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Lip Man 1
05-03-2008, 07:36 PM
Can't take credit for this one. Mark Gonzales has it on his Hardball blog at the Tribune.

Apparently Quentin's eighth home run this afternoon was the eighth consecutive SOLO home run by the Sox. Also 14 of their past 15 have been solo shots.

This season, the Sox have hit 27 of their 38 homers with no one on base.

Sound worse then last season to me. Apparently getting all those walks as a team, isn't changing the dynamic that much.

Lip

JB98
05-03-2008, 07:51 PM
The first two weeks, we hit a bunch of grand slams and 3-run shots. Crede had his two slams. Konerko hit a slam. AJ, Quentin and Thome all hit game-winning, 3-run bombs.

Starting with the last homestand, it's been all solo shots, with the exception of Swisher's two-run blast vs. Baltimore a week ago tonight.

veeter
05-03-2008, 07:51 PM
They've totally stopped walking. That's another factor in this slide. The teams selectivity has gone away lead by AJ and Dye. To me it's never a bad thing to keep hitting homeruns. They're solo because noone is ever on base. The Sox, Ozzie and the coaches, have to figure out why, for nearly two years now, the team curls up into a little ball, for weeks at a time. I mean have some fun for gosh sakes.

JB98
05-03-2008, 07:53 PM
They've totally stopped walking. That's another factor in this slide. The teams selectivity has gone away lead by AJ and Dye. To me it's never a bad thing to keep hitting homeruns. They're solo because noone is ever on base. The Sox, Ozzie and the coaches, have to figure out why, for nearly two years now, the team curls up into a little ball, for weeks at a time. I mean have some fun for gosh sakes.

Yeah, the long faces and the moping have begun already. All it took was two losses in the Twinkie Dome for this team to meltdown mentally and start pressing.

You would think they had lost eight out of 10, when you look at the body language of this team right now.

SoxGirl4Life
05-03-2008, 08:06 PM
Another interesting fact (courtesy of Farmio): last year, we had a Minny/Toronto road trip in May and went 1-6. Apparently, we never recovered enough to see .500 again.

Noneck
05-03-2008, 08:20 PM
How Sox rank:

Current A.L Ranking : Hits 14th, Hr 1st, BB 4th, Runs 7th

2007 A.L. Ranking: Hits 14th, Hr 2nd, BB 7th, Runs 14th

Record after 28 games this year, 14-14

Record after 28 games last year, 14-14


I don't like to compare but I don't like what I see.

A. Cavatica
05-03-2008, 08:32 PM
How Sox rank:

Current A.L Ranking : Hits 14th, Hr 1st, BB 4th, Runs 7th

2007 A.L. Ranking: Hits 14th, Hr 2nd, BB 7th, Runs 14th

Record after 28 games this year, 14-14

Record after 28 games last year, 14-14


I don't like to compare but I don't like what I see.

I like that run production is up, but nobody on this team can hit for average. Well, Cabrera can, but he's been completely MIA so far.

I don't like that we're losing in spite of good performances by our starters. I'm as happy as anyone that Floyd, Danks, and Contreras have started out strongly -- but do you really think any of them can pitch this well all year?

Chicken Dinner
05-03-2008, 08:45 PM
It's pretty clear that the reason the Sox hit so many solo homers is that no one is getting on base. :o:

SoxGirl4Life
05-03-2008, 08:50 PM
It's pretty clear that the reason the Sox hit so many solo homers is that no one is getting on base. :o:


:scratch: Maybe that's their answer to leaving so many men on base? (Monday's problem).

soxfan21
05-03-2008, 09:00 PM
I just miss all of the fun these guys were having just 2 short weeks ago. Everybody seemed pumped and ready to play everygame, and the dugout was always giving everyone high fives after big plays and key hits. I am already getting tired of watching these guys moping around so much. It seems like every one of these last 5 games (including the suspended game) that they were losses before the team even took the field IMO. I want these guys to have fun again and go out on the field loose and ready to play. I think that when this happens that we will start to see more wins out of these guys and it will become more fun for us to watch them.

Sox
05-03-2008, 09:17 PM
Another interesting fact (courtesy of Farmio): last year, we had a Minny/Toronto road trip in May and went 1-6. Apparently, we never recovered enough to see .500 again.

Shhhhh!!!! don't say that to loud, the last thing I want is for this team to go down that road again.....:o:

PeoriaSoxFan
05-03-2008, 10:12 PM
:scratch:Very depressing stats. The HR thing makes no sense, since the OBP is up, but wow and yuck. I keep hope for a lightening bolt to strike and wake everyone up, but I waited for that, to no avail, last year.

NADA SURF
05-03-2008, 11:20 PM
Can't take credit for this one. Mark Gonzales has it on his Hardball blog at the Tribune.

Apparently Quentin's eighth home run this afternoon was the eighth consecutive SOLO home run by the Sox. Also 14 of their past 15 have been solo shots.

This season, the Sox have hit 27 of their 38 homers with no one on base.

Sound worse then last season to me. Apparently getting all those walks as a team, isn't changing the dynamic that much.

Lip
These guys tear into the ball when there's nobody on...
They seem to freeze up and get antsy with runners on, jumping on the first pitch and failing to take the outside pitch the other way...
It's been a problem for two years now.

NADA SURF
05-03-2008, 11:24 PM
Yeah, the long faces and the moping have begun already. All it took was two losses in the Twinkie Dome for this team to meltdown mentally and start pressing.

You would think they had lost eight out of 10, when you look at the body language of this team right now.
It's the sign of a team of losers...
But it's a long season and many of these guys are veterans will get their numbers...
However, they've already thrown away wins that the pitching staff has provided for them and they may not get many of those performances back.
If you believe in Hawk's 60 wins/60 losses/what ya do with the other 42 theory --and I do believe in it--we could already be in trouble.

NADA SURF
05-03-2008, 11:27 PM
It's pretty clear that the reason the Sox hit so many solo homers is that no one is getting on base. :o:
And I remember meeting you at a spring game, Mr. Dinner...
The reason many haven't been getting on is that this offense is too one-dimensional, prone to slumps...
It won't manufacture runs.

Boondock Saint
05-03-2008, 11:52 PM
I think a lot of it has to do with who is hitting where. 3-4-5 are hitting terribly right now, so even if 1-2 get on, chances are they aren't getting knocked in. And our 7-8-9 guys include Uribe, BA and Alexei, all of whom have trouble taking bad pitches. So basically, even if guys are getting on, some guys who are really struggling are only 1 or 2 at bats away.

TDog
05-04-2008, 12:34 AM
:scratch:Very depressing stats. The HR thing makes no sense, since the OBP is up, but wow and yuck. I keep hope for a lightening bolt to strike and wake everyone up, but I waited for that, to no avail, last year.

Is the OBP up? I think OBP is an overrated stat, so I've never paid attention to it. Quickly, in my head, I figured the team has had a batting average of about .239 over the last seven games. The OBP would be .269. Actually, it would be a little higher because I just realized I forgot to figure in hit batsman. If there were only three, that would raise the OBP to .278. Honestly, I don't know if that's good or even if it's better than last year.

I know that today the Sox didn't walk at all, and in another game I looked at the Sox only walked once. They haven't had a double-digit hits game either.

This team needs to hit, not walk. Too many hitters seem to be in the hole at the plate. Taking a lot of pitches doesn't get you anywhere when the pitcher is throwing strikes, or at least the umpire is calling strikes.

The solo home run total is a refection of the fact that the Sox only had six baserunners today, six baserunners yesterday etc. Only Wednesday afternoon against the Twins and the suspended game with all of the wasted opportunities and extra innings did the Sox have more than eight baserunners in the last week.

FarWestChicago
05-04-2008, 06:56 AM
Can't take credit for this one. Mark Gonzales has it on his Hardball blog at the Tribune.

Apparently Quentin's eighth home run this afternoon was the eighth consecutive SOLO home run by the Sox. Also 14 of their past 15 have been solo shots.

This season, the Sox have hit 27 of their 38 homers with no one on base.

Sound worse then last season to me. Apparently getting all those walks as a team, isn't changing the dynamic that much.

Lip

:scratch:Very depressing stats. The HR thing makes no sense, since the OBP is up, but wow and yuck. I keep hope for a lightening bolt to strike and wake everyone up, but I waited for that, to no avail, last year.Depressing and Lip go hand in hand. There are no neo-Clouds who can compete with the master. Lip is the Emperor. The rest are interchangeable Sith lords. The most they can aspire to is one of those exceedingly cool Darth Maul staffs.

Craig Grebeck
05-04-2008, 08:38 AM
Is the OBP up? I think OBP is an overrated stat, so I've never paid attention to it. Quickly, in my head, I figured the team has had a batting average of about .239 over the last seven games. The OBP would be .269. Actually, it would be a little higher because I just realized I forgot to figure in hit batsman. If there were only three, that would raise the OBP to .278. Honestly, I don't know if that's good or even if it's better than last year.

I know that today the Sox didn't walk at all, and in another game I looked at the Sox only walked once. They haven't had a double-digit hits game either.

This team needs to hit, not walk. Too many hitters seem to be in the hole at the plate. Taking a lot of pitches doesn't get you anywhere when the pitcher is throwing strikes, or at least the umpire is calling strikes.

The solo home run total is a refection of the fact that the Sox only had six baserunners today, six baserunners yesterday etc. Only Wednesday afternoon against the Twins and the suspended game with all of the wasted opportunities and extra innings did the Sox have more than eight baserunners in the last week.
I fail to find the words.

itsnotrequired
05-04-2008, 08:50 AM
I think a lot of it has to do with who is hitting where. 3-4-5 are hitting terribly right now, so even if 1-2 get on, chances are they aren't getting knocked in. And our 7-8-9 guys include Uribe, BA and Alexei, all of whom have trouble taking bad pitches. So basically, even if guys are getting on, some guys who are really struggling are only 1 or 2 at bats away.

Swisher is getting on base at a .300 clip over the last week or so. Not great but it really doesn't matter if the 3-4-5 guys aren't bringing him in. Over the last week, Thome, Konerko and Dye have knocked in a TOTAL of 5 runs. Oh, and three of those five were solo home runs.

Cabrera has an OBP of .160 over the last week. He has been worthless at the plate.

TDog
05-04-2008, 12:15 PM
I fail to find the words.

Last year the A's (the team for which Nick Swisher was getting on base) had a mediocre season, a mediocre offense and the biggest difference between batting average and on-base percentage. They scored fewer runs than five teams that had lower on-base percentages. While driving home at night, I would hear on the radio people complaining about how the A's need to change their organizational strategy and get players who give hitting a higher priority than walking.

The A's scored 227 runs fewer than the Yankees, not because the Yankees' on-base percentage was .028 higher, but because the Yankees' batting average was .034 higher and the Yankees' slugging percentage was .056 higher.

Getting on base is a good thing if you drive people in. Getting on base for the sake of getting on base results in games like Monday, which would have been a loss in April instead of a game to be completed in August if not for the apparently dreaded solo home run -- damn you Juan Uribe for not working a lead-off walk.

You can break baseball down into stats that tell you who is playing better. I've read here that Baseball Prospectus is so good at doing so that they it will tell you who really should have won. If a pitcher is wild and walks hitters, you take the walks. If a pitcher works around Thome and gives up a home run to Konerko, the Sox have taken everything they can from what the pitcher has given them. Teams have to drive in runners when they get on base.

This year, by the way, the White Sox OBP is up, as if it matters. Last year, the Sox finished last in the American League with an OBP of .318. This year they have an OBP of .326 so far. Opponents have an OBP of .319. That's why the Sox are rolling over so many teams this year, I guess.

Craig Grebeck
05-04-2008, 12:50 PM
Last year the A's (the team for which Nick Swisher was getting on base) had a mediocre season, a mediocre offense and the biggest difference between batting average and on-base percentage. They scored fewer runs than five teams that had lower on-base percentages. While driving home at night, I would hear on the radio people complaining about how the A's need to change their organizational strategy and get players who give hitting a higher priority than walking.

The A's scored 227 runs fewer than the Yankees, not because the Yankees' on-base percentage was .028 higher, but because the Yankees' batting average was .034 higher and the Yankees' slugging percentage was .056 higher.

Getting on base is a good thing if you drive people in. Getting on base for the sake of getting on base results in games like Monday, which would have been a loss in April instead of a game to be completed in August if not for the apparently dreaded solo home run -- damn you Juan Uribe for not working a lead-off walk.

You can break baseball down into stats that tell you who is playing better. I've read here that Baseball Prospectus is so good at doing so that they it will tell you who really should have won. If a pitcher is wild and walks hitters, you take the walks. If a pitcher works around Thome and gives up a home run to Konerko, the Sox have taken everything they can from what the pitcher has given them. Teams have to drive in runners when they get on base.

This year, by the way, the White Sox OBP is up, as if it matters. Last year, the Sox finished last in the American League with an OBP of .318. This year they have an OBP of .326 so far. Opponents have an OBP of .319. That's why the Sox are rolling over so many teams this year, I guess.
You are simplifying it's importance. Obviously a HR is better than a walk. But OBP is infinitely more important than AVG and SLG.

white sox bill
05-04-2008, 01:13 PM
Yep that our boyzz...all or nothing at bat wise. Lately its been nothing:angry:

Sox It To Em
05-04-2008, 01:15 PM
Is the OBP up? I think OBP is an overrated stat, so I've never paid attention to it. Quickly, in my head, I figured the team has had a batting average of about .239 over the last seven games. The OBP would be .269. Actually, it would be a little higher because I just realized I forgot to figure in hit batsman. If there were only three, that would raise the OBP to .278. Honestly, I don't know if that's good or even if it's better than last year.

I want you to be promoted GM of the Indians.

OBP, while not tell-all, is the basic statistic that correlates most highly with run scoring. This is a fact.

TDog
05-04-2008, 01:20 PM
You are simplifying it's importance. Obviously a HR is better than a walk. But OBP is infinitely more important than AVG and SLG.

This thread started with a complaint about solo home runs, hence the home run reference. The importance people put on OBP in isolation is clearly exaggerated. The team with the best on-base percentages have superior batting averages and superior slugging percentages. Batting averages are reflected in on-base percentages. Teams that can hit and teams that can slug draw more walks because pitchers are more careful with them. Teams with weak hitting may face wild pitchers, but they won't strike the sort of fear into a pitcher that will generate as many walks.

The people who look at on-base percentage as being an infinitely more important stat than batting average or slugging percentage are simplifying and exaggerating its importance.

[(walks+hit batsmen+hits)/plate appearances-(sacrifice bunts+bases on catchers interference)] is to what degree is superior to hits/at bats? Is it infinite? Is it to the power of 10? The power of 2?

How does on-base percentage translate to runs scored. I can't find any consistent formula when I look at last year's team averages.

The stat that matters is runs scored compared with opponents' runs scored on a daily basis.

Craig Grebeck
05-04-2008, 01:30 PM
OBP is about taking pitches and being selective. The more selective you are, the better pitches you will see. The better pitches you see, the more you will hit.

TDog
05-04-2008, 02:09 PM
OBP is about taking pitches and being selective. The more selective you are, the better pitches you will see. The better pitches you see, the more you will hit.

If you're Ted Williams. Most players can't hit well with two strikes, and I don't think anyone is a better hitter with two strikes. Coming into today's game, Nick Swisher had a batting average of .125 with three strikeouts and one hit in the eight times his at bats have ended at 0-2. At 3-2, he is hitting .067, getting only 1 hit, a single, in 15 at bats, but his 11 walks raise his on-base percentage to .462. He gets on base when he works the count full, but he hasn't been a better hitter. Altogether he has been up 45 times through Saturday with two strikes, and he is only hitting .156 -- .052 below his overall average in the other 54.5 percent of his at bats.

Looking at the stats, you have to wonder if Swisher is being too selective, passing up good pitches for pitches he can't handle as well.

Most hitters are going to only get one pitch they can hit in most at bats. There is nothing wrong with swinging at the first pitch if it's your pitch. as Konerko did when he hit his grand slam in Game 2 of the 2005 World Series.

Hitting isn't easy. It requires all sorts of skills I lack. You have little time to recognize a pitch you can hit well, and even if you hit it well, you may be unsuccessful. Coaches try to teach hitters not to swing at bad pitches, which isn't easy on the face of it because such pitches often look good because that's the point of the art of pitching. Taking good pitches to the point where you are left with tougher pitches to hit is a secondary problem.

I'm not the one oversimplifying. Having a great team on-base percentage is great if your team hits. It starts with hitting.

Craig Grebeck
05-04-2008, 02:24 PM
If you're Ted Williams. Most players can't hit well with two strikes, and I don't think anyone is a better hitter with two strikes. Coming into today's game, Nick Swisher had a batting average of .125 with three strikeouts and one hit in the eight times his at bats have ended at 0-2. At 3-2, he is hitting .067, getting only 1 hit, a single, in 15 at bats, but his 11 walks raise his on-base percentage to .462. He gets on base when he works the count full, but he hasn't been a better hitter. Altogether he has been up 45 times through Saturday with two strikes, and he is only hitting .156 -- .052 below his overall average in the other 54.5 percent of his at bats.

Looking at the stats, you have to wonder if Swisher is being too selective, passing up good pitches for pitches he can't handle as well.

Most hitters are going to only get one pitch they can hit in most at bats. There is nothing wrong with swinging at the first pitch if it's your pitch. as Konerko did when he hit his grand slam in Game 2 of the 2005 World Series.

Hitting isn't easy. It requires all sorts of skills I lack. You have little time to recognize a pitch you can hit well, and even if you hit it well, you may be unsuccessful. Coaches try to teach hitters not to swing at bad pitches, which isn't easy on the face of it because such pitches often look good because that's the point of the art of pitching. Taking good pitches to the point where you are left with tougher pitches to hit is a secondary problem.

I'm not the one oversimplifying. Having a great team on-base percentage is great if your team hits. It starts with hitting.
How do you explain teams with high BA and low OBP?

TDog
05-04-2008, 02:34 PM
How do you explain teams with high BA and low OBP?

I can't explain it because your terms are so vague I have no idea what you are talking about. A team can only have a lower on-base percentage than its batting average if it hits a lot of sacrifice flies and never walks.

Show me a team with a high batting average and a high slugging percentage and I won't need to look at their on-base percentage to see if they are scoring runs. Chances are, those teams also have high on-base percentages. I would, however, have to look at their pitching to see if they are winning games.

JB98
05-04-2008, 02:43 PM
Looking at the stats, you have to wonder if Swisher is being too selective, passing up good pitches for pitches he can't handle as well.

DING DING DING DING DING! From watching games, I've felt like Swisher is being too selective. I want more aggression from him. His batting average and slugging percentage are down because he's trying too hard to draw walks, IMO.

RockyMtnSoxFan
05-08-2008, 07:16 PM
It's pretty clear that the reason the Sox hit so many solo homers is that no one is getting on base. :o:

Of course it is. That's what makes them solo. But perhaps the reason that no one is getting on base is that they are all trying to hit home runs, taking huge swings from their heels rather then shortening up their stroke and trying to line the ball to the outfield.

One of the problems with the OBP obsession, and the high value placed on guys like Swisher, is that you can't score from second on a walk. With that approach, you are basically expecting to hit lots of home runs. The problem is that, even for a team playing in a HR-inclined park like Comiskey, most hits are not home runs. Singles are the most common type of hit. The walks-and-home runs strategy ignores the most likely form of offensive success, and focuses on waiting around for something that is less likely to happen.

I agree that you need people on base to score runs, but the focus on home runs leads to a one-dimensional offense that is prone to slumps when the home runs don't come at just the right moment. If you can change your offense to focus more on hitting the ball in the park, you can put more pressure on the pitcher and the defense and build more momentum.

Regarding the original stat, today Uribe hit a two-run shot to end a streak of 11 straight solo homers. It was nice to see the Sox go on to score three additional runs without relying on homers.

Eddo144
05-08-2008, 09:12 PM
One of the problems with the OBP obsession, and the high value placed on guys like Swisher, is that you can't score from second on a walk.
Again, no one who values OBP highly here is saying that a walk is better than a hit. That's crazy. And guess what - hits count towards your OBP. Why do you think Ichiro consistently puts up good OBP numbers? He gets a lot of hits.

The easiest way to appreciate the value of on-base percentage is to look at the opposite of what it's measuring: out percentage. Outs are bad (duh). The higher your OBP, the fewer outs you make per plate appearance.

And why does being a high-walk team automatically mean you must play for the home run? Just because the Sox are currently in that mode, don't assume that, in terms of an organization, highly valuing OBP == swinging for the fences.

So, to sum up: when a hitter comes to bat
hit > walk
not making an out >> making an out
hit == not making an out
walk == not making an out