View Full Version : Stat heads

Bmr31

05-08-2002, 02:14 PM

I was just thinking.....to judge a true value of a hitter, you could total the number of bases advanced they created, including themselves and compare it to the number of outs they created. Is there a such comparison already? Im sure there is, whats it called?

Bmr31

05-08-2002, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by Bmr31

I was just thinking.....to judge a true value of a hitter, you could total the number of bases advanced they created, including themselves and compare it to the number of outs they created. Is there a such comparison already? Im sure there is, whats it called?

what i mean is......stolen base +1 , grand slam +10, sac fly +1, whiff -1, dp -2 , reach safely on error +1, sac bunt with 2 on +2 etc

Soxboyrob

05-08-2002, 02:25 PM

I guess the reason some would question the value of such a stat is due to the fact that it is heavily dependent on the guys batting in front of you and whether or not they are on base so that you could advance them with a hit, a walk, whatever. Also, such a stat wouldn't take that batter's ability to score runs into account, which can often be a product of his speed and basestealing. The best stat I've seen has been the Runs Created stat developed, I think, by Bill James. It takes all of a batters abilities into account....BA, slg, OBP, walks, DPs, SBs and plugs them into an equation and basically tells you how many runs a batting order full of that particular batter would score in a given game or how many runs just that hitter was responsible for producing over the course of the entire year. It's pretty cool and has been tested against teams' year-end statistics and runs scored and, I've heard, has a standard margin of error between just 1 and 2 percent.

The Runs Created stat is primarily used for Rotisserie leagues from what I hear and I've yet to really find a site that lists them. You more or less have to figure out the hitter's RC on your own by putting his numbers into a fairly lengthy and cumbersome equation.

Bmr31

05-08-2002, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by Soxboyrob

I guess the reason some would question the value of such a stat is due to the fact that it is heavily dependent on the guys batting in front of you and whether or not they are on base so that you could advance them with a hit, a walk, whatever. Also, such a stat wouldn't take that batter's ability to score runs into account, which can often be a product of his speed and basestealing. The best stat I've seen has been the Runs Created stat developed, I think, by Bill James. It takes all of a batters abilities into account....BA, slg, OBP, walks, DPs, SBs and plugs them into an equation and basically tells you how many runs a batting order full of that particular batter would score in a given game or how many runs just that hitter was responsible for producing over the course of the entire year. It's pretty cool and has been tested against teams' year-end statistics and runs scored and, I've heard, has a standard margin of error between just 1 and 2 percent.

The Runs Created stat is primarily used for Rotisserie leagues from what I hear and I've yet to really find a site that lists them. You more or less have to figure out the hitter's RC on your own by putting his numbers into a fairly lengthy and cumbersome equation.

my stat does take runs scored ,because its a base advanced. What i meant is add ANY base advanced that teh player was involved in and compare it to any out the player created.

voodoochile

05-08-2002, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by Bmr31

my stat does take runs scored ,because its a base advanced. What i meant is add ANY base advanced that teh player was involved in and compare it to any out the player created.

I suggested a very similar stat a few years ago early on at WSI...

Yours is more complete because it takes into account outs generated, but I remember having a discussion and breaking down a potential season by Frank Thomas (based on estimates and that years stats) and finding the results remarkably similar to OPS...

Mine was just an estimate and that post is long buried in the annals of the Internet, but I always did like the idea because it is an actual measurement of bases generated

Soxboyrob

05-08-2002, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Bmr31

my stat does take runs scored ,because its a base advanced. What i meant is add ANY base advanced that teh player was involved in and compare it to any out the player created.

I see. I didn't gather that in your initial explanation. The RC formula amazingly doesn't care how many RBI or Runs Scored you had. It doesn't ask for HRs or 3b's or doubles. It only wants to know things like total bases, walks, at bats, etc....it does all of its own calculations. If anyone knows of a site that keeps the RC or RC/27 stat that doesn't charge for use of the site, please post a URL. The nice thing is that it assigns value for forgotten things like the guy that maybe gets a walk and moves over a runner from first to second and allows that runner to score on a single. The hitter that took the walk doesn't get a RS or RBI but still gets some credit in the RC/27 stat.

Soxboyrob

05-08-2002, 04:37 PM

Just a note....Baseballreference.com now includes a column called RC, whereby a number is given to show that player's actual contribution to his team's run production that season. Interestingly, I checked Frank Thomas' best season (in my opinion it's '94) and a batting order of 9 Frank Thomases that season would have averaged 13.64 runs per game.

Other notables....

Frank in 2000, RC/27.......10.28 runs per game.

Sosa in 2001, ..................12.37 runs per game.

Bonds in 2001,.................17.10 runs per game.

Clayton in 2001................4.00 runs per game.

Nellie Fox in '59................5.35 runs per game.

Dick Allen in '72.................9.24 runs per game.

Career numbers for a lineup of 9 of the same guy.

Frank in his career...........9.39

Dick Allen.........................7.25

Sammy Sosa....................6.48

Clayton............................3.87

Barry Bonds.....................8.77

Nellie................................4.34

FarWestChicago

05-08-2002, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by Soxboyrob

Career numbers for a lineup of 9 of the same guy.

Frank in his career...........9.39

Dick Allen.........................7.25

Sammy Sosa....................6.48

Clayton............................3.87

Barry Bonds.....................8.77

Nellie................................4.34 Yep, Frank really sucks.

kermittheefrog

05-08-2002, 05:55 PM

There is actually a stat out there like that BMR. It's called Base Out Percentage, it was invented by a guy named Barry Codell back in the 60s or 70s. The results come out similar to OPS but doesn't have as much correlation to runs scored when you run regression. Total Average is also computed similarly.

Bmr31

05-08-2002, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by kermittheefrog

There is actually a stat out there like that BMR. It's called Base Out Percentage, it was invented by a guy named Barry Codell back in the 60s or 70s. The results come out similar to OPS but doesn't have as much correlation to runs scored when you run regression. Total Average is also computed similarly.

hmm well i figured it was out there. sounds like a great indicator to me.

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