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Fenway
08-05-2008, 01:18 PM
another 'expert'

He is saying 86 wins will win the Central

http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/2008/08/august-4-update.html

munchman33
08-05-2008, 01:22 PM
You gotta love how we have fewer projected wins than the Twins, yet a higher percentage of making the playoffs. :scratch:

balke
08-05-2008, 01:56 PM
another 'expert'

He is saying 86 wins will win the Central

http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/2008/08/august-4-update.html

I'm starting to think the Bosox and Yanks miss the playoffs with the Sox and Twins going.

Fenway
08-05-2008, 02:02 PM
I'm starting to think the Bosox and Yanks miss the playoffs with the Sox and Twins going.

The only thing keeping the east close was Tampa losing 7 just before the break.

If Tampa wins the AL East that may go down as the biggest upset in MLB history

jabrch
08-05-2008, 02:13 PM
I'm starting to think the Bosox and Yanks miss the playoffs with the Sox and Twins going.

That would just be the best...the absolute best.... WildCard gets Anaheim, ALC winner gets Tampa.

soxfanatlanta
08-05-2008, 02:15 PM
If Tampa wins the AL East that may go down as the biggest upset in MLB history


Biggest surprise? Yes.

A 162 game season does not make it an upset, IMO.

balke
08-05-2008, 02:30 PM
The only thing keeping the east close was Tampa losing 7 just before the break.

If Tampa wins the AL East that may go down as the biggest upset in MLB history


Jason Bay is a great player and is looking good in Red... but Lowell's Hip Flexor, and losing Manny add that sliver of doubt right now.

Now the Yanks lose Chamberlain for a while? Yanks might limp down the stretch. This could and would be the biggest upset in history if both those teams stayed at home while the Rays went from worst to first to win the AL East.

munchman33
08-05-2008, 03:36 PM
That would just be the best...the absolute best.... WildCard gets Anaheim, ALC winner gets Tampa.

We matchup better with Anaheim.

Fenway
08-05-2008, 03:52 PM
Jason Bay is a great player and is looking good in Red... but Lowell's Hip Flexor, and losing Manny add that sliver of doubt right now.

Now the Yanks lose Chamberlain for a while? Yanks might limp down the stretch. This could and would be the biggest upset in history if both those teams stayed at home while the Rays went from worst to first to win the AL East.

fingers crossed

Ortiz and Lowell OK; both in the lineup (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/08/ortiz_and_lowel.html)

A team source indicated that David Ortiz did not reinjure the sheath or the tendon in his left wrist, but had some discomfort from swinging too hard. Mike Lowell is also back in the lineup tonight. (Globe, 4:05 p.m.)

PeteWard
08-07-2008, 01:30 AM
We matchup better with Anaheim.

No thanks. I'd take Tampa.

White City
08-07-2008, 07:39 AM
No thanks. I'd take Tampa.

Agreed. I believe the Angels are the best team in baseball this year, and it isn't even close. Let someone else take a crack at them first. Besides, they will have home field, so if we're playing them, it means we are the Wild Card. Unless Ozzie has a 15-game winning streak up his sleeve I don't know about.

doublem23
08-07-2008, 08:15 AM
Agreed. I believe the Angels are the best team in baseball this year, and it isn't even close. Let someone else take a crack at them first. Besides, they will have home field, so if we're playing them, it means we are the Wild Card. Unless Ozzie has a 15-game winning streak up his sleeve I don't know about.

Considering 4 teams in the American League (including us) have a better run differential over the season than LAA, it's a lot closer than most people think it is.

cws05champ
08-07-2008, 09:01 AM
Well...that's it. Might as well pack it in. We're only going to go 23-27 the rest of the way.

What I find curious is Florida only has a 7% chance at the division while the Mets and Phils are at 45% each. Marlins are right there in the standings and are getting pitchers healthy.:scratch:

areilly
08-07-2008, 09:05 AM
another 'expert'

He is saying 86 wins will win the Central

http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/2008/08/august-4-update.html


86 may be harsh, but a sub-90 ALC winner isn't out of the question considering the extended bouts of crappiness the Sox are prone to and the supposed tailspin the Twins are due to enter any day now.


(First person to reply using the phrase "But the Sox are on pace to" gets shanked with my officially licensed Wincraft White Sox pencil.)

jabrch
08-07-2008, 09:16 AM
Agreed. I believe the Angels are the best team in baseball this year

I disagree - and I may not even have them in my top 5...

Hitmen77
08-07-2008, 09:18 AM
Biggest surprise? Yes.

A 162 game season does not make it an upset, IMO.

Yeah, but the entire nation will be upset if the Yankees and the beloved Red Sox don't make the playoffs.

doublem23
08-07-2008, 09:23 AM
Well...that's it. Might as well pack it in. We're only going to go 23-27 the rest of the way.

What I find curious is Florida only has a 7% chance at the division while the Mets and Phils are at 45% each. Marlins are right there in the standings and are getting pitchers healthy.:scratch:

I doubt that this thing takes stuff like health into the equation since that's totally random and unpredictable. Considering the Marlins have so far been outscored by 20 runs this season, it's not too hard to consider their record has been a bit inflated by luck.

jabrch
08-07-2008, 09:25 AM
another 'expert'

He is saying 86 wins will win the Central

http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/2008/08/august-4-update.html

KC - .4%
Cle - .5%

I know those are small numbers, but his "math" is completely discredited in my eyes if he fails to incorporate in his modeling the assumption that a team that is currently 14.5 games out, in 5th place, that has already traded away key pieces, that is in disarray, has ANY chance of winning this division.

If someone is to be even remotely respectable in picking playoff odds, their model should have a bunch of teams at 0% - and that includes KC and CLE.

doublem23
08-07-2008, 09:50 AM
KC - .4%
Cle - .5%

I know those are small numbers, but his "math" is completely discredited in my eyes if he fails to incorporate in his modeling the assumption that a team that is currently 14.5 games out, in 5th place, that has already traded away key pieces, that is in disarray, has ANY chance of winning this division.

If someone is to be even remotely respectable in picking playoff odds, their model should have a bunch of teams at 0% - and that includes KC and CLE.

:rolleyes:

Quit your belly-aching, stranger things have happened. Did you forget about the run the Rockies put together last year? Or what about the Indians in '05? You realize that a .5% chance equates to once every 200 years, right? Not to mention, the Sox, Twins, and Tigers (if they're still in the race) haven't really proved that they're a lock to run away with this division, considering the Sox's pitching has been awful since the ASB and the Twins are terrible on the road.

Still... complaining over .5%? Ridiculous.

RockyMtnSoxFan
08-07-2008, 11:48 AM
These models usually use run differentials and schedules to predict the chance of winning each game, and therefore the predicted win total.

I think I could actually do a better job of predicting if I could get my hands on some text files with the scores from every game this year. I've created a model that does slightly better than the Pythagorean model that most people use. At any rate, I could create a probability distribution of wins for the Sox and Twinkies, which would be interesting.

I'm sure there are more sophisticated things you could add to the model as well, such as home-road splits, injury predictions, etc., but they would have to work as modifiers to the basic distribution of runs scored and runs allowed. That is what you use to predict a team's record.

Fenway
08-12-2008, 03:41 PM
Aug 12th update

http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/

Noneck
08-12-2008, 04:24 PM
Aug 12th update

http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/

Odds are only odds when a wager can be placed, these are predictions.

credefan19
08-12-2008, 05:57 PM
You gotta love how we have fewer projected wins than the Twins, yet a higher percentage of making the playoffs. :scratch:
i know, it doesn't make sense

RockyMtnSoxFan
08-13-2008, 03:25 PM
You gotta love how we have fewer projected wins than the Twins, yet a higher percentage of making the playoffs. :scratch:

It depends on how they are doing the calculations. They probably generate something like a histogram of wins, which tells you the percent chance that each team will reach a certain number of wins. Perhaps the Sox have a lower average number of wins, but there are more scenarios where they make the playoffs. It depends on the probability distributions.