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Cyclone792
07-31-2008, 10:28 PM
I wasn't sure if I would be allowed to create an account and toss up a thread, but it looks like I can so I figured I'd pop in and give you guys a rundown on Griffey.

I'm a Reds fan here in Cincinnati who attends games frequently - I've been to 80 games since the beginning of the 2006 season - so I've seen quite a bit of Griffey from his days immediately after coming over from Seattle to the present. I actually started saving ticket stubs in 2005 for games that I attended in which Griffey hit a home run, and after tallying it up tonight I found out that I've seen him hit 19 home runs in person, including #599, #601 (in Yankee Stadium) and #604.

I'm sure the big question on the minds of White Sox fans is what type of player should you expect Griffey to be during the remainder of this season. I'll try to answer that the best I can objectively, and I'll be happy to answer any questions you may have since I've seen the guy play regularly for the past eight plus years. He is most definitely not the same player that he was while with the Mariners the last time he roamed the outfield of AL parks regularly. He's heavier, he's slower in the field and on the bases, his bat speed has declined a bit, and his general skills have shown an overall decline. That's not unexpected given that he'll be 39-years-old in a few months.

That still doesn't mean Griffey doesn't have his uses, though. Despite a rather lackluster season thus far in 2008, Griffey started turning it around in July with a very nice month hitting .271/.386/.541/.927. He hit five home runs, six doubles, one triple, and added in 15 walks over his 101 plate appearances during the month. That's really not too shabby at all. I have to think that if he could repeat those numbers in August, September, and October that White Sox fans would be very pleased.

Even though he's declined, one of Griffey's strengths is still his ability to hit right handed pitching. Here's his splits against righties the last three seasons:

2006: .278/.346/.523/.869
2007: .300/.402/.540/.943
2008: .261/.373/.452/.825

His power has declined this season overall and against right-handers, but one of his main assets is still a very good batting eye. Pitchers do still pitch around him a bit, and Griffey does a fairly good job at laying off bad pitches. Even when he's going poorly, he'll draw his share of walks and still post a decent on-base percentage. Despite hitting only .245 with the Reds this season, his .355 on-base percentage was still second on the team amongst regulars behind only Adam Dunn thanks to the 61 walks Griffey has taken in 425 plate appearances. You will see a touch of the "Bonds Treatment" and a little bit of fear when Griffey is at the plate late in the game in a tight situation. Pitchers still do fear him as a hitter, and they still do fear his power a bit.

Against lefties, Griffey probably shouldn't be playing. Ideally, if the White Sox were to get the most out of his offensive production then they should probably relegate Griffey to being a platoon player. Here are his last three years against southpaws:

2006: .204/.256/.415/.671
2007: .236/.317/.419/.735
2008: .212/.319/.390/.709

One of [many] pet peeves Reds fans have had with Dusty Baker was his constant use of batting Griffey third in the order, mostly when the Reds were facing left handers. Griffey does still hit righties with authority nowadays, but he's struggled against lefties for the last three seasons and it's tough to see that turn around at this point.

Now the big question, defense ...

There's no other way to say it than just saying it ... Griffey isn't a center fielder, and Griffey shouldn't be playing center field. His outfield defense really started declining back in 2005, and by 2006 his defense in center field was a large liability for the Reds that wasn't going unnoticed by the fans. During that season I ran some analysis on Reds pitchers that also included some BABIP and DER numbers. Since it was obvious Griffey's defense in center field declined and since I already had the data handy, I ran splits for the Reds pitching/defense with and without Griffey in center field. Here are the results:


Splits with Griffey (100 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

10/01/06 4.93 4.55 1.31 6.57 3.06 2.15 2.14 21.09% .689 .320


Splits without Griffey (62 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

10/01/06 3.84 4.51 1.35 6.51 2.60 2.50 1.89 20.47% .716 .292

Some key data points:

The team DIPS ERA was virtually identical in both splits - 4.55 with Griffey vs. 4.51 without Griffey - but our team ERA itself was a full run higher with Griffey in center field (4.93 vs. 3.84).
The team defensive efficiency rating (DER) was .716 without Griffey compared to .689 with Griffey.
The team BABIP allowed was .292 without Griffey compared to .320 with Griffey.
The team 2B/9 rate allowed was 1.89 without Griffey compared to 2.14 with Griffey.It is extremely important to note that the study I undertook in 2006 was very crude, at best. Each game had different pitchers, different defenders playing different positions, and different offenses opposing the Reds. The center fielder for the Reds in 2006 during games in which Griffey was injured was typically Ryan Freel, who at the time was an average to above average defender in center field. It is impossible to prove that Griffey caused those differences himself with his defense in center field. My best guess is that Griffey's defense did contribute to some of those differences, but likely not all of them.

Nevertheless, the Reds did move him over to right field for the 2007 season due to Griffey's defensive decline. Griffey's defense in right field has generally been subpar since the move as well. Great American Ball Park does have one of the smallest right fields in all of baseball with the wall only 325 feet down the line and 370 feet to the power alley, and that has probably helped Griffey a bit. Additionally, Brandon Phillips is an excellent defender at second base and has been able to haul in some pop ups in shallow right field that most right fielders should be able to catch themselves.

In terms of scouting tools, his jumps have declined a bit as has his speed. His legs are simply wearing out given his age and injuries - one of his hamstrings has been surgically reattached to the bone - and sometimes it looks like Griffey is just running in sand. He does still take very nice routes to the ball, and that is the one aspect of his stellar defensive days that remain. But there will be balls that get by him in the gaps that better defensive outfielders would stop, and there will be balls that drop in front of him that better outfielders would haul in. It's simply mother nature taking its toll on an aging body; there haven't been many center fielders in the game's history still playing the position well at the age of 38.

All that said, I wish Griffey and the White Sox all the best. My Reds aren't going anywhere this season; I'll be rooting for the White Sox to win it all now in 2008 because I'd love to see Griffey get a ring. I suspect that there will be a decent contingent of Reds fans doing the same this year. Treat Griffey well, and he'll return the favor. He still is capable of going on a one or two month tear, and you guys will absolutely love him if he can achieve that this fall.

2906
07-31-2008, 10:33 PM
Very nice objective analysis Cyclone. Thanks for dropping by to post. :smile:

kitekrazy
07-31-2008, 10:36 PM
Welcome and thanks for the info. Right now I think having his presence will probably do just as much for the team. He's a living legend.

Cyclone792
07-31-2008, 10:37 PM
By the way, I will add this ...

The White Sox have a very nice advantage that the Reds rarely had this season with the ability to DH Griffey periodically. Other than one interleague roadtrip of nine games or so, the Reds were forced to play Griffey in the field. His legs take a beating with regular outfield play, and I really do believe the chances increase for a Griffey offensive tear if the Sox are able to DH him periodically and give his legs some rest. One of the reasons I believe Griffey's numbers got a small boost in July is because he was able to DH and rest up a bit during the Reds' interleague road games in late June. Not only were his numbers better, but he also looked better and appeared a bit stronger at the plate.

I'm hoping he gets some action at DH because I really think it will help his hitting for you guys down the stretch.

Frater Perdurabo
07-31-2008, 10:38 PM
Thank you for that thoughtful and information-packed post! And welcome aboard!

asindc
07-31-2008, 10:38 PM
Jason, welcome to WSI, and thank you for the detailed analysis. I'm slightly positive about the move because I think it will light a fire under Konerko and we did not give up much baseball-wise. I've always liked Griffey and I'm glad I can now passionately root for him.

Jaysox
07-31-2008, 10:39 PM
Awesome post! Thanks for the info!

IlliniSox4Life
07-31-2008, 10:40 PM
Wow, it's a real treat when we get posters from other teams who can give us a different vantage point on analyzing what our team has done. There's a lot to digest in your post. It was well thought out and posted when you had very little incentive to come over here and make a well thought out and informative post.

This is quite possibly one of the best first posts in WSI. Thanks a lot, welcome, and hopefully you can stick around here. Despite a lot of the chaos that can occur, when you filter through some of the fanaticism, there is quite a bit of information, knowledge, and entertainment on these boards.

Lillian
07-31-2008, 10:40 PM
Jason,

How thoughtful of you to go to so much trouble to write that post.
It was very interesting. Thanks

Mohoney
07-31-2008, 10:40 PM
One question:
Were most NL teams employing a shift against him this season, or was he hitting the ball the opposite way enough to make the shift useless?

DickAllen72
07-31-2008, 10:42 PM
I wasn't sure if I would be allowed to create an account and toss up a thread, but it looks like I can so I figured I'd pop in and give you guys a rundown on Griffey.

:welcome:
Thanks for the great post! I appreciate the in-depth scouting report on Griffey Jr.

Cyclone792
07-31-2008, 10:46 PM
One question:
Were most NL teams employing a shift against him this season, or was he hitting the ball the opposite way enough to make the shift useless?

Most NL teams were employing the shift against him, some teams a little more severe than others. I believe there were one or two teams that played him somewhat straight up, but I forget which teams were doing it. Both Griffey and Adam Dunn were/are getting the shift on a nightly basis.

Here is a picture I took of the shift the Mets put on him a few weeks ago (I can try to post the pic directly in the thread, but I'm not sure if there's forum rules against it).

http://img378.imageshack.us/img378/2066/griffeyshiftzb5.jpg

lths06
07-31-2008, 10:53 PM
Most NL teams were employing the shift against him, some teams a little more severe than others. I believe there were one or two teams that played him somewhat straight up, but I forget which teams were doing it. Both Griffey and Adam Dunn were/are getting the shift on a nightly basis.

Here is a picture I took of the shift the Mets put on him a few weeks ago (I can try to post the pic directly in the thread, but I'm not sure if there's forum rules against it).

http://img378.imageshack.us/img378/2066/griffeyshiftzb5.jpg

Haha Sox fans are certainly used to that shift...now we get to see it twice a game...though that third baseman is a little extreme

guillen4life13
07-31-2008, 10:54 PM
Thanks for your insight. That was an excellent post!

Of course, I hope that Jr. can go on a tear and I'm also very worried about him in CF considering the fact that neither of our other two starting OFers are truly elite defenders. They're good--sometimes very good/great, but not the best... and neither has tremendous range. I imagine they'll have Griffey slightly shaded to LF since Dye seems to be better than TCQ on defense.

I'm just in wait and see mode. I'm going to DVR this weekend series since I'll be in Grant Park every evening for Lollapalooza. I really hope Griffey can start strong.

WhiteSox5187
07-31-2008, 11:24 PM
Best first post ever. I don't even know what half of those stats mean, but you did your work! You got a couple of good young players in Massett and Richar by the way.

The Dude
08-01-2008, 01:54 AM
Thanks for your insight. That was an excellent post!

Of course, I hope that Jr. can go on a tear and I'm also very worried about him in CF considering the fact that neither of our other two starting OFers are truly elite defenders. They're good--sometimes very good/great, but not the best... and neither has tremendous range. I imagine they'll have Griffey slightly shaded to LF since Dye seems to be better than TCQ on defense.

I'm just in wait and see mode. I'm going to DVR this weekend series since I'll be in Grant Park every evening for Lollapalooza. I really hope Griffey can start strong.

That is nuts. Dye is by far a worse defender than TCQ. Dye is basically= to Griffey in defense. TCQ isn't great but exceeds both washed up defenders.

Mohoney
08-01-2008, 02:23 AM
That is nuts. Dye is by far a worse defender than TCQ.You're not watching the same game. Dye has been a more competent defender than Quentin this year, and anybody that says otherwise is not paying attention and/or still letting 2007 blind them from reality.

gobears1987
08-01-2008, 02:34 AM
Haha Sox fans are certainly used to that shift...now we get to see it twice a game...though that third baseman is a little extreme
It's no different than the one I saw the Twins used at the home opener against Thome.

gobears1987
08-01-2008, 02:37 AM
That is nuts. Dye is by far a worse defender than TCQ. Dye is basically= to Griffey in defense. TCQ isn't great but exceeds both washed up defenders.
Dye has made some spectacular catches this year that TCQ couldn't even dream of making. Dye has far more experience in the outfield, a better arm, and he gets better reads off the balls.

TCQ's defense in LF is not brutal as Carlos Lee's was, but he isn't at the same level of Dye, who has collected a good number of highlight plays in the field this year.

Bucky F. Dent
08-01-2008, 05:49 AM
Thanks, Cyclone!


:welcome:


BTW, is your username in any way related to the old IHL franchise?

SoxGirl4Life
08-01-2008, 07:17 AM
Wow! Whatta post! :thud:

Welcome to WSI. It seems as if you'll fit right in!

Over By There
08-01-2008, 08:08 AM
What a wonderful first post, especially compared to the fans of other teams that like to troll WSI... :thumbsup: to you, and thanks for the insight.

:welcome:

hawkjt
08-01-2008, 08:31 AM
Good info, thanks.
I see Jr. playing 6 innings in centerfield with BA coming in late, dhing vs some rightys to give Jimbo a break, and maybe some first base when a tough righty is pitching with swish going out to center,maybe.

Can Jr. play first? If so, why not have him in there with swish in center on those days they both play?

btrain929
08-01-2008, 08:52 AM
Good info, thanks.
I see Jr. playing 6 innings in centerfield with BA coming in late, dhing vs some rightys to give Jimbo a break, and maybe some first base when a tough righty is pitching with swish going out to center,maybe.

Can Jr. play first? If so, why not have him in there with swish in center on those days they both play?

I think I heard on the radio he's played there for 2 innings in his entire career, the last appearance came in '98. I agree it's not rocket science, but if that is what we were thinking we could put JR in RF and Dye at 1B. But then that wastes Dye's good arm.

I don't know....:(:

beasly213
08-01-2008, 08:58 AM
Best first post ever. I don't even know what half of those stats mean, but you did your work! You got a couple of good young players in Massett and Richar by the way.

You don't have to lie to our newest member. :cool:

Thanks for the post and all of the information. Please stick around these boards and stay a while won't you?

oeo
08-01-2008, 09:12 AM
You're not watching the same game. Dye has been a more competent defender than Quentin this year, and anybody that says otherwise is not paying attention and/or still letting 2007 blind them from reality.

Don't mind him, he just hates Dye.

Cyclone792
08-01-2008, 09:26 AM
Thanks, Cyclone!


:welcome:


BTW, is your username in any way related to the old IHL franchise?

Wow, that's pretty good! I did follow the Cincinnati Cyclones IHL franchise back in the 1990s. They've had a new ECHL franchise the past few years, and they actually won the ECHL Kelly Cup this year.


Good info, thanks.
I see Jr. playing 6 innings in centerfield with BA coming in late, dhing vs some rightys to give Jimbo a break, and maybe some first base when a tough righty is pitching with swish going out to center,maybe.

Can Jr. play first? If so, why not have him in there with swish in center on those days they both play?

Griffey never appeared at first base for the Reds; he did appear at first base for two games with the Mariners.

I do not know how much truth there is to this, but I once heard that the Reds were not keen on moving Griffey to first base because they didn't want him having to stretch for balls given his leg injuries. Whether that is true or not, I have no idea. Thinking back on it, I'm not sure I'd put much stock in that story though.

After the 2005 season, the Reds traded Sean Casey and had a temporary hole at first base. The plan at the time was to move Adam Dunn to first, but the Reds went out and signed Scott Hatteberg late in the offseason. Hatteberg and Aurilia platooned in 2006, then Hatteberg platooned with Jeff Conine in 2007 while Griffey transitioned from center field to right field. With Joey Votto coming up through the farm system, I'm not sure if the Reds even ever gave any thought to moving Griffey to first anytime recently.

ondafarm
08-01-2008, 10:09 AM
If you think the pitchers will notice Griffey's defense in CF lacking, you haven't seen the Sox with Swisher in CF.

markopat
08-01-2008, 10:09 AM
Thanks for the great insight Cyclone...very enjoyable post to read and I hope to see you in here more in the future!

Go Go SOX!

RedlegJake
08-01-2008, 11:19 AM
As a new White Sox fan and longtime Reds fan and fellow poster of Cyclone's at RedsZone I'd like to chime in n the tail end of his post.

First - Cyclone is one of Redszone's top posters so the quality of his post doesn't surprise me...nor does finding him here since the Sox just gained the whole Reds' Nation as fans for the season. We would all love a ring for Junior and will be rooting the White Sox on.

2nd - Junior in CF does worry me - his legs aren't what they were but that role mixed in with some DH maybe he won't be over exposed. He hasn't played first - I believe when he was recuperating from injury he said he felt the sudden stops and starts at first would be harder on him than the running in the outfield. The Reds had Casey, then Hatteberg, so they never really explored that option.

3rd - If there is a good time to acquire Junior it is now in hot weather when he is really starting to stroke the ball. As Cyclone pointed out his bat against RHers is still very good but I'd add that he is still a very disciplined hitter who knows how to work pitchers and rarely has terrible at bats (when he does it's usually against a tough lefty). The knowledge and skills remain where his physical ability has slowed down.

4th - Defensively it's range that hurts Junior - he still gloves everything near him and his arm has gone from great to merely average but the throws are on the mark and always to the right place. Mostly its the balls that drop in front of him that frustrate.

5th - I really, truly hope a pennant run and chance at a ring rejuvenates Junior enough that he delivers some key plays for the White Sox and helps you guys win it all this year!

Here's to October and the White Sox winning it all!

Jake

RedHeadPaleHoser
08-01-2008, 11:22 AM
Gotta love the Reds/White Sox love.

Welcome aboard to you both. Thanks for the objectivity of your information.

soxfan43
08-01-2008, 11:29 AM
There must be a ton of Reds fans following the sox now. Masset was #3 in google's hot trends yesterday for a while, and Richar was up there as well. I went to a lot of Reds games in college a few years ago, Griff definitley shouldnt a CFer under normal circumstances, but I really dont think he'll do much worse if at all than swish. And as Cyclone pointed out, Griff is killing righties, so a platoon might be in order. I'm pretty excited and curious to see how ozzie works this lineup day in and day out.

PolishPower83
08-01-2008, 11:29 AM
Wow! Reds fans seem awesome!

SoxGirl4Life
08-01-2008, 11:57 AM
I always liked the Reds. And the reps of their fans here at WSI have been great!

And good luck to the Reds in the near future! Some of us here have a disturbingly intense interest in you guys beating up a certain team in the NL central! :wink:

chisoxfanatic
08-01-2008, 12:04 PM
Dye has made some spectacular catches this year that TCQ couldn't even dream of making. Dye has far more experience in the outfield, a better arm, and he gets better reads off the balls.

TCQ's defense in LF is not brutal as Carlos Lee's was, but he isn't at the same level of Dye, who has collected a good number of highlight plays in the field this year.
Agreed on all counts. Outside of BA, Dye's our best defensive outfielder. I'd want him playing every day he's capable.

Thank you for your post, Cyclone! I'm looking forward to seeing how Griffey will do in our smaller CF, especially since we do have that DH spot to "rest" him with when necessary.

Mr.1Dog
08-01-2008, 12:09 PM
Graeter's Ice Cream Rules.:bandance:

Soxman219
08-01-2008, 12:16 PM
Wow! Reds fans seem awesome!

Well they do have that Marty guy who dissed the Cubs fans. I like this Reds/White Sox alliance.

tebman
08-01-2008, 12:23 PM
Well they do have that Marty guy who dissed the Cubs fans. I like this Reds/White Sox alliance.

:thumbsup:


Ky9Kso9q_Ws



Welcome aboard, Reds fans! You're good people. :gulp:

balke
08-01-2008, 12:57 PM
Well, all i can really say is I hated the fact that Everett played CF. He was too old and slow IMO. But, he minimized mistakes, didn't run into other players and cause injuries, and did a decent job just by having good instincts.

All I want is decent play in CF by Griffey. That's all Swisher gave us. It'll be interesting to see how slow he looks in comparison. IMO Swisher doesn't actually move that fast. His body moves faster, but being as short as he is I think he doesn't make good ground. I'm hoping for better instincts from Griffey.

Offensively, I think this was a great idea by Kenny. Griffey's #'s this past month show a big resurgence in play. It is possible he's found a bit of a stride lately, and the Sox got him at the right time. I hope he starts things off with a bang in KC, to show the Sox he's ready for a pennant race.

MushMouth
08-01-2008, 01:00 PM
I can NOT wait to see that beautiful swing tonight in a sox jersey... arms fully extended, rigid on that angled plane...

gonna have to have a few of these :gulp:


and hope for a few of these

http://images.athlonsports.com/d/5869-1/KenGriffeyJr.jpg

skottyj242
08-01-2008, 01:32 PM
Skyline Chili rules my face.

MushMouth
08-01-2008, 01:34 PM
Skyline Chili rules my face.


It's all about Camp Washington Chili on Colerain... mmmm

Jim Shorts
08-01-2008, 01:41 PM
Dye has made some spectacular catches this year that TCQ couldn't even dream of making. Dye has far more experience in the outfield, a better arm, and he gets better reads off the balls.




Can anyone else chime in on whether Dye's arm is better than TCQ's?

I only ask because I think I disagree...

balke
08-01-2008, 01:46 PM
Can anyone else chime in on whether Dye's arm is better than TCQ's?

I only ask because I think I disagree...

I don't know for sure. I know in 05' v. the Angels, Dye's arm did pretty well. 3 years later? Still looks pretty strong to me. Quentin is pretty strong too though, so I wouldn't bet my life on either guy.

Gammons Peter
08-01-2008, 01:54 PM
Thanks Cyclone, great post. We welcome all Reds fans. You guys need to buy some tickets and come see your guy in action!

chisoxfanatic
08-01-2008, 02:05 PM
Can anyone else chime in on whether Dye's arm is better than TCQ's?

I only ask because I think I disagree...
I think Dye's is slightly better. I just think he gets a little more on his throws, allowing them to arrive at their destination more quickly. I think that is the main reason runners seem to have more respect for Dye as a fielder. If you notice, they're less likely to attempt to advance an extra base when Dye is fielding it (and, if they do, it seems they're more likely to be a "dead duck" with Dye). I'm not saying TCQ has a bad arm, because it's pretty decent. I'm just pointing out that I think Dye's is just better.

Cyclone792
08-01-2008, 02:07 PM
I always liked the Reds. And the reps of their fans here at WSI have been great!

And good luck to the Reds in the near future! Some of us here have a disturbingly intense interest in you guys beating up a certain team in the NL central! :wink:

Trust me, Reds fans loathe The Team That Shall Not Be Named as much as White Sox fans. :D:

The Reds hung this banner earlier in the season after Griffey hit his 600th home run. Today they added a new message across the banner:

http://images.onesite.com/thelotd.com/user/lance/thank-you-jr.jpg

Jim Shorts
08-01-2008, 02:21 PM
I think Dye's is slightly better. I just think he gets a little more on his throws, allowing them to arrive at their destination more quickly. I think that is the main reason runners seem to have more respect for Dye as a fielder. If you notice, they're less likely to attempt to advance an extra base when Dye is fielding it (and, if they do, it seems they're more likely to be a "dead duck" with Dye). I'm not saying TCQ has a bad arm, because it's pretty decent. I'm just pointing out that I think Dye's is just better.

You're probably right...I just remember TCQ gunning down Rentaria at first earlier this year. However, haven't seen much of his arm since.

Rocky Soprano
08-01-2008, 02:30 PM
Welcome to the Reds fans. I hope you guys visit frequently.

chisoxfanatic
08-01-2008, 02:34 PM
You're probably right...I just remember TCQ gunning down Rentaria at first earlier this year. However, haven't seen much of his arm since.
That was a pretty sick throw, and I give him credit for not being a lawn ornament out there. I've seen times where Dye guns down runners trying to stretch a double into a triple, and he performs the task seemingly with ease. Isn't it great to have two corner outfielders who are producing both offensively and defensively?

oeo
08-01-2008, 02:35 PM
That was a pretty sick throw, and I give him credit for not being a lawn ornament out there. I've seen times where Dye guns down runners trying to stretch a double into a triple, and he performs the task seemingly with ease. Isn't it great to have two corner outfielders who are producing both offensively and defensively?

If only we had on in CF. Hopefully Griffey is our man.

chisoxfanatic
08-01-2008, 02:38 PM
If only we had on in CF. Hopefully Griffey is our man.
I know Griffey is much older than his "prime;" but, I think one thing we have going for us is our much smaller CF than your average ballpark. Our wall isn't very high either. Griffey has some "help" due to the configuration of our ballpark.

Bill Naharodny
08-01-2008, 02:46 PM
I know Griffey is much older than his "prime;" but, I think one thing we have going for us is our much smaller CF than your average ballpark. Our wall isn't very high either. Griffey has some "help" due to the configuration of our ballpark.

Probably true as far as the home games go. But I was thinking today about going down the stretch and possibly into the playoffs. He would play in a series of outfields not particularly conducive to his limited range and creaky legs: Minnesota (turf), Rays (turf), Boston (big), New York (big), Anaheim (big), and Detroit (big). My guess is, to the extent he played outfield, he'd be a 6 inning guy -- or should be.

ChiSoxFan7
08-01-2008, 02:53 PM
so cyclone how did you find out about WSI and...


in regards to your post...






':worship::worship::worship::worship::worship::wor ship::worship::worship:CYCLONE

we're not worthy! we're not worthy!

great info and insight.

ondafarm
08-01-2008, 03:03 PM
Can anyone else chime in on whether Dye's arm is better than TCQ's?

I only ask because I think I disagree...

Totally different throws, totally different fields.

My opinion: Dye.

hawkjt
08-01-2008, 03:23 PM
Probably true as far as the home games go. But I was thinking today about going down the stretch and possibly into the playoffs. He would play in a series of outfields not particularly conducive to his limited range and creaky legs: Minnesota (turf), Rays (turf), Boston (big), New York (big), Anaheim (big), and Detroit (big). My guess is, to the extent he played outfield, he'd be a 6 inning guy -- or should be.


We do not play at Detroit or Tampa again this year, thankfully.
Minny,Bos,NY,Angels,and KC all have decent sized cf,tho.

MushMouth
08-01-2008, 03:27 PM
Wouldn't Dye and Griffey make equally poor Center Fielders? If so, move Dye to center perhaps?

okay, nevermind, I started laughing while typing that...

what about TCQ? He has to be equal at center to Swish?

102605
08-01-2008, 03:30 PM
Wouldn't Dye and Griffey make equally poor Center Fielders? If so, move Dye to center perhaps?

okay, nevermind, I started laughing while typing that...

what about TCQ? He has to be equal at center to Swish?

As long as it isnt Mackowiak in CF I am content.

oeo
08-01-2008, 03:49 PM
Wouldn't Dye and Griffey make equally poor Center Fielders? If so, move Dye to center perhaps?

okay, nevermind, I started laughing while typing that...

what about TCQ? He has to be equal at center to Swish?

I think Dye is a better option in CF than Quentin...and I'm completely serious. He looks awkward a lot in LF, I'd hate to see him in CF.

Jimmy John
08-01-2008, 04:29 PM
I think Dye is a better option in CF than Quentin...and I'm completely serious. He looks awkward a lot in LF, I'd hate to see him in CF.

I agree. He has a good arm, but at times looks unsure of what he's doing out there. He does get the job done with a minimal amount of errors though, so I'll continue to be satisfied with that as long as he keeps up what he's doing with the stick!

Foulke You
08-01-2008, 04:30 PM
I have a question for our new Reds fan visitors like Cyclone. Yesterday, one of the local sports blab radio stations here in Chicago interviewed Paul Daugherty who I guess is a local Cincy newspaper writer. He was largely negative about Griffey during his interview and to me, almost sounded like he had an axe to grind with the man. He made it sound like nobody in Cincy will miss Griffey and are glad that he is gone. When the Chicago radio guys asked him if he still thought he could help a contending club he responded, and I'm paraphrasing here "well, yeah I guess...he can still hit a straight fastball if that is what you need." He referred to Griffey as the most sensitive athlete in sports who is always aware of everything that everyone says or writes about him and lets it bother him. He reminded me a little of a certain sports "columnist" named Jay Mariotti in Chicago who has an axe to grind with everyone in the White Sox organization. Here is a link to his article where he says a lot of the same things he said on the radio:

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080801/COL03/808010393/1007/SPT04

Am I wrong about this? Does this writer have a personal history with Griffey or is he just being negative? Do we need to worry that Griffey will melt under the pressure of the Chicago media? It seems like a lot of Reds fans are actually going to miss Griffey and that banner picture from downtown Cincy you posted is evidence of that.

Jim Shorts
08-01-2008, 04:35 PM
Totally different throws, totally different fields.

My opinion: Dye.

Well enough. That's why I asked. Thx.

UofCSoxFan
08-01-2008, 04:47 PM
I think Dye is a better option in CF than Quentin...and I'm completely serious. He looks awkward a lot in LF, I'd hate to see him in CF.

Agreed that TCQ looks awkard in LF but he seems to make the catches.

Dye at one point in his life was an elite defensive OF....now, he still has skills if he can get to balls, but he definitely has lost a step. I personally think a bunch of the great catches JD has made this year are balls we would have gotten to standing up 4 to 5 years ago....doesn't make him a great defender, but keeps him from being a liability.

chisoxfanatic
08-01-2008, 05:07 PM
I think it was Hawk who mentioned last night during the broadcast that CF was the "easiest outfield position." Does anyone agree with this? I was kinda confounded when I heard it, as that's the "quarterback of the outfield" position.

Hendu
08-01-2008, 05:12 PM
I think it was Hawk who mentioned last night during the broadcast that CF was the "easiest outfield position." Does anyone agree with this? I was kinda confounded when I heard it, as that's the "quarterback of the outfield" position.

I know that KW mentioned this when speaking to the press after the trade. That CF is the easiest position health-wise, which you wouldn't think because there's more distance to cover and side-to-side movement.

chaerulez
08-01-2008, 05:13 PM
Not surprised Dusty kept batting Griffey third against lefties, he is clueless. This is a guy who still continues to play Corey Patterson and his 37 OPS+.

DrCrawdad
08-01-2008, 06:46 PM
Trust me, Reds fans loathe The Team That Shall Not Be Named as much as White Sox fans. :D:

Well the Reds play that team six more times this season, if I have it right.

Do Centurion fans wave those "W" flags in your ballpark when their team wins? Here is what Reds fans should wave when the Centurions lose in your ballpark...



http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3145/2629314600_2c58956c5c.jpg?v=0

russ99
08-02-2008, 09:47 AM
Well the Reds play that team six more times this season, if I have it right.

Do Centurion fans wave those "W" flags in your ballpark when their team wins? Here is what Reds fans should wave when the Centurions lose in your ballpark...

Centurions? Dude, that's hilarious. :smile:

My 2 cents:

While Junior may not fit in with our clubhouse of idiots, I think he'll do well here and Ozzie will keep him loose and rested. We really don't need him for defense as much as we need him for his bat. If he can keep picking up key hits like yesterday, he'll be a huge acquisition.

I think some of us believe Quentin is a bit better defensively than he is, because he's such a big step up from what we got in LF from Pods the last few years.

Also, as far as the Sox players going to the Reds - Masset could excel as a starter, which is why Kenny picked him up. Richar did pretty well last year, getting better as the season came to a close - and could develop into a Pokey Reese-like 2B with more power.

Princess Dye
08-02-2008, 10:06 AM
it's been said of course, but excellent original post

i have questions (if the Reds fans are still checking this thread out) regarding Griffey's relationship with the media and fans in Cincy


While playing here in a 2 month playoff race away from his hometown will obviously be a different experience for him, what is the deal with these recent mentions of Junior getting death threats and never feeling comfortable while playing for his home town?

I'm also kind of curious...how much do you think Junior let his play be affected by all that, as well as just the mere fact of knowing he was playing for a team that wouldnt be headed to the playoffs for most of those Cincy years?



Thanks again

Cyclone792
08-02-2008, 11:55 AM
I have a question for our new Reds fan visitors like Cyclone. Yesterday, one of the local sports blab radio stations here in Chicago interviewed Paul Daugherty who I guess is a local Cincy newspaper writer. He was largely negative about Griffey during his interview and to me, almost sounded like he had an axe to grind with the man. He made it sound like nobody in Cincy will miss Griffey and are glad that he is gone. When the Chicago radio guys asked him if he still thought he could help a contending club he responded, and I'm paraphrasing here "well, yeah I guess...he can still hit a straight fastball if that is what you need." He referred to Griffey as the most sensitive athlete in sports who is always aware of everything that everyone says or writes about him and lets it bother him. He reminded me a little of a certain sports "columnist" named Jay Mariotti in Chicago who has an axe to grind with everyone in the White Sox organization. Here is a link to his article where he says a lot of the same things he said on the radio:

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080801/COL03/808010393/1007/SPT04

Am I wrong about this? Does this writer have a personal history with Griffey or is he just being negative? Do we need to worry that Griffey will melt under the pressure of the Chicago media? It seems like a lot of Reds fans are actually going to miss Griffey and that banner picture from downtown Cincy you posted is evidence of that.

For some reason, Daugherty is taking up the cause of a certain group of Reds fans who hated Griffey during his entire tenure here. Griffey wasn't Pete Rose and the Reds didn't have success during his time so they equate it to Griffey is lazy and doesn't care. That group of fans were largely a minority group, but they were large enough to be heard, and they were large enough for certain members of the media to take up their cause.

From 2001-present we've seen what I call the Lost Decade. It's been just constant losing, and the Reds have been a rather pitiful club. Despite having an awful ownership group in Carl Lindner for several years, awful general managers for several years (Bowden and O'Brien), and a largely awful team built by an awful front office, some Reds fans (and writers) blamed the Reds' woes on Griffey and Adam Dunn. Some Reds fans really believed that Griffey's injuries and decline in production were from laziness and generally not caring. They ignored the fact that Griffey worked his tail off after every injury so he could just come back and actually be on the field. They also hate Dunn's skill set as being a low BA player who strikes out a lot (but hits a ton of homers and takes a load of walks). Whenever the Reds lose, some people always tried the pin the blame on those two guys. It's a sector of fans who have a Pete Rose mentality, and if Griffey and Dunn don't play the game like Rose and the Reds lose, well Griffey and Dunn must not be worth anything then. It's truly unfortunate, but that's how it is for a certain chunk of Reds fans.

Griffey is a pretty sensitive athlete; he'll hear the boos, he'll hear the complaints on the radio, he'll hear the complaints in the paper. He'll also hear the appreciation though, and he'll have fun (in a good way) with the home fans in the outfield.

I'm rooting for him because I appreciate the aspect that he got to play for my favorite team for nearly nine years and that I got to see him live at the ball park for probably over 150 games. The team was miserable for much of his tenure here, but it's not Griffey's fault. For most Reds fans, I think that will be the case, but there will be a minority out there who believe otherwise.

Cyclone792
08-02-2008, 12:06 PM
it's been said of course, but excellent original post

i have questions (if the Reds fans are still checking this thread out) regarding Griffey's relationship with the media and fans in Cincy

While playing here in a 2 month playoff race away from his hometown will obviously be a different experience for him, what is the deal with these recent mentions of Junior getting death threats and never feeling comfortable while playing for his home town?

I'm also kind of curious...how much do you think Junior let his play be affected by all that, as well as just the mere fact of knowing he was playing for a team that wouldnt be headed to the playoffs for most of those Cincy years?

Thanks again

Both Junior and Senior have stated that Junior received death threats here in Cincinnati. It's really not surprising since this city still has a bit of a racial divide. Back in 1999 before Griffey arrived, when the Reds were in a pennant race, there was an incident with Reds fans in center field of Riverfront Stadium harrassing Mike Cameron with racial slurs. It's truly ugly and despicable how a few fans have treated certain recent Reds players, and Griffey was one of the guys who had the venom shot at him.

I have a feeling you guys in Chicago will be quite enthusiastic and happy to have Griffey for the last two months, and he'll hear the appreciation. It'll really help him out too, I believe.

Porcho
08-02-2008, 12:51 PM
I think Dye is a better option in CF than Quentin...and I'm completely serious. He looks awkward a lot in LF, I'd hate to see him in CF.

CQ is a natural right fielder, and has always played right field. Well, with the exception of playing LF in his major league debut in AZ; a few games in CF in AAA; and 4 years in CF while in high school. He was a RF up to the day he came to the White Sox. LF is not his natural position but he can play it. As for CF, he's not fast but he has knowledge of the position and takes good routes..........surprising many scouts who observed him during the games he played CF in AAA.

Now, granted AAA is not the same as major league but as a last resort, if he absolutely had to play CF, it's not like he would be clueless.

Adele_H
08-02-2008, 12:53 PM
I wasn't sure if I would be allowed to create an account and toss up a thread, but it looks like I can so I figured I'd pop in and give you guys a rundown on Griffey.

I'm a Reds fan here in Cincinnati who attends games frequently - I've been to 80 games since the beginning of the 2006 season - so I've seen quite a bit of Griffey from his days immediately after coming over from Seattle to the present. I actually started saving ticket stubs in 2005 for games that I attended in which Griffey hit a home run, and after tallying it up tonight I found out that I've seen him hit 19 home runs in person, including #599, #601 (in Yankee Stadium) and #604.

I'm sure the big question on the minds of White Sox fans is what type of player should you expect Griffey to be during the remainder of this season. I'll try to answer that the best I can objectively, and I'll be happy to answer any questions you may have since I've seen the guy play regularly for the past eight plus years. He is most definitely not the same player that he was while with the Mariners the last time he roamed the outfield of AL parks regularly. He's heavier, he's slower in the field and on the bases, his bat speed has declined a bit, and his general skills have shown an overall decline. That's not unexpected given that he'll be 39-years-old in a few months.

That still doesn't mean Griffey doesn't have his uses, though. Despite a rather lackluster season thus far in 2008, Griffey started turning it around in July with a very nice month hitting .271/.386/.541/.927. He hit five home runs, six doubles, one triple, and added in 15 walks over his 101 plate appearances during the month. That's really not too shabby at all. I have to think that if he could repeat those numbers in August, September, and October that White Sox fans would be very pleased.

Even though he's declined, one of Griffey's strengths is still his ability to hit right handed pitching. Here's his splits against righties the last three seasons:

2006: .278/.346/.523/.869
2007: .300/.402/.540/.943
2008: .261/.373/.452/.825

His power has declined this season overall and against right-handers, but one of his main assets is still a very good batting eye. Pitchers do still pitch around him a bit, and Griffey does a fairly good job at laying off bad pitches. Even when he's going poorly, he'll draw his share of walks and still post a decent on-base percentage. Despite hitting only .245 with the Reds this season, his .355 on-base percentage was still second on the team amongst regulars behind only Adam Dunn thanks to the 61 walks Griffey has taken in 425 plate appearances. You will see a touch of the "Bonds Treatment" and a little bit of fear when Griffey is at the plate late in the game in a tight situation. Pitchers still do fear him as a hitter, and they still do fear his power a bit.

Against lefties, Griffey probably shouldn't be playing. Ideally, if the White Sox were to get the most out of his offensive production then they should probably relegate Griffey to being a platoon player. Here are his last three years against southpaws:

2006: .204/.256/.415/.671
2007: .236/.317/.419/.735
2008: .212/.319/.390/.709

One of [many] pet peeves Reds fans have had with Dusty Baker was his constant use of batting Griffey third in the order, mostly when the Reds were facing left handers. Griffey does still hit righties with authority nowadays, but he's struggled against lefties for the last three seasons and it's tough to see that turn around at this point.

Now the big question, defense ...

There's no other way to say it than just saying it ... Griffey isn't a center fielder, and Griffey shouldn't be playing center field. His outfield defense really started declining back in 2005, and by 2006 his defense in center field was a large liability for the Reds that wasn't going unnoticed by the fans. During that season I ran some analysis on Reds pitchers that also included some BABIP and DER numbers. Since it was obvious Griffey's defense in center field declined and since I already had the data handy, I ran splits for the Reds pitching/defense with and without Griffey in center field. Here are the results:


Splits with Griffey (100 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

10/01/06 4.93 4.55 1.31 6.57 3.06 2.15 2.14 21.09% .689 .320


Splits without Griffey (62 Games)

Thru Date of ERA dERA HR/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB 2B/9 2B% Hits DER BABIP

10/01/06 3.84 4.51 1.35 6.51 2.60 2.50 1.89 20.47% .716 .292

Some key data points:

The team DIPS ERA was virtually identical in both splits - 4.55 with Griffey vs. 4.51 without Griffey - but our team ERA itself was a full run higher with Griffey in center field (4.93 vs. 3.84).
The team defensive efficiency rating (DER) was .716 without Griffey compared to .689 with Griffey.
The team BABIP allowed was .292 without Griffey compared to .320 with Griffey.
The team 2B/9 rate allowed was 1.89 without Griffey compared to 2.14 with Griffey.It is extremely important to note that the study I undertook in 2006 was very crude, at best. Each game had different pitchers, different defenders playing different positions, and different offenses opposing the Reds. The center fielder for the Reds in 2006 during games in which Griffey was injured was typically Ryan Freel, who at the time was an average to above average defender in center field. It is impossible to prove that Griffey caused those differences himself with his defense in center field. My best guess is that Griffey's defense did contribute to some of those differences, but likely not all of them.

Nevertheless, the Reds did move him over to right field for the 2007 season due to Griffey's defensive decline. Griffey's defense in right field has generally been subpar since the move as well. Great American Ball Park does have one of the smallest right fields in all of baseball with the wall only 325 feet down the line and 370 feet to the power alley, and that has probably helped Griffey a bit. Additionally, Brandon Phillips is an excellent defender at second base and has been able to haul in some pop ups in shallow right field that most right fielders should be able to catch themselves.

In terms of scouting tools, his jumps have declined a bit as has his speed. His legs are simply wearing out given his age and injuries - one of his hamstrings has been surgically reattached to the bone - and sometimes it looks like Griffey is just running in sand. He does still take very nice routes to the ball, and that is the one aspect of his stellar defensive days that remain. But there will be balls that get by him in the gaps that better defensive outfielders would stop, and there will be balls that drop in front of him that better outfielders would haul in. It's simply mother nature taking its toll on an aging body; there haven't been many center fielders in the game's history still playing the position well at the age of 38.

All that said, I wish Griffey and the White Sox all the best. My Reds aren't going anywhere this season; I'll be rooting for the White Sox to win it all now in 2008 because I'd love to see Griffey get a ring. I suspect that there will be a decent contingent of Reds fans doing the same this year. Treat Griffey well, and he'll return the favor. He still is capable of going on a one or two month tear, and you guys will absolutely love him if he can achieve that this fall.


Griffey is a DH at this point, but if Thome ever got hurt again, this move could prove to be huge.

Upgrades team depth and gets the Sox some local and national ink.

Danny Richar will be missed, but it's all about 2008 right now.

whitesox901
08-02-2008, 01:09 PM
welcome to WSI and thanks for the luck wish's, this was a good deal in my opinion and for our situation I think KW did a great job at the deadline

Adele_H
08-02-2008, 01:31 PM
I think Dye is a better option in CF than Quentin...and I'm completely serious..

Dye is a plant, what CF can you possibly mean? A CF in a 6-and-under league?

Not to say that TCQ is a gold glover, either. He's lost some mobiliy since he's bulked up. But IMO he's still better there than the usual LF fare - Carlos Lee, Jeff Abbott, Brian Daubach, Ross Gload, Scott Podsednik, Pablo Ozuna... :puking:


Is it true that Carlton Fisk played LF for us a little? How did he look?

chisoxfanatic
08-02-2008, 01:43 PM
Is it true that Carlton Fisk played LF for us a little? How did he look?
Apparently he made 4 errors while there, and the move was highly controversial:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html
There was quite a controversy in 1986, when the White Sox decided to put Carlton Fisk in left field. The White Sox had a plethora of catching arms, and that may have been the reason. However, Fisk had rarely played outfield before and was there for only 31 games, during which he made 4 errors. The decision and controversy may have been part of the reason why the Sox dumped manager Tony LaRussa (http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Tony_LaRussa), who was with the Sox for 64 games that season.

Frater Perdurabo
08-02-2008, 01:45 PM
Is it true that Carlton Fisk played LF for us a little? How did he look?

That was a Hawk Harrelson innovation, back in 1986.

I actually never saw him play an inning in LF; I didn't have cable back then and the Sox weren't on WGN.