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itsnotrequired
07-21-2008, 07:54 AM
Lots of hand wringing this year over stranding runners. But how bad is it? I looked this up this morning and was blowed away. The Sox have stranded 669 runners this season, THIRD BEST in the AL. Only the Royals and Angels have stranded fewer. Red Sox "lead" the league with 759 stranded. Imagine being a Boston fan and stranding nearly a full baserunner more per game when compared to the Sox.

The Sox are also tied with Baltimore for second best AVE with RISP (.281). Twins lead that category at .313. So what's getting Sox fan's goat this year?

AVE with RISP and two outs: .191, dead last in the AL.

Twins are leading at .284. To confound the situation, the Sox also have the fewest ABs with RISP and two outs. Only 356. Rangers have had 443 of them and six AL teams have over 400 ABs in this scenario. So not only are the Sox hitting like garbage with RISP and two outs, they aren't getting nearly as many opportunities when compared to the rest of the league.

Discus.

tebman
07-21-2008, 08:17 AM
Discus.

http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/52/18352-004-73DFC7B4.jpg

tebman
07-21-2008, 08:22 AM
AVE with RISP and two outs: .191, dead last in the AL.

Twins are leading at .284. To confound the situation, the Sox also have the fewest ABs with RISP and two outs. Only 356. Rangers have had 443 of them and six AL teams have over 400 ABs in this scenario. So not only are the Sox hitting like garbage with RISP and two outs, they aren't getting nearly as many opportunities when compared to the rest of the league.


Thanks for the research, inr -- that confirms my suspicion. I get a sinking feeling whenever the Sox get a hit or two with two outs because I'm confident they won't score.

How to fix it? Hypnotism? Meditation? I'm sure Guillen and Walker wish they knew.

Mohoney
07-21-2008, 08:24 AM
INR, I was wondering what site you got all the AL team numbers from. I would like to figure out how they stack up with the rest of the AL in percentage of runners stranded, as opposed to just a concrete total of runners stranded.

itsnotrequired
07-21-2008, 08:44 AM
INR, I was wondering what site you got all the AL team numbers from. I would like to figure out how they stack up with the rest of the AL in percentage of runners stranded, as opposed to just a concrete total of runners stranded.

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/stats/teamsort/regularseason/yearly/AL/HIT/EXT?&_1:col_1=12

I can't find a "total baserunner" stat (mlb.com is giving me problems).

EDIT: Okay, I divided the LOB totals by "plate apperances with runners on" totals. This developes a "runners left on base per plate appearance" stat. With this one, surprise-surprise, Twins top the list with .390 runners stranded per plate appearance. Tampa Bay is at the bottom with .425. Sox rank 5th at .409. So the Sox are in the top half of the AL but not by much.

:shrug:

kjhanson
07-21-2008, 09:20 AM
So not only are the Sox hitting like garbage with RISP and two outs, they aren't getting nearly as many opportunities when compared to the rest of the league.


The lack of two out opportunities is related to their success driving men in with less than two outs, so I would add 0 value to "number of at-bats with RISP and 2 outs".

However, the 2-out clutch hitting has been atrocious. When our pitchers don't leave runners stranded with 2 outs I get extra pissed because I'm so used to seeing our guys fail in those situations.

itsnotrequired
07-21-2008, 09:36 AM
The lack of two out opportunities is related to their success driving men in with less than two outs, so I would add 0 value to "number of at-bats with RISP and 2 outs".

I certainly wouldn't place "zero value" on hitting with RISP and two outs. That is one of dem der clutch situations you hear all the young people raving about. It could be that they had success earlier in the inning or it could be they didn't get RISP until there were already two outs.

Those numbers with RISP and two outs are abysmal. The Angels have 24 more PAs than the Sox in these situations but have totaled 32 more hits, 20 more runs, etc.

spiffie
07-21-2008, 09:58 AM
All this LOB and RISP stuff sounds like calculus, and baseball isn't played with a calculator.

You hit the ball, you catch the ball, you throw the ball. Do that and you win. Problem solved. I don't care about any number that needs some sort of advanced calculus to figure out. :scratch:

itsnotrequired
07-21-2008, 10:03 AM
"lob" is short for lobotomy and "risp" is short for rispekt.

kjhanson
07-21-2008, 10:51 AM
I certainly wouldn't place "zero value" on hitting with RISP and two outs. That is one of dem der clutch situations you hear all the young people raving about. It could be that they had success earlier in the inning or it could be they didn't get RISP until there were already two outs.


I place supreme value on BA with RISP with 2 outs. There's nothing more demoralizing than a 2 out RBI. Take for instance yesterday. Danks gave up four straight hits in the first and I could hear quite a few fans booing. Three batters later he had still only given up the two runs, and everyone was clapping in anticipation of the third out and escaping damage. Another base hit, and the fans were back to booing. The whole place was deflated.

In the bottom of the first, Thome's 2-out hit ignited the place. Then the walk, then the Crede strikeout. That strikeout deflated the place once again.

I just don't think that "total opportunites with 2-outs, RISP" is an important measure. If you clear the bases early in the inning, which the Sox have been better at, certainly you'll have less people on with 2 outs.

munchman33
07-21-2008, 11:00 AM
That stat is so meaningless.

The RISP stat doesn't tell you if the games a blowout or not.

When it comes down to it, when this team needs a big hit, we can't get it.

Vestigio
07-21-2008, 11:39 AM
The Sox are also tied with Baltimore for second best AVE with RISP (.281). Twins lead that category at .313. So what's getting Sox fan's goat this year?

This is the main reason why, I think, the Twins are playing above their heads. Their AVG w/ RISP should level out, atleast I'm hoping...

shes
07-21-2008, 11:59 AM
All this LOB and RISP stuff sounds like calculus, and baseball isn't played with a calculator.

You hit the ball, you catch the ball, you throw the ball. Do that and you win. Problem solved. I don't care about any number that needs some sort of advanced calculus to figure out. :scratch:

advanced statistics allow you to better ascertain why a player/team is succeeding or failing in general or in a certain respect. i think they are quite valuable in that regard.

itsnotrequired
07-21-2008, 12:29 PM
That stat is so meaningless.

The RISP stat doesn't tell you if the games a blowout or not.

When it comes down to it, when this team needs a big hit, we can't get it.

The state isn't meaningless. It reflects how well players are hitting the ball with opportunities to score. Sure, it doesn't guarentee wins or loses but no stat does that.

In the nebulous "close and late" situation, the Sox are hitting .268, good enough for a tie for third in the AL. Minnesota leads that category at .280. How many walk-off wins do the Sox have?

I feel this team is more "clutch" than a lot of people give them credit for, at least compared to their peers.

turners56
07-21-2008, 01:27 PM
Maybe Cox should of held A.J. yesterday considering Thome hits .103 with RISP and 2 outs, but .289 with RISP overall...

thomas35forever
07-21-2008, 03:23 PM
I'm pretty sure this thread was created to silence those who think we're leaving too many runners on, so wake up, people. That's all I've got to say.

BadBobbyJenks
07-21-2008, 03:30 PM
We score in bunches and then we don't score at all. The stats don't tell that story and that is what is so frustrating.

itsnotrequired
07-21-2008, 04:38 PM
We score in bunches and then we don't score at all. The stats don't tell that story and that is what is so frustrating.

that's why this team is so bizzaro

Lip Man 1
07-21-2008, 06:36 PM
Bad Bobby:

Unless you haven't been paying attention this decade, with the notable exception of 2005, that has been the Sox M.O.

Lip

BadBobbyJenks
07-21-2008, 06:58 PM
Bad Bobby:

Unless you haven't been paying attention this decade, with the notable exception of 2005, that has been the Sox M.O.

Lip

Have you ever seen numbers like this though? Hitting .280 with runners in scoring position and in the .190 with two outs and RISP?

kitekrazy
07-21-2008, 09:07 PM
This is the main reason why, I think, the Twins are playing above their heads. Their AVG w/ RISP should level out, atleast I'm hoping...

I just think the Twins know that the game is not played on paper and rely on fundamentals to get them there.

Mohoney
07-22-2008, 10:58 AM
I really wish I had some kind of statistical software to back my claim up, but I think that the 2 most important keys to winning baseball are scoring 2 out runs more than most teams, and having more scoreless relief appearances than most teams. It seems that the "hidden" wins and losses come from scoring 2 out runs and scoreless innings from the bullpen.

spiffie
07-22-2008, 11:06 AM
I really wish I had some kind of statistical software to back my claim up, but I think that the 2 most important keys to winning baseball are scoring 2 out runs more than most teams, and having more scoreless relief appearances than most teams. It seems that the "hidden" wins and losses come from scoring 2 out runs and scoreless innings from the bullpen.
I think the most important keys to winning baseball are scoring runs and stopping the other team from scoring runs.

The game is very simple. Hit ball, catch ball, throw ball. Do that well, and all the numbers in the world won't matter, you'll be a winning team.

turners56
07-22-2008, 11:07 AM
I'm pretty sure this thread was created to silence those who think we're leaving too many runners on, so wake up, people. That's all I've got to say.

Or we play like we did yesterday and ground into numerous double plays.

cburns
07-22-2008, 06:59 PM
2 out basehits are usually hard to come by. What frustrates me more than anything is the situational hitting. Anytime the White Sox get a sac fly it is cause for celebration. Personally I'm more mad at the guy who doesn't move the runner to third with no outs, or the guy who can't get the sac fly than than the batter who can't come through with a basehit in a 2 out situation.

TheVulture
07-23-2008, 01:47 AM
Seems to me the best offenses would have the most LOB because they have more baserunners to begin with. You could score 10 runs in an inning and still leave 3 runners on base. I'd think BA with runners on base or a percentage of total baserunners stranded would be a better stat to look at to guage it.