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View Full Version : Keith Foulke...game's best Closer


OfficerKarkovice
04-29-2002, 06:06 PM
http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/bp/1375627.html

Nice to see Keith getting some well deserved respect.

:keith
I AM THE MAN

doublem23
04-29-2002, 06:11 PM
Wow! ESPN giving the Sox some respect? The planets must be aligned or something.

kermittheefrog
04-30-2002, 12:27 AM
Originally posted by doublem23
Wow! ESPN giving the Sox some respect? The planets must be aligned or something.

It's not really ESPN, it's an article by one of the Baseball Prospectus crew.

Bmr31
04-30-2002, 02:38 AM
keith couldnt close a peanut butter jar under pressure.....i didnt read the article or check the source, but whoever said that, is a complete moron....

RedPinStripes
04-30-2002, 03:02 AM
Originally posted by Bmr31
keith couldnt close a peanut butter jar under pressure.....i didnt read the article or check the source, but whoever said that, is a complete moron....

Save situations are the only time he can pitch for some reason. A tie game.....forget it! I think he only blew 3 saves last year. I'll take that, but you can't tell manuel to keep him out of tie games.

Iwritecode
04-30-2002, 09:47 AM
Originally posted by Bmr31
keith couldnt close a peanut butter jar under pressure.....i didnt read the article or check the source, but whoever said that, is a complete moron....

Keith has been doing this for a few years now and the numbers say that he is one of the best in the game. Believe in them or not, the numbers usually don't lie. As for being under pressure, that seems to be when he performs best. If the Sox have a three run lead, he is constantly letting 1 or 2 runs score and then finally getting the third out with a couple men on base. He only had a few blown saves last year and two of them (against Seattle and Minnesota) were blown out of proportion because of the way the team was playing. If I remember correctly, Rivera blew a huge game last year. Against the D-backs...

sox_fan_4life
04-30-2002, 09:59 AM
Originally posted by Bmr31
keith couldnt close a peanut butter jar under pressure.....i didnt read the article or check the source, but whoever said that, is a complete moron....
The least you could have done was read the article before posting.

At the Baseball Prospectus web site, we track a statistic called Adjusted Runs Prevented (ARP) that measures the number of runs a reliever prevents compared to a league average pitcher. An extension of earlier work by Gary Skoog and Steve Schulman, ARP recognizes that a reliever's job is inherently situational: he's not just trying to keep his own runners from scoring, he's also trying to keep the runners he inherits from other pitchers from scoring.


Here are the top 15 relievers in preventing runs since 1998, through Wednesday's games:

ARP
Keith Foulke 85
Mariano Rivera 84
Derek Lowe 72
Scott Sullivan 72
Danny Graves 71
Jeff Zimmerman 61
Jim Mecir 56
Armando Benitez 56
Trevor Hoffman 56
Robb Nen 52
Greg Swindell 50
Mike Remlinger 49
Steve Kline 49
Billy Wagner 48
Dave Veres 48


Foulke finishes ahead of everyone, even the great Rivera, as the top run-preventing reliever of the past four years. To put those 85 runs prevented in perspective, that's about the number of runs above average that Brad Radke has been worth as a starter over the past four years. When you add in the fact that Foulke is doing nearly all of his pitching in high-leverage situations, it gives you a sense of the value a top reliever can add to a team.

cheeses_h_rice
04-30-2002, 10:13 AM
It's human nature to only remember the games Keith has blown, versus the games where he's held the fort down.

My problem with Keith this year and part of last year is that he never makes it easy. It's almost never a 1-2-3 9th to close out the game. If the Sox have a 2-run lead, he'll give up 1 run and have men on 2nd and 3rd before shutting the door. Or, if the Sox have a 1-run lead, he'll load the bases before inducing a game-ending DP. This I find incredibly maddening (and bad for my ticker).

bjmarte
04-30-2002, 10:19 AM
Originally posted by sox_fan_4life

The least you could have done was read the article before posting.

At the Baseball Prospectus web site, we track a statistic called Adjusted Runs Prevented (ARP) that measures the number of runs a reliever prevents compared to a league average pitcher. An extension of earlier work by Gary Skoog and Steve Schulman, ARP recognizes that a reliever's job is inherently situational: he's not just trying to keep his own runners from scoring, he's also trying to keep the runners he inherits from other pitchers from scoring.


Would this method then favor a reliever that puts runners in scoring position but doesn't let them score? Just asking.

Soxboyrob
04-30-2002, 10:27 AM
Originally posted by cheeses_h_rice
It's human nature to only remember the games Keith has blown, versus the games where he's held the fort down.

My problem with Keith this year and part of last year is that he never makes it easy. It's almost never a 1-2-3 9th to close out the game. If the Sox have a 2-run lead, he'll give up 1 run and have men on 2nd and 3rd before shutting the door. Or, if the Sox have a 1-run lead, he'll load the bases before inducing a game-ending DP. This I find incredibly maddening (and bad for my ticker).

Great point!!!
If Foulkey only blew one save per year, we'd all be lamenting the day that Keith blew that one big save in a game were a win would have pushed us over the top. Let's face it....all blown saves are very traumatic for both the fans and the closer. Look at the overall picture and Foulke has been great. Gotta admit, he's making me crazy thus far in 2002 and I do get the shivers when he comes into a save situation w/ teams like the Tribe, M's or A's(oh yeah, we haven't had a save situation against the A's since 2000). I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

Paulwny
04-30-2002, 12:26 PM
For this year, cbs sportsline ranks Foulke 27th in relief.

http://www.sportsline.com/u/baseball/mlb/2002/playerrank/releiver.htm

FanOf14
04-30-2002, 12:36 PM
how in heck is Mariano Rivera (sp?) ranked higher than Foulke?! From everything that I read, he has been biting the big one this year and last year he blew the World Series?! I really don't understand how rankings are done anymore...

foulkesfan11
04-30-2002, 12:54 PM
Originally posted by FanOf14
how in heck is Mariano Rivera (sp?) ranked higher than Foulke?! From everything that I read, he has been biting the big one this year and last year he blew the World Series?! I really don't understand how rankings are done anymore...

Mariano Rivera is overrated!

I have to admit, these days when Foulke comes in, I get pretty scared! Especially if we're leading by more than 2 runs!

Foulke You
04-30-2002, 01:30 PM
Anyone who says Foulke doesn't come through in the clutch hasn't been watching the same Foulke that I have since '99. How many times in 2000 did he come in and clean up Wunsch and Howry's mess? Anyone remember that game in Seattle where Howry loaded the bases with one out and guess who came in and struck out A-Rod and Edgar? Foulke. How quickly we forget the games Foulkey won as opposed to the relative few blown saves he has had the last few years.

As far as his 2002 performance thus far, whenever Foulke struggles it is related to his changeup which is his nastiest and best pitch. In the games Foulke struggles, he has trouble locating the changeup for a strike. This allows hitters to sit on his shortarm fastball which is not nearly as effective when he isn't locating his 80mph changeup. Foulke does have a slider however it is more of a "show me" pitch and he rarely throws it. Since Keith is my favorite player, I've watched him closely and if there is one thing I've noticed is that he goes through 1 or 2 of these spells of control trouble a season with the changeup. It never lasts long and in a short while you'll see the devestating Foulke changeup of yesterlore and AL batters beware!