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johnnyg83
07-23-2008, 11:12 AM
... amazing find, Kenny. Amazing. Good D, long, cheap contract. Good power, speed, arm ...

turners56
07-23-2008, 11:20 AM
... amazing find, Kenny. Amazing. Good D, long, cheap contract. Good power, speed, arm ...

He's also the 3rd best hitter in all of Major League Baseball in that span. Behind Matt Holliday and Milton Bradley I think.

UofCSoxFan
07-23-2008, 11:20 AM
Alexei has been great for sure. My only gripe I'd have with him is that I would like to see him walk a bit more. He only has 8 all year which means his OBP is pretty close to his average. That is the one reason why I would not bat him leadoff. Now plate patience may come later as he matures, but at the same time some hitters just can't be effective unless they go up there hacking. If that is the case with Alexei, I'll live with the lack of walks, but still be wary of having him at the top of the order.

How long is he signed for?

turners56
07-23-2008, 11:21 AM
Alexei has been great for sure. My only gripe I'd have with him is that I would like to see him walk a bit more. He only has 8 all year which means his OBP is pretty close to his average. That is the one reason why I would not bat him leadoff. Now plate patience may come later as he matures, but at the same time some hitters just can't be effective unless they go up there hacking. If that is the case with Alexei, I'll live with the lack of walks, but still be wary of having him at the top of the order.

How long is he signed for?

He has 3 more years at around $1 million annually. Pretty cheap.

The Immigrant
07-23-2008, 11:21 AM
How long is he signed for?

Three more years after this one.

oeo
07-23-2008, 11:23 AM
Alexei has been great for sure. My only gripe I'd have with him is that I would like to see him walk a bit more. He only has 8 all year which means his OBP is pretty close to his average. That is the one reason why I would not bat him leadoff. Now plate patience may come later as he matures, but at the same time some hitters just can't be effective unless they go up there hacking. If that is the case with Alexei, I'll live with the lack of walks, but still be wary of having him at the top of the order.

You're not going to find many Latin players that are patient. And who cares if he's going to hit .350+, which he has in each of the last two months.

How long is he signed for?Four years, at the bargain of $4.75 million over that span.

Tragg
07-23-2008, 11:36 AM
And who cares if he's going to hit .350+, which he has in each of the last two months.

Unless he's a hall of famer plus, he's not going to hit .350....that's why we care. He's a free swinger to the extreme (3% walk rate) -a good coach could work with him on that - not to change him, but to give him some element of discipline.

Iwritecode
07-23-2008, 11:44 AM
Alexei has been great for sure. My only gripe I'd have with him is that I would like to see him walk a bit more. He only has 8 all year which means his OBP is pretty close to his average. That is the one reason why I would not bat him leadoff. Now plate patience may come later as he matures, but at the same time some hitters just can't be effective unless they go up there hacking. If that is the case with Alexei, I'll live with the lack of walks, but still be wary of having him at the top of the order.

He doesn't strike out much either.

oeo
07-23-2008, 11:53 AM
Unless he's a hall of famer plus, he's not going to hit .350....that's why we care. He's a free swinger to the extreme (3% walk rate) -a good coach could work with him on that - not to change him, but to give him some element of discipline.

Alexei doesn't have bad discipline. He has very good pitch recognition, which is getting better by the day.

The walks will go up as teams start to stop laying balls in there for him. As long as he's getting on base, it shouldn't matter whether it's by hit or walk...you should prefer the hit. To say he needs to stop, and I'll quote you, "hacking," is ridiculous. If he can hit the ball (and he has the hitting zone to get hits out of the strike zone), then by all means, swing the bat. He's not like Uribe who just swings at everything because he can...Alexei can actually hit the ball, and do it with authority.

ondafarm
07-23-2008, 11:54 AM
Sure, I wish he'd walk a little more. And I think with a little more experience he'll be a little more selective. Maybe lead-off isn't the greatest spot for him.

But I'll take him as is, any day of the week.

kitekrazy
07-23-2008, 11:59 AM
Unless he's a hall of famer plus, he's not going to hit .350....that's why we care. He's a free swinger to the extreme (3% walk rate) -a good coach could work with him on that - not to change him, but to give him some element of discipline.

As long as it is not Greg Walker.

kitekrazy
07-23-2008, 12:01 PM
Alexei doesn't have bad discipline. He has very good pitch recognition, which is getting better by the day.


It's very impressive for such a young player. Too bad some veterans are starting to lack this.

DSpivack
07-23-2008, 12:08 PM
It'd also be nice if he could use his speed to steal bases.

jabrch
07-23-2008, 04:21 PM
Alexei has been great for sure. My only gripe I'd have with him is that I would like to see him walk a bit more.

You can't take a kid like that and take his aggressiveness away from him. That's why he is as good a hitter as he is. He's not a kid who grew up taking a ton of pitches, digging himself holes in counts, then shortening up and poking it into RF. He's not a guy (yet) who people will pitch around. And he's not in a spot in the order where he is likely to see that. I think the best thing to do with Alexei is NOTHING. Let him continue to develop as he has. Next season, move him up in the order and get him some protection. He bunts OK and he has shown the ability to hit for average. With CQ hitting in front of him, he'd see a lot of fastballs, maybe he can hit #2 next year?

ondafarm
07-23-2008, 04:32 PM
You can't take a kid like that and take his aggressiveness away from him. That's why he is as good a hitter as he is. He's not a kid who grew up taking a ton of pitches, digging himself holes in counts, then shortening up and poking it into RF. He's not a guy (yet) who people will pitch around. And he's not in a spot in the order where he is likely to see that. I think the best thing to do with Alexei is NOTHING. Let him continue to develop as he has. Next season, move him up in the order and get him some protection. He bunts OK and he has shown the ability to hit for average. With CQ hitting in front of him, he'd see a lot of fastballs, maybe he can hit #2 next year?

Alexei has grown a lot this year. If you mean nothing but give him help when he asks, then I agree. I think next year he will get a more steals and hit for an even better average.

voodoochile
07-23-2008, 04:36 PM
You can't take a kid like that and take his aggressiveness away from him. That's why he is as good a hitter as he is. He's not a kid who grew up taking a ton of pitches, digging himself holes in counts, then shortening up and poking it into RF. He's not a guy (yet) who people will pitch around. And he's not in a spot in the order where he is likely to see that. I think the best thing to do with Alexei is NOTHING. Let him continue to develop as he has. Next season, move him up in the order and get him some protection. He bunts OK and he has shown the ability to hit for average. With CQ hitting in front of him, he'd see a lot of fastballs, maybe he can hit #2 next year?

I want to be very careful how I phrase this next comment, but some players have such good bat control and vision that they are better off not walking a lot. Case in point Ichiro. This is a guy who hit .372 one year with an OBP of .414, who averages only .047 extra from his walks over the course of his career and walks only 46 times a year. He's also a guy who once singled off a ball that bounced in front of the plate. How much would you actually try to change his approach to batting?

I am NOT saying that TCM is as good as Ichiro, but not everyone needs to walk a ton to be successful with the bat. I would expect TCM to take more walks as he gets comfortable, but if he can hit .310 just from swinging, most of the rest if for ****s and giggles...

Frater Perdurabo
07-23-2008, 04:39 PM
I want to be very careful how I phrase this next comment, but some players have such good bat control and vision that they are better off not walking a lot. Case in point Ichiro. This is a guy who hit .372 one year with an OBP of .414, who averages only .047 extra from his walks over the course of his career and walks only 46 times a year. He's also a guy who once singled off a ball that bounced in front of the plate. How much would you actually try to change his approach to batting?

I am NOT saying that TCM is as good as Ichiro, but not everyone needs to talk a ton to be successful with the bat. I would expect TCM to take more walks as he gets comfortable, but if he can hit .310 just from swinging, most of the rest if for ****s and giggles...

Great post.

RowanDye
07-23-2008, 04:46 PM
I am NOT saying that TCM is as good as Ichiro, but not everyone needs to talk a ton to be successful with the bat. I would expect TCM to take more walks as he gets comfortable, but if he can hit .310 just from swinging, most of the rest if for ****s and giggles...

So you're saying just because he doesn't speak english (i.e. talk the talk), doesn't mean he won't walk the walk? :redneck

voodoochile
07-23-2008, 04:54 PM
So you're saying just because he doesn't speak english (i.e. talk the talk), doesn't mean he won't walk the walk? :redneck

Thanks for pointing that out. I fixed it now you look like the fool... BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!:D:

jabrch
07-23-2008, 05:02 PM
I want to be very careful how I phrase this next comment, but some players have such good bat control and vision that they are better off not walking a lot. Case in point Ichiro. This is a guy who hit .372 one year with an OBP of .414, who averages only .047 extra from his walks over the course of his career and walks only 46 times a year. He's also a guy who once singled off a ball that bounced in front of the plate. How much would you actually try to change his approach to batting?

I am NOT saying that TCM is as good as Ichiro, but not everyone needs to walk a ton to be successful with the bat. I would expect TCM to take more walks as he gets comfortable, but if he can hit .310 just from swinging, most of the rest if for ****s and giggles...


Agreed...

Here's the problem

If you ask me if I'd rather him get AAA hits, and 10 walks, or AAA hits and 11 walks, that's easy. But if you ask me if I want 30 walks, and XXX hits, and tell me that there is a lot of changes he has to make to his approach and there is a chance that XXX is less than AAA by a large margin, and that his SLG% would go down a lot as he does more poke and tickle, then it is something that is less attractive.

Sure - a walk is better than an out. Nobody disagrees. But that's not the tradeoff for a guy like Alexei at this point. It may actually be the tradeoff of a walk for 1.25 hits. and a walk for .25 XBH and a walk for 4 HRs...

Alexei looks like a good young hitter. I'm going to enjoy watching what he continues to develop into. Others can spend all the time they want bitching about what he isn't.

jabrch
07-23-2008, 05:05 PM
Alexei has grown a lot this year. If you mean nothing but give him help when he asks, then I agree. I think next year he will get a more steals and hit for an even better average.

Agreed...I wouldn't start changing him into being something he isn't. I'd let him keep being what he is.

UofCSoxFan
07-23-2008, 05:19 PM
You can't take a kid like that and take his aggressiveness away from him. That's why he is as good a hitter as he is. He's not a kid who grew up taking a ton of pitches, digging himself holes in counts, then shortening up and poking it into RF. He's not a guy (yet) who people will pitch around. And he's not in a spot in the order where he is likely to see that. I think the best thing to do with Alexei is NOTHING. Let him continue to develop as he has. Next season, move him up in the order and get him some protection. He bunts OK and he has shown the ability to hit for average. With CQ hitting in front of him, he'd see a lot of fastballs, maybe he can hit #2 next year?

That's what I was getting at with the 2nd part of my post (which you didn't quote). Ideally he'd walk more, but you don't want him taking and being 1-2, 0-2 all the time and getting into a defensive mode. I agree, the 2 hole seems better suited for him, IMO.

Eddo144
07-23-2008, 06:26 PM
I am NOT saying that TCM is as good as Ichiro, but not everyone needs to walk a ton to be successful with the bat. I would expect TCM to take more walks as he gets comfortable, but if he can hit .310 just from swinging, most of the rest if for ****s and giggles...
Hitting .310 without drawing very many walks is still not a good thing. Let's say he still draws enough walks to have an OBP of .330; that means he still makes an out 67.0% of the time! That's no better than average, and definitely below average for a leadoff hitter.

And due to his unique skillset, Ichiro is not really a good comparison to any player. In fact, as much as I love Ichiro, he's generally overrated. He's not one of the 10 best hitters in the league, despite what most people will argue. He's a very good hitter, has excellent bat control, and is exceptionally fast. However, he lits for little to no power, which limits his effectiveness.

jabrch
07-23-2008, 06:33 PM
Hitting .310 without drawing very many walks is still not a good thing.

That's untrue. Hitting .310 is ALWAYS a good thing.

Let's say he still draws enough walks to have an OBP of .330; that means he still makes an out 67.0% of the time! That's no better than average, and definitely below average for a leadoff hitter.

He may not be a leadoff hitter - but again - OBP is not a stat you can take out of context. The difference between a .330 OBP and a .360 OBP is about 20 times on base, which is about 10 runs over the course of a season. It's nominal. But having a guy who hits is much more important than a guy who walks. Remember - you can't walk if the pitcher throws you a strike.

I don't want a team full of guys with OBPs of .330, but if they all hit .310, that would be a damn good team that would consistently (I know people are begging for consistency) be able to get hits no matter what the pitcher was throwing and wouldn't depend much on what the pitcher does.

he lits for little to no power, which limits his effectiveness.

I wish all my players had such limited effectiveness. Walks are only nice if they are in addition to getting hits and getting XBH. Isolating out OBP in absence of avg and slg would be a bad way to build a baseball team. That would be a team that hardly ever wins games against good pitchers who throw strikes.

It's Dankerific
07-23-2008, 06:39 PM
And due to his unique skillset, Ichiro is not really a good comparison to any player. In fact, as much as I love Ichiro, he's generally overrated. He's not one of the 10 best hitters in the league, despite what most people will argue. He's a very good hitter, has excellent bat control, and is exceptionally fast. However, he lits for little to no power, which limits his effectiveness.

Alot of the ineffective singles by Ichiro end up doubles and triples because he steals alot of bases. he also runs very fast when a ball is put in play. scoring from 1st when others would have a harder time scoring from 2nd

SBSoxFan
07-23-2008, 07:02 PM
Hitting .310 without drawing very many walks is still not a good thing. Let's say he still draws enough walks to have an OBP of .330; that means he still makes an out 67.0% of the time! That's no better than average, and definitely below average for a leadoff hitter.

And due to his unique skillset, Ichiro is not really a good comparison to any player. In fact, as much as I love Ichiro, he's generally overrated. He's not one of the 10 best hitters in the league, despite what most people will argue. He's a very good hitter, has excellent bat control, and is exceptionally fast. However, he lits for little to no power, which limits his effectiveness.

Based on the scoop Alexei made today in the 7th (?) inning, I would say that, due to his unique skill set, Alexei is not really a good comparison to any player. :D:

voodoochile
07-23-2008, 07:15 PM
A comparison of two players with similar over all stats, but one walks more and has a higher OBP while the other has a higher BA:

Base stats:

620 TPA
.750 OPS

Player A: 550 AB 149 H 70 BB .271 BA .353 OBP .397 SLG = 278 total bases from Plate appearances (219 + 70).

Player B: 600 AB 186 H 20 BB .310 BA .332 OBP .418 SLG = 271 Total bases from Plate appearances (251 + 20).

Player A on the surface gets 7 extra bases for himself, but does that balance the effects that the extra 37 hits and 32 extra bases from XBH that Player B generates? It would depend on the number of times those extra hits/bases were with players on base.

I'd take player B because I'd expect to make up those extra bases lost at the plate on base runners who advance further on hits than on walks, but either way, the "obvious" choice of liking guys who walk a lot doesn't really look that huge when the numbers are run.

Frater Perdurabo
07-23-2008, 07:45 PM
Player A: 550 AB 149 H 70 BB .271 BA .353 OBP .397 SLG = 278 total bases from Plate appearances (219 + 70).

Player B: 600 AB 186 H 20 BB .310 BA .332 OBP .418 SLG = 271 Total bases from Plate appearances (251 + 20).

I'd like both players on my team, but if I have to choose, the choice is obvious. Give me Player B. A base hit can score a run even if there's just a runner on second or third. A base hit also can score two runs in the right situation, and an extra base hit can score two or three runs in the right situation. A walk can never score more than one run, and only if the bases are loaded.

A. Cavatica
07-23-2008, 08:39 PM
I wish all my players had such limited effectiveness.

All? Not Quentin, surely.

Adele_H
07-23-2008, 09:11 PM
I want to be very careful how I phrase this next comment, but some players have such good bat control and vision that they are better off not walking a lot. ..

This is a very complex subject, with plenty of gray area. So without amateurishly delving into knots & bolts of hitting science and whatnot....

Ramirez may look malnourished (which unfortunately wasn't unncommon for Cuban athletes who grew up during the time when he did) but has the basic ingredients - natural power; superb hand-eye coordinatition, quick reflexes & "decision-making" such as it is when you only have a few split-seconds... to be a top-notch hitter. Something along the lines of 310-320 BA, 25-30 HR, 40 2B, 10 3B, 90-100 RBI, 900-950 OPS, which would be impressive in the P.E.D-Testing era. And his high baseball/baserunning IQ + speed will allow for 30 SB at a high success rate, which is important. Bat control will allow to bunt, hit-n-run when asked. Hitting in the "clutch" and hitting good pitching likely won't be a problem, either as it is for some others stars with sexy off bad and mediocre pitching in low-impact games...

You obviously want a supremely talented hitter to be aggressive and look for his pitch to drive, and not be afraid to hit with 2 strikes. Then again, there comes a point when the pitcher is extremely wild and/or refuses to give in for whatever reason, in which case even the most aggressive hitter like Ichiro needs to be smart/disciplined/instinctive enough to take his base and not waste an AB by chasing fastballs shoulders high or sliders in the dirt of the opposing batter's box..... It's common sense, nothing more.

I hope Alexei learns the league enough and continues to make adjustments, so he does end up walking 50-60 times a year as pitchers become increasingly cautious with him. With his speed being an asset, he could make them pay on the basepaths as much as he can with his bat.

johnnyg83
07-23-2008, 10:07 PM
I'd like both players on my team, but if I have to choose, the choice is obvious. Give me Player B. A base hit can score a run even if there's just a runner on second or third. A base hit also can score two runs in the right situation, and an extra base hit can score two or three runs in the right situation. A walk can never score more than one run, and only if the bases are loaded.

This is the crux (not Kruks) of it ... a BB is ALWAYS station to station. And rarely an RBI.

ondafarm
07-23-2008, 10:08 PM
A couple of things about Alexei.

First, this is his first year in the AL, but he's showing himself to be a great player.

About his taking walks. You don't walk off the islands. Seriously, right now, he has a tendency to 'cut loose' a little. In most of his plate appearances, he guesses on one pitch, frequently the first one, and takes a hack at where he thinks it will be. Well, his guesses are more wrong than right at this time. That will improve as he gets more experience in the league, sees more of the pitching staffs and the parks.

It's hard to take that away from him, but it's putting him down in the count more than it should. Next year, he'll be guessing better and guys will be staying away from him more. Both will improve his walk numbers.

Is his OBP a little low? Sure. But I'm not worried about it.

About steals. Alexei has good speed, not blazing speed, but well above average. But stealing bases is as much about knowing pitchers, catchers and first basemen and knowing what pitch is coming. AJ has a few steals this year because he runs on hard breaking stuff or change ups. It is virtually impossible to cut a guy down on a breaking ball in the dirt.

Alexei will be stealing more next year as well. By more I mean 20-30 steals. I'd love to have him batting second next year.

jabrch
07-23-2008, 10:10 PM
A comparison of two players with similar over all stats, but one walks more and has a higher OBP while the other has a higher BA:

Base stats:

620 TPA
.750 OPS

Player A: 550 AB 149 H 70 BB .271 BA .353 OBP .397 SLG = 278 total bases from Plate appearances (219 + 70).

Player B: 600 AB 186 H 20 BB .310 BA .332 OBP .418 SLG = 271 Total bases from Plate appearances (251 + 20).

Player A on the surface gets 7 extra bases for himself, but does that balance the effects that the extra 37 hits and 32 extra bases from XBH that Player B generates? It would depend on the number of times those extra hits/bases were with players on base.

I'd take player B because I'd expect to make up those extra bases lost at the plate on base runners who advance further on hits than on walks, but either way, the "obvious" choice of liking guys who walk a lot doesn't really look that huge when the numbers are run.

I'd take player B because if he is facing a top pitcher in a big game throwing strikes, he's still got a .310 avg. Player A only hits .271 on strikes. Face a stud in the post season - you won't walk so much - you need to hit to win.

johnnyg83
07-23-2008, 10:11 PM
On Saturday night against KC I had scout seats, and he had a triple ... he was one of the fastest home to thirds I've ever seen live.

And was the only highlight of that game.

Adele_H
07-23-2008, 10:20 PM
On Saturday night against KC I had scout seats, and he had a triple ... he was one of the fastest home to thirds I've ever seen live.

.

Yeah, Ramirez from what I've seen is one of the fastest baserunners in the game, considering he's not a small guy either and, as Ondafarm mentioned, lacks that explosive 1st step.

I mean, aside from Mike Cameron and Jose Valentin, how many White Sox players scored from 2nd base on a sac fly in recent years? Alexei knows how to run them bases.

DumpJerry
07-23-2008, 10:23 PM
Alexei has good speed, not blazing speed
Wrong. He as incredible speed. He is one of, if not the, quickest guy out of the Batter's Box when he makes contact with the ball. That is why he gets a lot of infield hits which are routine outs even for fast players.

ondafarm
07-23-2008, 10:54 PM
Wrong. He as incredible speed. He is one of, if not the, quickest guy out of the Batter's Box when he makes contact with the ball. That is why he gets a lot of infield hits which are routine outs even for fast players.

My point is: his base stealing will come around, probably next year. He's not Rickey Henderson, who could steal on anybody.

Tragg
07-23-2008, 11:05 PM
That's untrue. Hitting .310 is ALWAYS a good thing.


It's a good thing when it happens. But the question is can you repeat it - can you do it every year.
Ramirez may be able to....he can actually hit the ball; he drives it. But these slap-hitters who rely on grounders to scoot through the infield, likely can't do it consistently. (even ERstad hit like .360 once - complete fluke but it happened)
A walk is better than an out. It's almost, but not quite, as good as a single. If you frequently hit with few runners on base (top of the order) it's even closer to a single.

Eddo144
07-24-2008, 11:37 AM
I'd take player B because if he is facing a top pitcher in a big game throwing strikes, he's still got a .310 avg. Player A only hits .271 on strikes. Face a stud in the post season - you won't walk so much - you need to hit to win.
This idea that walks are completely up to the pitcher is hogwash. You don't think a hitter can draw a walk for himself? Sometimes pitchers throw strikes that shouldn't be swung at, because they are "out pitches". A stud pitcher will throw a lot of strikes that result in outs.

And why do you assume a .310 hitter will hit .310 against all pitchers, but a .360 OBP guy won't have a .360 OBP against all pitchers? Both numbers should go down against better pitchers.

And the A vs. B comparison is slightly ridiculous. Of course I'd take B - he hits for more power. The situation I brought up was one where the two players have similar slugging percentages, but one has a higher OBP.

Eddo144
07-24-2008, 11:40 AM
My point is: his base stealing will come around, probably next year. He's not Rickey Henderson, who would steal on anybody.
Corrected that for you. Henderson was willing to run on anyone. Tim Raines was the best base-stealer of all time.

Henderson:
1406 SB, 335 CS
81% success rate

Raines:
808 SB, 146 CS
85% success rate

Not saying Henderson wasn't a good base-stealer (81% is still a good success rate), but the best of all time should be someone who (a) steals a lot of bases and (b) picks his spots well. Tim Raines fits that mold.

Eddo144
07-24-2008, 11:41 AM
It's a good thing when it happens. But the question is can you repeat it - can you do it every year.
Ramirez may be able to....he can actually hit the ball; he drives it. But these slap-hitters who rely on grounders to scoot through the infield, likely can't do it consistently. (even ERstad hit like .360 once - complete fluke but it happened)
A walk is better than an out. It's almost, but not quite, as good as a single. If you frequently hit with few runners on base (top of the order) it's even closer to a single.
Perfect, Tragg. Couldn't have said this better myself.

voodoochile
07-24-2008, 11:50 AM
Corrected that for you. Henderson was willing to run on anyone. Tim Raines was the best base-stealer of all time.

Henderson:
1406 SB, 335 CS
81% success rate

Raines:
808 SB, 146 CS
85% success rate

Not saying Henderson wasn't a good base-stealer (81% is still a good success rate), but the best of all time should be someone who (a) steals a lot of bases and (b) picks his spots well. Tim Raines fits that mold.

So the fact that Ricky has 75% more SB than Henderson doesn't mean anything to you?

voodoochile
07-24-2008, 12:01 PM
A comparison of two players with similar over all stats, but one walks more and has a higher OBP while the other has a higher BA:

Base stats:

620 TPA
.400 SLG%

Player A: 550 AB 149 H 70 BB .271 BA .353 OBP = 290 total bases from Plate appearances (220 + 70).

Player B: 600 AB 186 H 20 BB .310 BA .332 OBP = 260 Total bases from Plate appearances (240 + 20).

And the A vs. B comparison is slightly ridiculous. Of course I'd take B - he hits for more power. The situation I brought up was one where the two players have similar slugging percentages, but one has a higher OBP.

Okay, I altered the stats to reflect your intent. Obviously the new numbers change the outcome and it's probably better to take A but not dramatically so and that should be obvious because A has a higher OPS by 20 points, so right away it's obvious which is the better hitter. That doesn't say much because all you are saying is players with higher OPS are better hitters. Not exactly a revelation for the ages, there, Eddo...:wink:

Oh and in fairness, I caught a math mistake in my original example. Player A should have 289 total bases from batting not 278. That does make a difference in the perception that B is obviously better, IMO, but again, with two players with identical OPS, you'd expect to not favor one over the other and both of these players would have roles in a traditional offense (A leads off B bats second for example).

ondafarm
07-24-2008, 12:08 PM
Corrected that for you. Henderson was willing to run on anyone. Tim Raines was the best base-stealer of all time.

Henderson:
1406 SB, 335 CS
81% success rate

Raines:
808 SB, 146 CS
85% success rate

Not saying Henderson wasn't a good base-stealer (81% is still a good success rate), but the best of all time should be someone who (a) steals a lot of bases and (b) picks his spots well. Tim Raines fits that mold.

Fair enough.

IMHO, Henderson was a cocky, crazy base stealing machine. Tim Raines had blazing speed but also a lot of brains. I saw him steal on a bad first-baseman.

Both had the speed to just take off and get to the bag. Raines was the smarter guy who was a better base stealer.

Eddo144
07-24-2008, 01:22 PM
So the fact that Ricky has 75% more SB than Henderson doesn't mean anything to you?
Coupled with the fact that Henderson has 129% more caught stealings, it means that Raines was a better base stealer.

voodoochile
07-24-2008, 01:30 PM
Coupled with the fact that Henderson has 129% more caught stealings, it means that Raines was a better base stealer.

There's something to be said for shear volume especially when it's that big of a difference.

Mar McGwire: 10.61 AB/HR
Babe Ruth: 11.76 AB/HR
Hank Aaron 16.38 AB/HR

Dismissing the steroid stuff and taking these numbers at face value, which would you say is the better HR hitter?

jabrch
07-24-2008, 02:26 PM
I love pencil****ers.

Eddo144
07-24-2008, 03:40 PM
There's something to be said for shear volume especially when it's that big of a difference.

Mar McGwire: 10.61 AB/HR
Babe Ruth: 11.76 AB/HR
Hank Aaron 16.38 AB/HR

Dismissing the steroid stuff and taking these numbers at face value, which would you say is the better HR hitter?
You have a point, and that's why I included the bit about "steals a lot of bases" when determining the best base stealer ever. Tim Raines is 5th all-time. If I had just picked out the player with the highest SB% ever, it would have been Carlos Beltran (at an obscene 88%+), but he has stolen much fewer bases, so his sample size is smaller and you can't be as confident.

To get to your question, Hank Aaron was not the best HR hitter of all time. He has the most HR. It may sound like semantics, but it's an important distinction. Aaron played a long, long time, which is why he also has the most RBI ever and the third most hits ever (most people don't know about that one).

And I don't think I'd call McGwire the best HR hitter of all time, just because he has the best HR rate. I'd probably still go with Ruth, as he played in an era where guys didn't hit a lot of HR and he was that much better than the rest of the field.

jabrch
07-24-2008, 03:57 PM
You have a point, and that's why I included the bit about "steals a lot of bases" when determining the best base stealer ever. Tim Raines is 5th all-time. If I had just picked out the player with the highest SB% ever, it would have been Carlos Beltran (at an obscene 88%+), but he has stolen much fewer bases, so his sample size is smaller and you can't be as confident.

To get to your question, Hank Aaron was not the best HR hitter of all time. He has the most HR. It may sound like semantics, but it's an important distinction. Aaron played a long, long time, which is why he also has the most RBI ever and the third most hits ever (most people don't know about that one).

And I don't think I'd call McGwire the best HR hitter of all time, just because he has the best HR rate. I'd probably still go with Ruth, as he played in an era where guys didn't hit a lot of HR and he was that much better than the rest of the field.

You are making a subjective judgement - and then saying other people's equally subjective judgement is wrong. That's silly.

Best base stealer? Who the hell knows? You can make a good arguement for Henderson or Raines. You can also make a good arguement for Brock. You can also do the same for Coleman. Maury Wills is in the team picture.

Same is true for HR hitter. Outside the Roiders, you have to look at Ruth and Aaron. Fox and Greenberg need evaluation. Other decades need consideration - Reggie and Schmidt from the 70s/80s, A-Rod and Thome from the list of current ballplayers (roid free). In any case, you can't say who is "Better" or "Best" and who is not best unless you define "Better" or "Best" better. You certainly can't say Voo is wrong for his choice of best without agreeing to the definition.

Eddo144
07-24-2008, 05:23 PM
You are making a subjective judgement - and then saying other people's equally subjective judgement is wrong. That's silly.

...<snip>...

You certainly can't say Voo is wrong for his choice of best without agreeing to the definition.
Well of course it's all subjective, and I don't have the definitive "correct" answer of who's the best base stealer or HR hitter. Isn't the notion that all this is opinion implied by the fact that we're on a message board right now, and not handing down stone tablets with Holy Baseball Law on them?

Of course, I apologize to Voo if I came across as holier-than-thou. I was just giving my opinion, and assumed he was doing the same. Hopefully there's no hard feelings?

voodoochile
07-24-2008, 06:04 PM
Well of course it's all subjective, and I don't have the definitive "correct" answer of who's the best base stealer or HR hitter. Isn't the notion that all this is opinion implied by the fact that we're on a message board right now, and not handing down stone tablets with Holy Baseball Law on them?

Of course, I apologize to Voo if I came across as holier-than-thou. I was just giving my opinion, and assumed he was doing the same. Hopefully there's no hard feelings?

Wouldn't be much point to a message board if every thread tarted only had people agreeing with the original post.

In other words... none taken...:D:

pczarapa
07-24-2008, 11:37 PM
... amazing find, Kenny. Amazing. Good D, long, cheap contract. Good power, speed, arm ...

Someone needs to give Alexie some more per diem for dinner, but he's a darn good player.