway]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings

chance of making the playoffs

Anaheim 99.7
Cubs 94.7
Tampa 88.0
Boston 83.8
Brewers 72.0
Twins 63.1
Phillies 59.0
Dodgers 51.2
D-Backs 47.3
White Sox 46.0
Mets 31.5
Yankees 9.6


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[Vienna]

They added it about a month or so ago. At that time, the Sox and the Cubs were the two top teams from an odds perspective to make the playoffs.

Here's a bit more on how they get the percentage:
http://www.coolstandings.com/welcome.asp

And what ESPN had to say:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3474432

Again, note that the Good Guys had the best odds of AL teams to make the playoffs (in early July).

[Fenway]

I wonder what the Mets odds were a year ago :tongue:


They added it about a month or so ago. At that time, the Sox and the Cubs were the two top teams from an odds perspective to make the playoffs.

Here's a bit more on how they get the percentage:
http://www.coolstandings.com/welcome.asp

And what ESPN had to say:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3474432

Again, note that the Good Guys had the best odds of AL teams to make the playoffs (in early July).

[turners56]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings

chance of making the playoffs

Anaheim 99.7
Cubs 94.7
Tampa 88.0
Boston 83.8
Brewers 72.0
Twins 63.1
Phillies 59.0
Dodgers 51.2
D-Backs 47.3
White Sox 46.0
Mets 31.5
Yankees 9.6


send love mail to
ESPN
935 Middle St
Bristol, CT 06010
(860) 766-2000

How is the Sox' chances so much lower than the Twins in the division when we're only half a game out and 20 runs better in RD?

[Vienna]

How is the Sox' chances so much lower than the Twins in the division when we're only half a game out and 20 runs better in RD?

It's based on computer projections...similar to the Accuscore element on ESPN's preview for each ballgame. The articles have more on the weighting and the numbers -- past performance is another factor. For most of July, Boston had a higher percent chance of making the playoffs than Tampa, yet the Carmines were a few games back.

So, I'm guessing the question marks in the Sox rotation, the bullpen performance, both teams' remaining schedules, and the number of times the Twins have won the division in the past factors in to it. Also, a month ago the Sox run differential was about +80 and the Twinks were about +15. So that trend can't help the computer projections.

Again, this is to make the playoffs. We know what happens to the Twins once they're there.